Ladbrokes Trophy

Desert Orchid said:
I genuinely did think you were using SB and Denman as examples of the kind of class you look for in the race.

Denman turned out an exceptional horse but on the day I couldn't fancy him to beat Snowy Morning who was 18lbs better off for a ten-length beating in the RSA but fell on the first circuit at Newbury. Later form suggested he wouldn't have beaten Denman but the ones Denman eventually did beat were rated only 142 and 135.

The Hennessy, by its very nature, is very seldom a pedestrian race in my opinion. It can't be. It's the most valuable handicap chase forby* the Grand National. Horses are put away for a year for it or big improvers work their way into it.

How much did we really know in advance about the merit of the last ten winners?

2010Diamond Harry710-00
2011Carruthers810-04
2012Bobs Worth711-06
2013Triolo D'Alene611-01
2014Many Clouds711-06
2015Smad Place811-04
2016Native River611-01
2017Total Recall810-08
2018Sizing Tennessee1011-03
2019De Rasher Counter710-10

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What's to say this year's winners of the Welsh, Aintree, Scottish or Irish Nationals aren't in the field? Or maybe even the Gold Cup? I admit that's far-fetched because the RSA principals don't run but it was, in my opinion, a very high-class RSA (Champ's subsequent OR is 4lbs higher than Denman's), and the fifth and sixth plus faller Copperhead are prominent in the market, but Secret Investor could end up in the Gold Cup, as could Vinndication (OR 161 so potentially a 171+ second-season chaser).

Most of the best past winners were second-season chasers on steep curves but when they ran in the race they were running off marks that totally under-rated them. That's the scenario I'm anticipating again next weekend.

By the end of the season we could be looking back at this race asking how the fvck X got into the Hennessy off that mark?

Native River was rated only 155 when he won it!

(*for the pedants in the room, this is a Scottish word, pronounced 'for by' and meaning 'apart from', just to save you time posting about it.)
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I meant “pedestrian” as in “fairly ordinary” rather than “will be run at a crawl”, DO.

Not sure if this clarification helps or not.

I understand that some of the less exposed types may improve a ton, but you can’t k ow that before the race - which is when we’re making the assessment. As things stand, it doesn’t look a great renewal, but we may view it differently in hindsight - that much I am prepared to concede.
 
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Last 10 years top-rated as follows:

A fair few of them had achieved a deal more when running from top-weight, than Balloptic has, imo.

2019: Elegant Escape - 160
2018: Black Corton - 157
2017: Coneygree - 165 (Gold Cup winner)
2016: Smad Place - 166 (Hennessy winner)
2015: Saphir Du Rheu - 163
2014: Houblon Des Obeaux - 157
2013: Cape Tribulation - 158
2012: Tidal Bay - 166
2011: Neptune Collonges - 168 (Lexus and Irish Gold Cup winner)
2010: Denman - 182 (RSA, Gold Cup and Hennessey winner)

At least half of the last ten runnings are/were demonstrably stronger races than this years....imho.
 
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So far as the Gold Cup is concerned it seems an increasing tendency for likely winners not to be highly tried beforehand - just given a couple of easies. Maybe that’s why they are beginning to be absent from Hennessy et al.
 
Double J said:
2017: Toal Recall, Whisper, Regal Encore where the top 3.
2018: Sizing Tennesse, Elegant Escape, Dingo Dollar
2019: De Rasher Counter, The Conditional, Elegant Escape
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2017 - Coneygree (a Gold Cup winner) was top weight on 165. Second top was Whisper (161), beaten a whisker by Might Bite in the RSA. Next in the weights was American with a string of 1s next to his name and touted by many as the next Gold Cup winner but running off 157. But everybody (except me!) knew Total Recall was going to win off 147 and the front two were miles clear of a strong field. It was one of the best Hennessys ever and arguably bottomed the first two.

2018 - The top 12 when the weights came out were:
THISTLECRACK
340
10
165
11-12
167
DON POLI (IRE)
657
9
160
11-07
182
AL BOUM PHOTO (FR)
221
6
159
11-06
171
TERREFORT (FR)
20
5
158
11-05
173
SNOW FALCON (IRE)
28
8
158
11-05
169
UN TEMPS POUR TOUT (IRE)
21
9
158
11-05
181
VIRGILIO (FR)
28
9
157
11-04
169
BLACK CORTON (FR)
28
7
157
11-04
170
CLAN DES OBEAUX (FR)
233
6
157
11-04
174
KEMBOY (FR)
218
6
157
11-04
172
TOTAL RECALL (IRE)
220
9
156
11-03
171
ELEGANT ESCAPE (IRE)
20
6
155
11-02
168

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Lacking in class?

2019 - I can accept that last year's race lacked obvious class and the younger ones didn't really go on to fulfil their potential but there were still plenty of subsequent winners of big Saturday handicaps there. This time last year I couldn't get stuck into the form on account of my eyes so I don't have any ratings for the race. I just know I didn't back De Rasher Counter!
 
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Dunno that you can count ‘when the weight came out’, Dessie. The race gets measured - in terms of how classy it is - based on who makes it to the tape.

FWIW, I thought the 2017 race was a very good one, for the reasons you give. It’s just that this year’s doesn’t seem to have anything like that profile.
 
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barjon said:
So far as the Gold Cup is concerned it seems an increasing tendency for likely winners not to be highly tried beforehand - just given a couple of easies. Maybe that’s why they are beginning to be absent from Hennessy et al.
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Dunno that I’d bracket the King George, Savills, Costswold and Irish GC as ‘easies’, barjon, but there does seem to be an emerging trend that connections of the best of the established chasers choose not to give lumps away in this race.....which is a right shame, really.
 
Point taken, GH. I used the entries because that was what I had on file. I didn't have my ratings for the day in the usual place on my pc. I sometimes amend a previous document and inadvertently save over what I had. The chances are I saved to it somewhere else on the computer but have no idea where.

On paper it was more like a Saturday handicap on the day but they were strung out all the way up the Newbury straight at the end and the winner got an RPR of 166 for it and a very fast TS mark.

That's the kind of thing I mean about it not working out as an average race.
 
granger said:
Do you have the winner picked Mo and this is a reason behind you going strong on the quality of this race?
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I'd like to think one of my current portfolio of outsiders will win but before his withdrawal I had envisaged TOTG doing a Denman. I was very confident of a wide-margin win.

In his absence, I'm happy to wait until I've trawled through the decs on Monday evening.

Obviously if I land upon a strong fancy I'll put it up once I've taken a price.

But I always look upon this race, regardless of how it may appear in advance, as the best handicap chase of the season, form-wise.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Not sure if there already is a thread (if so maybe mods can delete this and bump the other one) but Marb's comment about Siruh Du Lac on the PP thread made me think we should have one to discuss that kind of issue.

Ruby mentioned the other day about one of the Whittington horses looking more like a Ladbrokes Trophy horse than a 2.5 miler. Can't remember which. Was it Simply The Betts?
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So if he runs will stay, DO?
 
I wouldn't even have expected him to run. I expected him to go for the Massey-Ferguson.

D Pipe mentions him in an interview on the RTV site. He seems keen to give him the chance to prove he stays.
 
The BBC weather forecast for Newbury this week shows light rain on Wednesday but otherwise low chance of rain. My diminishing memories of this race over the years are that it is usually a test of stamina in soft ground. I've played up returns from Potterman LTO who ideally wants good ground. Maybe, just maybe.
 
Another outsider bleeping on the edge of my radar is Ardlethen 33/1.

I haven't backed it and have no idea right now if I will but around this time last year I remember an interview with Skelton in which he was asked for one to keep an eye on and he nominated this one, saying he really rated it.

Clearly things haven't gone to plan so far - or have they? - as he hasn't come anywhere close to living up to that kind of reputation on the track yet he's still in the most valuable handicap outside of the National, with SOTG the only other stable entry and we already know that one's a shiter.

I just wonder...
 
Putting Ardlethen up has prompted me to mention Danny Whizzbang (novice chase cross form), who I'd back at current odds at a big each way price if I knew they intended to run.
 
Saturday confirmations

Ballyoptic Vinndication Secret Investor Beware The Bear Kildisart Sam Brown Copperhead Regal Encore Aye Right Mister Malarky Black Op Two For Gold The Conditional
La Bague Au Roi Danny Whizzbang The Hollow Ginge Potterman Ardlethen Cloth Cap
 
Thanks, DG.

Three of my four early longshots still there.

Siruh Du Lac presumably goes for the Massey-Ferguson, as I'd hoped.
 
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I've just completed my initial trawl of the field.

I would respectfully suggest anyone of a mind to knock the quality should have a closer look. There is an abundance of class and potential in the race.

Not having been able to study most of last season, I had just gone with the notion that that quality more or less had to be up to scratch knowing the importance of the race but I was pretty gobsmacked at how many of the field could genuinely be fancied to beat my rating 'norm' for the race.

Now I'm looking forward to the race even more.
 
Copied from the Longshot thread:

I've now done my ratings for the Ladbrokes Trophy ("Hennessy" to me) and have backed yet another longshot but I reckon this one will be my nomination to win the race come the weekend: Ardlethen 33/1.

In a TV interview about a year ago, Skelton was asked for one horse to keep an eye on. This is the one he nominated, saying he really liked it.

It's chance might not be obvious (hence the price) but it was a 140 hurdler two seasons ago, so should have been a 150 novice chaser last season and a 160 chaser into this, his second season. He gets to race off 138.

First time up last season he beat Lisnagar Oscar, rated 145 when running in the 2019 Albert Bartlett. After not really taking to fences the latter came back and won the Stayers’ Hurdle in March. Ardlethen then took on the 164-rated Sam Spinner at Wetherby but couldn't match him on the run-in after challenging strongly at the last.

I suspect that might have been when the plan for this race was hatched.

He was slightly disappointing behind Danny Whizzbang in the good 3m novice chase at this meeting and is now 7lbs better off.

He was then hampered in running and lost a shoe at Warwick, for which he meets Two For Gold on 10lbs better terms.

He returned to Wetherby for the Towton and ran a good second to Newtide (which I backed in a good race last weekend because I have a good figure for it) but then disappointed in the Kim Muir, but that might have been part of the plan to get his mark down again.

He reappeared over 2½ miles at Carlisle behind Imperial Aura but wasn't really asked any serious questions, at the same time showing something like his better novice form, and we know what Imperial Aura did on Saturday. In the same race were Sam Brown (with whom he's 14lbs better off) and Black Op (12lbs) and his form works out at 14lbs below Imperial Aura, which would put the latter in this off 152 compared with the 157 he was rated on Saturday and for which he emerged with an RPR of 167.

He might just be an unreliable woof-woof but Skelton only had two in the race before today's declaration stage and he's left this one in.

I wouldn't be surprised if he won and went up enough to make the cut for the Grand National in which he might still be interesting.

Anyway, at 33/1 I can afford to pay to find out.
 
Typically competitive, and you could make some sort of a case for most of these, so I'll be firing two arrows at the board with Secret Investor and Kildisart (slightly worried about trainer form for the latter).

I'll probably throw Potterman (feasibly weighted on Chepstow run behind Secret Investor, as pointed out by Desert Orchid) and perhaps Two For Gold, at the forecasts and tricasts.
 
What about Copperhead? He looked a quality beast last year. That run last time though, if he'd blown up in the straight fair enough but he was gone way before he should have been. Can envisage a massive drift or plunge on the day. Could go either way.

The principals from the Ultima - The Conditional, Vinndication, Kildistart - they are all up a fair few pounds for that race
 
Had him on the shortlist....of 16! :lol:

You'd have to be worried about him, based on his last couple of runs. Too short in the betting for me to want to chance, and others around the same price look much more likely to give their running.
 
Yes, Copperhead - second season novice looked to be going places, could easily get back on track and I wouldn't put anyone off it.

It really is that kind of race, the kind that good Saturday winner Regal Encore could run to his very best - and even improve since my last rating for him suggested he had improved despite his age - and still not get in the first ten.

The challenges involved in trying to solve the puzzle attract me as much as winning money from it.

(Well, almost... :lol:)
 
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