Ladbrokes Trophy (ex Hennessy Gold Cup) Newbury Sat Nov 27th 2021

Totally agree, of course he's a lot better than his old mark. If he was still left on the same mark he'd be 1/4 to win the race again.

He absolutely trounced the very talented ASO (158) by over 7 lengths and gave him 4lbs with Two For Gold (154) receiving 1lb 10 lengths back in 3rdback in third.

ASO had run Two for Gold to a neck with 11stone 12 on his back in his previous race

Cloth Cap has gone up 6lbs for that win and to my mind he is far from badly handicapped off 154. He may well be well in
 
I'm inclined to side with Euro on this.

Aso has never won over further than 2m4f, and boasts a grand total of three chase wins since 2016, and I dunno if that qualifies as "very talented' myself. There's no real knocking the performance, as Two For Gold is a solid enough marker, but he was bumped-up another 6lbs for it.

That Kelso win has limited relevance, imv, insofar as Cloth Cap's handicapping position for this Hennessy/Ladbroke is concerned. The fact is that he is now rated fully 18lbs higher than when he won in 2020; which tells you all you need to know about the different challenge he faces this time.

KG and Gold Cup entries are de-rigour for horses rated in the mid-150's, and I wouldn't be reading a great deal into those myself.
 
Purely on a handicapping basis, I accept that Cloth Cap appears to face a difficult task but he looked better than a handicapper both in this race and at Kelso where, at the weights, he also appeared to have a very difficult task at the weights but shrugged it off comfortably.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'm inclined to side with Euro on this.

Aso has never won over further than 2m4f, and boasts a grand total of three chase wins since 2016, and I dunno if that qualifies as "very talented' myself. There's no real knocking the performance, as Two For Gold is a solid enough marker, but he was bumped-up another 6lbs for it.

That Kelso win has limited relevance, imv, insofar as Cloth Cap's handicapping position for this Hennessy/Ladbroke is concerned. The fact is that he is now rated fully 18lbs higher than when he won in 2020; which tells you all you need to know about the different challenge he faces this time.

KG and Gold Cup entries are de-rigour for horses rated in the mid-150's, and I wouldn't be reading a great deal into those myself.
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When I said very talented this is not the Gold Cup we are talking about.

I am a bit biased as Aso to me has always looked like a horse who could win a big one someday.

I backed him when he was 2nd to Frodon in the Ryanair and he has contested some top class races without winning collecting nearly 400,000 pounds along the way

He's a follow over a cliff horse to me..

Cloth Cap ( edit not Aso) wouldn't be the first horse to carry a low weight to victory in the Hennessey and go on to bigger and better thins.

One Man won this with 10st and went on to win The King George and the QMCC and over a dozen good races.

I just think he is more of a 11st7lbs horse than a 10st horse so I will cross my fingers and stick to him
 
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Grasshopper said:
KG and Gold Cup entries are de-rigour for horses rated in the mid-150's, and I wouldn't be reading a great deal into those myself.
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At this stage GC entries are only 'Possible' (not sure what the criteria are for meriting that in the entries for the horses at the RP site) and of the top ten currently in the weights, only Royale Pagaille (B,K), Cloth Cap (K), Next Destination (B) and FOTR (B,K) hold entries for the Betfair (B) and/or KG (K).

I might be interested in anything in the bottom ten with those entries, mind.
 
Desert Orchid said:
At this stage GC entries are only 'Possible' (not sure what the criteria are for meriting that in the entries for the horses at the RP site) and of the top ten currently in the weights, only Royale Pagaille (B,K), Cloth Cap (K), Next Destination (B) and FOTR (B,K) hold entries for the Betfair (B) and/or KG (K).

I might be interested in anything in the bottom ten with those entries, mind.
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Sirah Du Lac officially lowest-rated of all entries in the King George (143), but has no Hennessy entry.

Kitty's Light the only other Hennessy entry (149) to also hold a KG entry.
 
At the prices quite like Annamix @ 25-1 with the Sponsors

Ran two solid races this autumn since trying 3 miles, and could improve further if getting soft or heavy ground
 
First serious bet in the race: Fiddlerontheroof 8/1

I noted the large Tizzard team earlier and wondered how he would play it. He's down to three and well though the likes of Mister Malarkey and Copperhead might be able to run in their own right, I don't see them winning this. They hold entries for the Welsh National. He took out LIT to win at Ascot so he must reckon FOTR, who holds a King George entry, has a serious chance in this. If the price holds through the week I can always go in again but I can see it gradually contracting.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, [Cloth Cap]'s entered for the KIng George and a 'possible' for the Gold Cup so they must think he's a lot better than his mark.

He was mightily impressive last year and reportedly had a wind problem in the National, for which he's had an op. A modest reappearance got his mark down a little and a repeat performance of last year's demolition job would give him a real shout before factoring in the possibility of further improvement.

He's very much on my radar.
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Just doing my initial trawl of the ratings and Cloth Cap is throwing up an unusual occurrence.


After he won at Kelso just before the National, his OR went up to 162. Obviously he didn't run his race (see above) but I note that by the time he reappeared this season his mark had been brought back down to 156.

Barjon, in another thread, quotes the handicapper saying they wouldn't usually drop a horse on the back of one bad run so I have to wonder if people had put pressure on the handicapper, Hendo-style, to drop him. The trainer? The owner?

RPRs for the Kelso race already accepted that everything else failed to run its race but even they put the winner on 165.

Following what - to me at any rate - was a perfectly satisfactory reappearance, he's down to 154 for this race, therefore only 4lbs higher than he had been at Kelso.

There has to be a chance that he might be one of a number of extremely well-handicapped runners.
 
I've done Kittys light 10/1.
I could also do another and Cloth cap,fiddlerontheroof and the hollow ginger all mentioned are 3 good ones.
Cloth cap was impressive last year,
 
You could make a case for just about everything in the race. It's a belter and the form will be worth following.
 
My first trawl through the handicap:
(Can't adjust the column widths so some lateral scrolling is necessary.)

[TABLE="width: 780"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.[/TD]
[TD]Form[/TD]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Wt[/TD]
[TD]Trainer[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON
176+[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10 [/TD]
[TD]73P-05 [/TD]
[TD] Mister Malarky[/TD]
[TD]10-12[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard[/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 22 [/TD]
[TD]/7P54- [/TD]
[TD] Danny Whizzbang[/TD]
[TD]9-13[/TD]
[TD]Milton Harris[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD]?? § y[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7 [/TD]
[TD]2223-1 [/TD]
[TD]Fiddlerontheroof[/TD]
[TD]11-0[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard[/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]180[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18 [/TD]
[TD]50U2P- [/TD]
[TD] Cloudy Glen[/TD]
[TD]10-4[/TD]
[TD]V Williams[/TD]
[TD]140[/TD]
[TD]180[/TD]
[TD]??[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 20 [/TD]
[TD]11P2-7 [/TD]
[TD] Full Back[/TD]
[TD]10-2[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[TD]p v nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9 [/TD]
[TD]0/5F-4 [/TD]
[TD] Brave Eagle[/TD]
[TD]10-13[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson[/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[TD]d?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4 [/TD]
[TD]311P-4 [/TD]
[TD] Cloth Cap[/TD]
[TD]11-4[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O'Neill[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[TD]? p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12 [/TD]
[TD]2U1-P2 [/TD]
[TD] Potterman[/TD]
[TD]10-12[/TD]
[TD]Alan King[/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD]? p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15 [/TD]
[TD]143F-7 [/TD]
[TD] Canelo[/TD]
[TD]10-9[/TD]
[TD]Alan King[/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]175[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5 [/TD]
[TD]-5P332 [/TD]
[TD] Annamix[/TD]
[TD]11-4[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16 [/TD]
[TD]4UPP-2 [/TD]
[TD] The Hollow Ginge[/TD]
[TD]10-6[/TD]
[TD]Nigel T-Davies[/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 19 [/TD]
[TD]2911-3 [/TD]
[TD] Fortescue[/TD]
[TD]10-3[/TD]
[TD]Henry Daly[/TD]
[TD]139[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]? p? nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2 [/TD]
[TD]0-1023 [/TD]
[TD] Brahma Bull[/TD]
[TD]11-8[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8 [/TD]
[TD]712-22 [/TD]
[TD] Kitty's Light[/TD]
[TD]10-13[/TD]
[TD]C Williams[/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]p nov?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1 [/TD]
[TD]/25PU- [/TD]
[TD] Chris's Dream[/TD]
[TD]11-12[/TD]
[TD]H De Bromhead[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6 [/TD]
[TD]3P/2-1 [/TD]
[TD] Ontheropes[/TD]
[TD]11-3[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[TD]+p
nov?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 21 [/TD]
[TD]1F11-8 [/TD]
[TD] One More Fleurie[/TD]
[TD]10-1[/TD]
[TD]Ian Williams[/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3 [/TD]
[TD]/11U-1 [/TD]
[TD] Eklat De Rire[/TD]
[TD]11-4[/TD]
[TD]H De Bromhead[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13 [/TD]
[TD]21P13- [/TD]
[TD] Enrilo[/TD]
[TD]10-11[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14 [/TD]
[TD]1115-3 [/TD]
[TD] Remastered[/TD]
[TD]10-10[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe[/TD]
[TD]146[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]+p nov?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17 [/TD]
[TD]/1132- [/TD]
[TD] Demachine[/TD]
[TD]10-6[/TD]
[TD]Kerry Lee[/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11 [/TD]
[TD]/PP50- [/TD]
[TD] Copperhead[/TD]
[TD]10-12[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard[/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]176? nov[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
But he seems to have taken steps towards unfucking him since. He's something like 15lbs higher this time than last year and, as I recall, there were plenty prepared to argue that he would have won with another stone on his back then.

I'm not convinced the Kelso race was that bad. I can accept that it must have been difficult to rate but you could also argue that it wasn't unlike the Betfair Chase last weekend when APT was so impressive in a race that may have fallen apart but it doesn't mean the winner isn't very good indeed.

I'm keeping a very open mind about Cloth Cap. I haven't backed him and I don't know if I will but I certainly respect him and wouldn't put anyone off backing him.
 
Euronymous said:
And then the handicapper fucked him after a pointless win against deadwood at Kelso. Has no chance of repeating.
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I in a sense agree with you but let's not forget who trains him. There was a bit of TLC taking place before the Hennessy and he won with a load in hand by a long looking 10 lengths.

So the handicapper does the norm he would have if something had won the race by a short head and puts him up 12lbs including the 2lbs he dropped him for his previous run Duh!!!

We were soon to find out it wasn't nearly enough when he absolutely tanked through his next race at Kelso and was instantly made favourite for the Grand National despite another rise in the weights.

Unfortunately something went wrong in the National and he was quickly pulled up after he seemed to wind himself.

He went up 8lbs for Kelso which was fair considering how easily he won and punters couldn't get enough of him off 148

Now that 8lbs which IMO wouldn't have even come close to stopping him at Kelso comes into play punters are taking a back seat.

The same TLC policy took place at Cheltenham in prep for this and the way he gets from fence to fence a win is not out of the question.
 
Still with Euro on this. An 'easy 10L' doesn't mean much, when you're being asked to lug 18lbs more for 3m2f.

If Cloth Cap is good enough to win again, it tells you how bad a race it is, rather than how good a race it is, imo.

I will be amazed if there's nothing better handicapped.
 
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Grasshopper said:
An 'easy 10L' doesn't mean much, when you're being asked to lug 18lbs more for 3m2f.
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In principle, I agree too.

Grasshopper said:
If Cloth Cap is good enough to win again, it tells you how bad a race it is, rather than how good a race it is, imo.
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Depends. If he runs to the same performance rating as when winning last year than I could understand the sentiment. But he is young enough to have improved further so could - in theory - win and beat some seriously well-handicapped rivals.


Grasshopper said:
I will be amazed if there's nothing better handicapped.
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I would stop short of "amazed" but it will probably detract slightly from the race (certainly in my eyes) if a second-season chaser doesn't prove as well-handicapped as some of the better winners of this race. Then again, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the Kelso race can be taken at face value and/or that the horse might improve again into this season. He's lightly enough raced to do so.
 
Can't be having Eklat De Rire on this ground. He was already feeling the pinch behind Monkfish and Fiddlerontheroof after omly 12 fences on similar ground.

The horses weighted 11stone and over are all capable of wining this and I expect it will come down to jumping and that's where Cloth Cap can shine again.

Potterman and Enrillo cross swords again the former seems a crazy price considering how closely handicapped they are.

The fact Ontheropes went off at 7/1 at Limerick could mean that was a very poor race he won. I'd be happier having a place bet (5) on Annamix who is rarely unplaced.

2 against the field Cloth Cap and Fiddlerontheroof
 
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