Leopardstown Sat Feb 6th 2016

This of course is not the Irish Gold Cup this is the Hennessy.................does this mean we are going to see the end of the Newbury Hennessy?

Be a bit of a fuss kicked up if they changed the name to the Gold Cup.:D

No brainier..R2R should win easily but . if Gorby is as good as one Irishman told me (claims he's the new Istabraq) then he should win by a hurdle.

Not really a day for laying the favourites and some 4 fold 5 folds and 1 accie might be the best way to go.
 
RTR has comfortably the best form here, and should win without too much fuss.

Would anyone consider it a knock to last season's Gold Cup, if he were to get turned-over? His fall notwithstanding, Djakadam has generally upheld the form, but Holywell is only beaten 10L in fourth, and if RTR gets turned over today, then it's maybe time to look at the race again.

I'm only being half-serious, as I genuinely do think it is fairly strong (as strong as the ratings would suggest, at any rate).........but I might have a deeper look, if RTR is beaten with no apparent excuses.

Outlander to take the Flogas and move to the head of the JLT market. Pont Alexandre to win the 4-miler under Townend.
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
Would anyone consider it a knock to last season's Gold Cup,
Click to expand...

no..only someone that can't get that old chestnut out of their head would.

Post devaluation of races where horses have very good established form and produce solid figures is one of the biggest nonsenses in racing.

Lets just take Holywell as a measure..has since been beaten 33 lengths by CC..so using this franking fallacy..that makes CC 23 lengths better than Coneygree..so that would give CC a new figure of 195. Other day Holywell would have lost by 100+ lengths had he completed..beaten by a 133 horse..giving that hoss 26 lbs...so that makes the winner about a 210 horse. Does that seem to confirm that post franking is a little bit of a strange belief.

a race is on the day..what happens afterwards is no reflection on that original race when many other factors come in to play afterwards

I doubt you could train this methodology out of punters though..its too engrained..but is highly flawed in the extreme...as the above example shows
 
there are millions of examples probably..might as well pick a top one

Istabraq's first CH beat Theatreword 12 lengths..next time out Theatreworld was beaten 40 lengths by bellator..making bellator 28 lengths "better" than Istabraq using franking
 
Agree that a literal lbs-for-lengths interpretation is far too simplistic, but disagree that subsequent form can be ignored. For me, it is perfectly logical to take another look, if the form of a race is consistently let down.

Clearly, there are instances where it matters less (e.g. a race where the winner simply outclasses the opposition), but in many cases, it's legit to have another look. You may decide that the form is still solid anyway, but there is absolutely no harm in revisiting a race, to convince yourself whether or not your initial view is still accurate.
 
why would you look afterwards though if any info gleaned afterwards has little relevance to the original race ,,,many things can affect horses at all times..all you are doing is grossly misleading yourself as to the real worth of a race by subsequent runs..its just muddying waters.

I'll ask a question though if you think it has worth..why does no other sport ever mention it? Why isn't the form of wimbledon finals questioned based on post games by the loser of the final. Why is it never once mentioned except in horse racing?
 
Frankel said:
Always a chance a race like last years race could finish some.
Click to expand...

this to a lesser degree happens even when a horse puts in a really big effort in an ordinary race...the race it wins is really a good race..hoss comes out next time and bombs out..just becasue it needed time to get over..a really good run. The franker will look at the two runs and deem teh first race to be no good after all..when in fact that decision is the exact opposite of reality. This happens dozens of times with big figure horses..big run..lesser effort..then big run again.

why would you rely on a method that tells you exactly the opposite of what you want to know?

Its an interesting subject i feel..and one of the great myths in racing..that really does need putting to bed
 
Last edited:
there we go..i've started a thread for discussion on it..it will be something to talk about for a bit ..we can have a break from deciding if W Mullins is going to have 200 winners at the festiival or not
 
People will look at races/form differently which is fair enough, whatever works for them.
For me, take last years Gold Cup for instance. The race has already been run and the performance produced and in the book.
 
big run..then blow out

it happens a lot..disappointing though..Lets Dance also under par from what was expected..that last race may have left a mark.
 
A good rule is not to even look at the Triumph market until the week before the race.
 
Last edited:
I wouldn't devalue it as such, but it's important to peg it the following season against the development of the previous seasons novices. Some of last years may not run up to form but some always will, so getting a handle on it isn't usually too difficult given all the trials.

Last seasons juveniles seem to be a case in point with none of them looking like they'd trouble last seasons champion hurdlers. Of course Peace and Co could change that today. Although it's just as likely he'll prove what most already believe.

in the case of the Gold Cup it's already been much discussed, and right now it's proving very difficult to make the comparison. For what it's worth you could still say it would be odds against one of last years runners winning the race, but you still couldn't discount Djakadam or Road To Riches.
 
JamesRB said:
wouldn't write him off for the triumph just yet. will need decent ground though for sure.
Click to expand...
Agreed. It'll put some juice in his price, and it's hard to ignore his previous race, which is still the best performance by this years juveniles.

Similarly though it's hard not to be impressed by Footpad who'd achieved the highest rating of the Irish juveniles so far this season.

The mare ran well and she's a definite contender against Limini in the mares novices without a penalty. It'll be interesting to see how the market prices her up now.
 
Last edited:
I think ruby will use different tactics on Lets Dance at Cheltenham

he needs a fast pace, and he'll get it in march
 
EC1 said:
as much as i would like that to be true..how did he win so well FTO on Heavy ground would be the question
Click to expand...

Memory playing tricks EC, just checked again and it wasn't his blog, it was in one of today's papersl and he didn't say wouldnt act on soft either:whistle:

"He heads the betting for the Triumph Hurdle after winning on his debut at Christmas when he was very professional. I had not sat on him before that race but trainer Aidan O'Brien's team had done a brilliant job schooling him. He jumped and travelled well, picked up and kept going.He kept it very simple in what was a good maiden hurdle. IG only had three runs on the flat for AOB and got a good rating, but he is still inexperienced. That's a good thing because he is a horse who could progress as he has not had a hard time on the flat.

"He coped with the soft ground, but feels like he has the pace for better conditions. In no way does he need it soft"
 
coped with it once..maybe didn't like it twice..could explain it..if that is the case then hopefully no excuses at Cheltenham..unless thats a bog too:)
 
Back
Top