granger
Senior Jockey
on a scale of 1-10 how do you all rate the stregth of the race?
for the purpose of clarity, let's not mix up strength and competitiveness
for the purpose of clarity, let's not mix up strength and competitiveness
Ladbrokes Trophy (ex Hennessy Gold Cup) Newbury Sat Nov 27th 2021
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
- Start date
Desert Orchid
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I rate it a very strong race based on how the current ratings, allied to the potential for further improvement, compare with what it takes to win an average renewal.
For the prize money on offer:
2 or 3
Handicaps are pretty moderate affairs these days. Less soft options for the best horses, increased prize money outside of Cheltenham, better handicapping and a weight reduction for horses over 140 (for example take one pound in four off the OR such that a 172 rated horse would have a handicap mark of 164) and we'd have a far more compelling spectacle.
6
Initially I thought it was very strong but then you see Brahma Bull carrying top weight and Potterman (who I like to an extent) only carrying 8lb more than he did in the Badger Beer and I’m not so sure.
The presence of Eklat De Rire, Fiddler (on his best form) & Cloth Cap keep it above average but I used to like it when there was a potential Gold Cup runner in here and it’s fair to say only EDR falls into that category but the fact he’s once run out of novice company in a nothing race and yet is near top weight says it all.
To put that into perspective; One Man had gone off favourite for the RSA and yet got in here with 10-0.
Desert Orchid
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The handicapping system has moved on a long way since back then. One Man was off 135 when he won this race, the same as Saturday's bottom weight Danny Whizzbang. Phil Smith was quick to recognise just how leniently novices were being treated and set about redressing it. Don't forget how lowly-rated other winners were:
Jodami was getting 25lbs from The Fellow.
Ever Blessed won off 136.
Teeton Mill 139 (rated 156 next time when winning the KG and 170 when 7/2 for the Gold Cup)
etc etc
Did we know in advance how good they were?
Completely agree it’s changed DO but should we really be satisfied that a novice such as Eklat De Rire is carrying second top weight in a Hennessy ?
The question was around the quality of the renewal and surely that says it all.
The question was around the quality of the renewal and surely that says it all.
Desert Orchid
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I'm not sure we can be confident about the quality until after the race.
It may be that at least one of the six rated 150+ is really a 170 waiting to happen. And it wouldn't guarantee them the win.
Yeah. The argument from 10 years ago was that you needed to have a stone in hand to win these marquee handicaps, as so many were unexposed (see Whitbread, Scots National, Paddy Power) It hasnt been the case for a while. They all feel one tiny notch above the Badger Beer or the Grimthorpe now.
Desert Orchid
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I'm of the opinion you still do.
The Badger Beer and Grimthorpe are still good handicaps in their own right and take a bit of winning. (Imho.)
Desert Orchid
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For the most part, yes, but doesn't mean some won't progress through to the G1s.
Bobs Worth wasn't so long ago.
Native River even more recently.
Could Fiddlerontheroof be a Gold Cup winner waiting to happen?
(I better back the bastert now after writing that :lol
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Desert Orchid
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Yes, although DRC gave 7lbs (12lbs if you ignore the claim) to The Conditional who later won the Ultima off 2lbs higher. Very smart form in and of itself. The race probably bottomed him.
Sizing Tennessee got an RPR of 166 (ran off 148, so deemed to have been 18lbs well in) but never ran again. The race probably finished him too. But he gave Elegant Escape a 10L beating and that one came out and won the Welsh National. Top handicap form. Dingo Dollar was 17L third but beaten only half that distance off a similar mark in the Grimthorpe, while Beware The Bear, 32L fourth, won at the New Year meeting before following up in the Ultima off 3lbs higher than at Newbury. Who knows what Sizing Tennessee might have done if he'd been able to race on.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
2 maybe, this race has often thrown up a 2nd season novice that goes on to be competitive in the Gold Cup.
With the exception of maybe 1 this year's race won't do that.
Sadly the chase handicapper has a lot to answer for when it comes to the state of NH racing in the UK. Treating the Hennessey as if its not the badger beers is part of the issue. In the past, the real beauty of the race was that it was the coming out party for an up-and-coming second season novice that could announce himself as a player for the King George and Gold Cup. That has stopped. They might end up in the Welsh National, (against Yala Enki and the likes), the Paddy Power or the Ultima. And if that floats your boat, that fine. There is a place for it. But it has stopped having that magic of seeing a potential superstar like a One Man or a Strong Flow or a Teeton Mill a long while back. Talking about the relative form of Dingo Dollar and Beware the Bear is proof enough.
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Desert Orchid
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It didn't throw up Gold Cup horses year after year in its heyday, just every so often, and Native River and Bobs Worth show that it can still happen. Maybe Sizing Tennessee could have run in the Gold Cup. And, as I said earlier, this year's race might yet throw up a contender.
I wouldn't be rushing to judge. It's still the best handicap chase of the year.
I wouldn't be rushing to judge. It's still the best handicap chase of the year.
Not sure its the best handicap chase run this week.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Think my two against the field will be Danny Whizzbang and the Hollow Ginge.
Grasshopper
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I like last season's Reynoldstown form, and will be looking to Remastered to recover some of my NH Chase losses from March.
Gillard knocks-off 3lbs meaning Remastered runs from an effective mark of 143, and I think that makes him a nicely-handicapped horse. Demachine would be my other one against the field.
Gillard knocks-off 3lbs meaning Remastered runs from an effective mark of 143, and I think that makes him a nicely-handicapped horse. Demachine would be my other one against the field.
They’re sure to go a fair clip so I want a horse with the pace to lie up but with stamina too. Like that’s not stating the obvious, but the one to tick those boxes for me is Enrillo, who’s also the experience of a big field from the Bet365.
And he’s gone well fresh in the past.
And he’s gone well fresh in the past.
jinnyj
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We ended up being given Couldn’t Be Better who won the race in 1995 and was subsequently 3rd in a Gold Cup.
archie
Senior Jockey
Presumably the Irish horses arrived safely before the winds got up. The memory of Kemboy being prevented from running off 157 is a painful one.
Tanlic
Banned member
Does to Jonjo:lol:
Someone pointed out earlier that only 3 horses have won the Hennessy twice but failed to mention not too many have tried.
There's no doubt he was mega impressive last year and this is not exactly a Denman year.
Punters never gave it a thought when they were lumping onto Cloth Cap for the National but now they have deserted him in their droves.
That is what makes no sense. This is a walk in the park in comparison to the Grand National.
If he gets a soft lead gawd help those who try to catch him.
Granted the extra weight could be his undoing but he's not a small horse and it's not like he's being asked to do an Arkle and give away 30lbs plus all round.
This is a very close knit h'cap unlike some years and he has a better chance than most IMO
Desert Orchid
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Now that he is back out to 14/1 and with extra places on offer, I can't not back Cloth Cap. I got 12s boosted to 13+/1 and the seventh place. A front-running ride like last year's will make him very difficult to kick out of the frame.
I still believe it's a high-quality race but accept that it depends on one's definition of "quality". I thought the same last year but Cloth Cap took a lot of his opponents out of their comfort zone and I can see him trying to do the same. I still think one or two of the second-season chasers will hang on to the pace and run him out of it but can't be sure which ones it will be. It will be a new experience for most of them, racing at his pace.