Ladbrokes Trophy

Desert Orchid said:
Thanks, DG.

Three of my four early longshots still there.

Siruh Du Lac presumably goes for the Massey-Ferguson, as I'd hoped.
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Siruh Du Lac not entered for the Caspian Gold Cup today strangely enough. I thought that was the race they were touting for if they missed the Ladbrokes?
 
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Marb said:
Siruh Du Lac not entered for the Caspian Gold Cup today strangely enough. I thought that was the race they were touting for if they missed the Ladbrokes?
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That's a surprise. Maybe it pick up an injury last time.

An alternative scenario is that they are looking at the National for it. If they thought it would stay the Hennessy trip, the National would also be on the agenda. Might be a sight to behold over the big fences.

Or the Topham, now that I think about it.
 
Marb said:
Siruh Du Lac not entered for the Caspian Gold Cup today strangely enough. I thought that was the race they were touting for if they missed the Ladbrokes?
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Especially when Pipe was on Racing TV on Sunday saying that he was gonna run in the Hennessey.
 
Looks like Sam Brown is the only scratching at the final dec stage.

It's very easy to see why the single-figure priced runners are where they are in the market and I reckon the same strength of case could be made for each of them.

On adjusted RPRs there's only a 7lbs span (165-172) across the entire field but those bare figures don't take into account curves and potential.

Hope the ground stays decent. I much prefer the biggest races to be run on good ground. I think that allows class to prevail.
 
I wish they’d send La Bague au Rio to the paddocks. They say she had a bad season last year and has come back looking great but I don’t think she’s quite up to this level. But then I am of a wrap them up in cotton wool mentality.
 
I can’t get away from Copperhead. Price isn’t the best, but had a prep for this race and is the horse with the biggest scope for improvement.

I’ve had savours on Danny Whizzbang at big prices so they’ll be my two darts I think.
 
Double J said:
I can’t get away from Copperhead. Price isn’t the best, but had a prep for this race and is the horse with the biggest scope for improvement.

I’ve had savours on Danny Whizzbang at big prices so they’ll be my two darts I think.
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Ground will be too lively surely. I've gone with Cloth Cap on that basis
 
Euronymous said:
Ground will be too lively surely. I've gone with Cloth Cap on that basis
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I can see your case for him, but I can also see a case for half the field. If I could trust La Bague Au Roi she’d be a certainty, but my own feeling is she’s gone at the game.

When Cloth Cap is considered to have a chance, shows what a really poor renewal it is. Topofthegame would/could have been an absolute certainty. But gutted tbh about him not running.
 
My thoughts at this stage:


CPB – Current best price (teatime Thursday)

[TABLE="width: 499"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]CBP
[/TD]
[TD]Comment
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ballyoptic
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[TD]Career best two starts back when giving Valtor 7lbs and 8½L beating, and Royal Encore 11lbs & 10L beating (Asc, sft, £80k) so maybe still improving despite age; ground maybe going against but only btn nose in ’18 Scottish National (£250k) on gd. Probably over-priced.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vinndication
[/TD]
[TD]6/1f
[/TD]
[TD]I went low with Charlie Hall form but was probably only prepping. Won’t get away with fiddly jumping here and can jump right at times, which he can’t afford to do. Still improving but curve maybe flattening and vulnerable to big improvers. 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time pieces.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Secret Investor
[/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[TD]Only 3lbs & 2¾L behind Native River in Denman here in Feb; improved again next time when giving Potterman 11lbs & 7L beating (Chp, gd, £30k); up 6lbs but 3lbs well in on future ratings.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Beware
The Bear
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[TD]Lightly raced last two seasons; close 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in this last season off this mark but profile generally of an improver; could step up again.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kildisart
[/TD]
[TD]8/1
[/TD]
[TD]Seemed to struggle for form last season but back to best in Festival hcap (surprise!) in 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time pieces on again here; probably vulnerable to big improvers.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Copperhead
[/TD]
[TD]9/1
[/TD]
[TD]2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-season nov; impressive in Reynoldstown but well beaten when fell in RSA but big improvement likely this season; serious chance.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Regal Encore
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[TD]Recent Asc win arguably career-best so still improving? Probably best at Asc but has form here (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in this in ’17); don’t rule out but easy to prefer others.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Aye Right
[/TD]
[TD]15/2
[/TD]
[TD]2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-season nov; improvement may have already come in Kelso hcap (form franked) and Charlie Hall. Further improvement possible but vulnerable to other 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-season novices who haen’t shown their improvement yet. Respected.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mister Malarkey
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[TD]Took time to show 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-season improvement last season but won £100k hcap at Kempton in Feb and only 3lb higher here. Probably prepping behind Regal Encore at Asc last month; vulnerable if no improvement.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Black Op
[/TD]
[TD]17/2
[/TD]
[TD]2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-season nov; close second in Kauto Star on Boxing Day; not seen again until reappearance behind Imp Aura at Carlisle (form franked); that trip too short and big improvement expected; major player.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Two For Gold
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[TD]2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-season nov; I went high with reappearance form so don’t anticipate as much improvement as other 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-seaon runners; could easily be placed and good back-up for Vinndication.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]The Conditional
[/TD]
[TD]8/1
[/TD]
[TD]2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-season improvement last season ended with Ultima win; 8lbs higher here and further improvement likely but place prospects at best in this company.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]La Bague
Au Roi
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[TD]smart nov ’18-’19 (won G1 Flogas); 2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-season improvement didn’t happen so questions to be answered but could be fancied if/when improvement comes.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Danny Whizzbang
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[TD]2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-season nov but big market drifter this week; backed to 4/1f for Badger but bbv and Cobden opts for SI; risky but clearly talented.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]The Hollow Ginge
[/TD]
[TD]66/1
[/TD]
[TD]2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-season nov; disappointed in NH Ch; UR 1[SUP]st[/SUP] on reappearance but improvement highly likely and very interesting longshot.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Potterman
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[TD]2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-season improvement already evident in last two runs but 5lbs well-in; weighted closely with SI but twice the price; vulnerable to others whose improvement yet to come; player.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ardlethen
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[TD]2[SUP]nd[/SUP]-season nov; well under the radar but lots of positive form links with better horses; reportedly highly regarded; on pick of form has the winning of this.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cloth Cap
[/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[TD]Gd 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in ’19 Scottish National; couldn’t improve on that last season; hard to see where the improvement is going to come from this time.
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Kildisart for me. Will love the good ground and convinced he's better on a flatter track.

Nicholls probably frustrated Secret Investor blew his mark at Chepstow as the going will be bang on for him, but can't help but feel he's in the grip of the handicapper now.
 
Good write-up, Dessie.

On a point of pedantry, is your use of the term ‘2nd-season novice’ accurate? I always thought that this was reserved for second-season chasers who had failed to win in their novice season, so a few of these wouldn’t qualify for that description?

Otherwise, thought-provoking stuff, and I’m now off to have another look at Black Op, who I was previously happy to dismiss as a bit gutless.

Thanks, you bas*tard. :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ardlethen 2nd season nov; well under the radar but lots of positive form links with better horses; reportedly highly regarded; on pick of form has the winning of this.


Cloth Cap Scottish National; couldn’t improve on that last season; hard to see where the improvement is going to come from this time.
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Can't see how Ardlethan makes up the 17 length's with Cloth Cap for a 1Lb pull in the 4 miler at Cheltenham....Cloth Cap only weakened after the last, Ardlethan weakened well before for 4m stamina became an issue!
 
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Maxbet said:
Can't see how Ardlethan makes up the 17 length's with Cloth Cap for a 1Lb pull in the 4 miler at Cheltenham....Cloth Cap only weakened after the last, Ardlethan weakened well before for 4m stamina became an issue!
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I'm predicating it on my belief that once Ardlethen ran close to Sam Spinner they knew that had a tool on their hands and geared everything afterwards towards this. They put Ch'tibello by for two seasons for the County. They have form.

If you look at his RPRs, the Kim Muir form is miles below his normal level. I'd write that off completely. FWIW, I don't believe CC ran his race either.
 
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My long short list is Vinndication, Secret Investor, Regal Encore, Two for Gold and Potterman. Of those only Potterman and Secret Investor seem to relish good ground. Thanks to Desert Orchid I did back them the other day before I’d looked at the race. So fingers crossed.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm predicting it on my belief that once Ardlethen ran close to Sam Spinner they knew that had a tool on their hands and geared everything afterwards towards this.
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I can see where you are coming from DO, but I don't believe his form stacks up. If it did, you would expect the 3rd and 4th in that race, who were both in receipt of 6Lb and were only beaten 8 length's and 16 to have put up a little more than 133 OR performances subsequently. Neither has come close to winning a race since.

Add to that the fact that the Skelton's do know the time of day, yet 33/1 is still readily available.
 
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moe said:
I wish they’d send La Bague au Rio to the paddocks. They say she had a bad season last year and has come back looking great but I don’t think she’s quite up to this level. But then I am of a wrap them up in cotton wool mentality.
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The run at Wetherby, Adam Wedge said ' she only remembered she could breathe' at the 3rd last, and hated the ground. I think she would have won at Perth if not making that howler at the last. Trainer is happy with the ground if stays as it is. I'm there in the morning so I'll have a word with her :)
 
G-G said:
The run at Wetherby, Adam Wedge said ' she only remembered she could breathe' at the 3rd last, and hated the ground. I think she would have won at Perth if not making that howler at the last. Trainer is happy with the ground if stays as it is. I'm there in the morning so I'll have a word with her :)
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Was travelling as well as anything in the Plate until unseating...Stamina the big question
 
Kildisart is the bet here

Ground is drying up, Good-GTS in places with no rain forecast

I'll be on another good ground horse Potterman e.w as well

Cant have Copperhead on good ground
 
Maxbet said:
I can see where you are coming from DO, but I don't believe his form stacks up. If it did, you would expect the 3rd and 4th in that race, who were both in receipt of 6Lb and were only beaten 8 length's and 16 to have put up a little more than 133 OR performances. Neither has come close to winning a race since.

Add to that the fact that the Skelton's do know the time of day, yet 33/1 is still readily available.
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I fully accept that reading, Maxbet.

There's a good chance I'm reading far too much into it myself and I did make a point of watching Ardlethen in his races after the Skelton comment that he was one to watch for so I've been trying to work out why he wasn't really living up to that reputation.

Skelton only entered two in this race. Having said just the other day that Spiritofthegames was "never going to stay" you have to wonder why he was entered. To divert attention away from Ardlethen? SOTG was only about 16/1 for this for long enough.

Why drop him back in trip at Carlisle against the likes of Imperial Aura? He was never going to win at the trip but he could give him a proper workout knowing he could run well without being dangerous.

How many other 3m handicappers are there in the yard who could have been entered? I honestly have no idea but they're now a big operation so would imagine they had more ammo than just one horse.

Sure, I'm back-reading to a degree to fit my gut instinct but sometimes it pays to have hindsight in foresight :lol:
 
I’ve been on Potterman for a while and happy with that position and although I’m hoping he’s there or thereabouts, as his past performances indicate, I have been looking for something to really stand out and as much as I like Kildistart and Secret Investor their marks look only fair at best. And the Munir horse needs to jump better than in the past over these fences at what is sure to be a decent pace.

Cloth Cap loves the likely ground, as you’d expect being by Beneficial, travels strongly and proves he can stay this trip and further. His jumping is average while unconcerning but will appreciate the surface in that regard.

Hemmings has won it before and what I find a bit strange is they’ve booked Tom Scu to ride.

Mclernan has obviously opted to stick by JP and can enjoy a heartier meal tomorrow night as a result but while Scu has made 10-0 this season, it’s been a while and he’s been riding nothing like that for a few days so is going to have to work hard to make it. Admittedly I’m not a big fan and I’d prefer his Dad, even Brother or Grandad on board for that matter but he’s not the hindrance he used to be.

So Cloth Cap & Potterman against the field for me.
 
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wilsonl said:
Cloth Cap loves the likely ground, as you’d expect being by Beneficial, travels strongly and proves he can stay this trip and further. His jumping is average while un-concerning but will appreciate the surface in that regard.

So Cloth Cap & Potterman against the field for me.
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Jumped really well at Cheltenham behind Frodon..
 
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