Leopardstown

Dylan Thomas

Dylan Thomas

At the Start
Joined
Aug 13, 2009
Messages
276
I've been looking at the card not for long though but these would be my selections for the day.I'll welcome a challenge

1.05
Shanrod
1.35
Prairie Call
2.10
Dunguib if he runs, Saludos otherwise
2.40
Citizen Vic
3.10
Carnbridge
3.45
In Compliance
4.20
Agus a Vic
4.50
Big Shu
 
Dunguib will run and should win but I wish I had backed the Oliver McKiernan horse at the start of the week but 12/1 for Whodoyouthink is still pretty tempting. Fionngas will appreciate the step up in trip but he looks better on a right handed track while Some Present has a bit to prove now after Christmas.

In Compliance will not get home over three miles in soft ground (yet again) and its between the market leaders with Money Trix and Joncol probably being the safest (and boring) options as Mullins and Walsh both seem pretty convinced Cooldine will need this.

Roberto Goldback will be hard to beat over this sort of trip and ground as I think Weapons Amnesty is best suited to 3 miles on a decent surface. Zaarito really needs a clear round to show us what he can do while Cousin Vinny should relish this step up in trip and a more reserved ride. Expect him to be the main threat to the favourite.

Pittoni should be pretty hard to beat in the opener but expect a much better showing from Big Game Hunter. Should be an enjoyable card.
 
1:05: Shanrod(sorry if proves kiss of death DT)
1:35: Cool Quest
2:10: Mr Cracker (going for value e/w bet but may change mind later)
2:40: Citizen Vic (like him)
3:10: Carnbridge (sorry again)
3:45: Notre Pere (in my TTF and showing solidarity)
4:20: Dusty Doolan (great name)
4:50: Major Slew (why not)

Bit of a motley crew and some with very little chance. But some with a chance.
 
Am I missing something?

Has Cooldine lost a leg or something?

I had a look at the form - not having seen the market at all leading up to the race - to see if there were any angles to be exploited. I was totally stunned to see Cooldine sitting not only at odds-against but at 3/1!

This horse is as far ahead of this field as Kauto Star and Denman are of the Brits. Cooldine should be odds-on in my book. I had resigned myself to taking something something like 7/4 (my paper forecast price) if any bookie was daft enough to offer it but 3/1 is ridiculously generous.

The horse might not win. It might not be fit. It might not be well. It might fall. It might just run badly. But it shouldn't be 3/1 against a bunch of second-raters.

I've gone in quite heavily.
 
Whilst I will not go in heavy I have already backed Cooldine on the basis that he is, on top of his game, streets ahead of the others in this field. Whilst his form this season is a concern imo if he is anywhere near fit he wins. Not an odds-on chance but 3/1 is an attractive price for perhaps an even money (fit or not fit) wager.

Yesterday I greatly reduced my intended bet on Kalahari King, being put off by the trainers comments. Today I'm sticking to my guns.
 
Having preached all week to myself that Notre Pere is simply NOT the same horse as we seen last year i've given him one last chance. Money coming for him is interesting. Couldn't ask for more ideal conditions today, hopefully there's explanations for his poor runs this season and he is back to himself. IF he is, he wins this cosy. Big 'if' though.
 
Notre Pere is the Pricewise horse.

Cooldine wins if he is near his best but the vibes suggest he is not....Mullins is pretty down about his chances in the paper again today.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Am I missing something?

Has Cooldine lost a leg or something?

I had a look at the form - not having seen the market at all leading up to the race - to see if there were any angles to be exploited. I was totally stunned to see Cooldine sitting not only at odds-against but at 3/1!

This horse is as far ahead of this field as Kauto Star and Denman are of the Brits. Cooldine should be odds-on in my book. I had resigned myself to taking something something like 7/4 (my paper forecast price) if any bookie was daft enough to offer it but 3/1 is ridiculously generous.

The horse might not win. It might not be fit. It might not be well. It might fall. It might just run badly. But it shouldn't be 3/1 against a bunch of second-raters.

I've gone in quite heavily.
Click to expand...

Whats your figure rating for Cooldine last season?
 
RTE just did a good piece on the Hennessy with some past winners...some great memories there. Would be good to see one of the young horses win it today and try and go on and emulate the likes of Florida Pearl, Jodami and Beef Or Salmon in coming back year after year for further success.
 
The thing is he just does not appear to be a bridle horse....you get the impression Dunguib is bursting to be let off the bridle!
 
Grasshopper said:
Did you come tro the same conclusions before the Lexus, DO?
Click to expand...

Good question, but I didn't 'do' the Lexus. No doubt Cooldine would have been clear top but What A Friend and Money Trix came into that race as the big improvers. Neither found any further improvement despite finishing first and second so they've plateaued out. Looking back, I'd have rated Cooldine value that day too at 100/30. Better to be lucky (by not backing anything) than good, as my old man used to say.
 
sunybay said:
Whats your figure rating for Cooldine last season?
Click to expand...

For the RSA, I went high with Cooldine on 170+.

I'm also mindful of the improvement chasers can make in thier second season, so I'd expect Cooldine to end up a 175+ horse. He wouldn't need to be anywhere near that to beat today's field.
 
I was actually a little worried for Dunguib during the race as thought he was almost settling too well as he usually takes a pull. Looks like he is maturing very nicely indeed.
 
A monster of a horse, I would love to see him line up in the Champion, even if a colleague has 5/1 for the Supreme....
 
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