Suny Bay wasn’t really the thrust of my argument as you know DO, but as you mention him, people knew exactly how good he was - or at least had a very good idea - considering he won it from a rating of (as you say) 162 on his 12th chase start. The top-rated that day was previous King George winner, Gold Cup placer, and multiple G1 winner Barton Bank.
This renewal has a top-rated of 162 in Ballyoptic - a 10yo who had won once at G2 level in 15 chase starts.
In the last 10 renewals, four have had a lower top-rated, and five have had a higher top-rated. No-one is saying that the race isn’t competitive, but it is undisputably (imo) an “average” or “pedestrian” renewal - even just looking back over the last 10 seasons - let alone going further back when some seriously highly-rated animals used to routinely participate.
I should add that it’s not like I’m not going to have a bet in it! :lol:
I genuinely did think you were using SB and Denman as examples of the kind of class you look for in the race.
Denman turned out an exceptional horse but on the day I couldn't fancy him to beat Snowy Morning who was 18lbs better off for a ten-length beating in the RSA but fell on the first circuit at Newbury. Later form suggested he wouldn't have beaten Denman but the ones Denman eventually did beat were rated only 142 and 135.
The Hennessy, by its very nature, is very seldom a pedestrian race in my opinion. It can't be. It's the most valuable handicap chase forby* the Grand National. Horses are put away for a year for it or big improvers work their way into it.
How much did we really know in advance about the merit of the last ten winners?
What's to say this year's winners of the Welsh, Aintree, Scottish or Irish Nationals aren't in the field? Or maybe even the Gold Cup? I admit that's far-fetched because the RSA principals don't run but it was, in my opinion, a very high-class RSA (Champ's subsequent OR is 4lbs higher than Denman's), and the fifth and sixth plus faller Copperhead are prominent in the market, but Secret Investor could end up in the Gold Cup, as could Vinndication (OR 161 so potentially a 171+ second-season chaser).
Most of the best past winners were second-season chasers on steep curves but when they ran in the race they were running off marks that totally under-rated them. That's the scenario I'm anticipating again next weekend.
By the end of the season we could be looking back at this race asking how the fvck X got into the Hennessy off that mark?
Native River was rated only 155 when he won it!
(*for the pedants in the room, this is a Scottish word, pronounced 'for by' and meaning 'apart from', just to save you time posting about it.)
