Leopardstown Feb 9

Very impressed with last instalment today, the way he jumped the last and accelerated away was impressive. He jumps like a Gold Cup contender, Bobs Worth and Sil Conti would have won today as well but just happy Ireland have a live chance at the big one.

General feeling is TTT doesn't jump we'll enough for supreme so wouldn't be backing him. Carlingford Lough would at least have finished second.
 
TTT will surely appreciate a better run race and that might help his jumping.


I was at Leopardstown when last Instalment won the Topaz from FL on decent ground so underfoot conditions should be no bother whatever they are. Missed the 14s at Ladbrokes because they wouldn't accept my log-in before the price changed but 10/1 is fair NRNB.
 
I think that Last Instalment will go with BobsWorth all the way to the line. The form with Lyreen Legend has convinced me of it.
 
Impressive as LI was yesterday I doubt he'll be able to cope with the faster pace that's likely in the GC and the very different demands of the course even if the ground is soft as seems fairly likely at this stage


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viking said:
Impressive as LI was yesterday I doubt he'll be able to cope with the faster pace that's likely in the GC and the very differ demands of the course even if the ground is soft as seems fairly likely at this stage


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Do you have a specific reason for this? I think will be a huge ask to beat BW or SC given how good they can be but he jumps brilliantly and quickly, seems to stay very well and his win yesterday was more to do with accelerating away from the opposition than outstaying them I thought.

I actually think a faster pace will suit him given how good he jumps. As to the demands of Cheltenham, I'm not sure you could say it's a plus or negative for him at this stage so it's hard to gauge. We know Cheltenham is a postive for Bobs Worth and it will take a very good horse to beat him. The ground is the worry for last Instalment, he won't run on ground without give but if it is soft then it will be a plus for him and negative for BW as he wants good ground.
 
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No specific reason BigTea just a feeling from previous GCs with horses coming back from serious injury. And the fact Irish Hennessy form doesn't often mean that much at the fez


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That's true Viking, Hennessy has been quite poor and last year SDC winning and coming second in Gold Cup is by far the best formline between the two in a while. I think First Loo and Tidal Bay are good ye]ard sticks however so would be hopeful of a big run from LI.

Ryanair possibility would be a bad choice, if SDC was running in GC I could maybe see it happen. Would only happen if O'Leary decides winning his race is better than winning GC.
 
A few thoughts about the racing.
1 Guitar Pete was more match hardy than opponents in a race run at a hectic pace by any standards on the going : 3m 50 sec and they walked home the last 100 yds.

2 The Tullow Tank looked to have run up light. He was after two tough races in a short spell in December. He still beat the third by as far as at Christmas and ran to the line.
Vantour a cracking strong, deep chested strong boned horse who should make some chaser. he has foot to burn; galloped jumped and quickened like a real good horse.

3 The 3 staying novice chasers are very evenly matched: a blanket should cover them next time out also.

4 Interesting the comments after the Hennessy. Davy Russell very happy with Lord Windermere saying he needed the race and should be spot on for Gold Cup: no doubt Dessie thinking the same with Lyreen Legend. If they can be compared with China Rock but with more stamina they should collect prize money and justify their place in the race.
Great to see Last Instalment run and jump as he did for P Fenton and Brian O Connell.
Tidal Bay showing his age with a dropped back and back bone more prominent. Stayed on well but LI had flown.

5 Great word for Welds horse before bumper and boy did he win at his ease !
Flat breds do not have great Festival Bumper record and neither has DKW.!
Golantilla entered to run later this week so take the ante post price as AJM rarely sweeter about any horse for any race publicly to my recollection.

6 Is there a better 7lb claimer riding over jumps than Ger Fox ?
Surely good for his claim in valuable handicaps over the coming months.

7 All in all a "Carlsberg" racing day .
 
Yes, nice write up edgt

The only point I would disagree with is #3. They are probably all top class novices, but thought Ballycasey's jumping was exceptional and expect him to improve again and turn out to be a star
 
Perpetual said:
Yes, nice write up edgt

The only point I would disagree with is #3. They are probably all top class novices, but thought Ballycasey's jumping was exceptional and expect him to improve again and turn out to be a star
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Have to agree with you on Ballycasey. Before Sunday I was a Huge Don Cossack fan... But Ballycasy really did make it look easy IMO. I've since seen a few people on here posting that The Don is but a talking horse... As much as it pains me to admit it I fear they could be right. Unless the step up to 3m improves him. I'm just not convinced he relishes the battle!
 
Would like to see Ballycasey over 3m, Morning Assembly jumps and travels great as well and beat Ballycasey over a 3m hurdle last year but got ground down by Carlingford Lough. I'm not having Don Cossack at all

I think the RSA can be quite a gruelling race and the winner is usually a horse who grinds it out and is a dour stayer more like Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere than a Grand Crus type. For that reason I think Carlingford lough will end up being best of the bunch.
 
For me Carlingford Lough definitely needs 3M. And although most of us on here seem to agree DC is crying out for 3m, Elliot Always said he was not a 3m horse this year. BC looks like he will have no problems with 3m at all.
I really was so impressed with him on Sunday.

CL has lost to Ballycasy over 2m5f (He wasn't getting there before the fall at last IMHO). And Also lost to Don Cossack over 2m4f.

Don Cossack lost to Morning Assembly over 2m6f, yet Carlingford Lough was able to outstay MA over 3 miles and win. If I were to rank the Irish Horses now in order of their chances for the RSA it would have to be:

1. Ballycasey
2. Carlingford Lough
3. Morning Assembly
4. Don Cossack

Smad place has to be a big threat! His 3 Mile hurdle form is top drawer. His jumping has looked solid so far I'd say. We know he stays and that he likes Cheltenham... Think he had OR of 161 over hurdles
 
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