Lockinge

[Harbinger]

using OHR's for a form rating

Excelebration rated 126..beaten 5 lengths @ 2.2lb per length = 137
Dubawi Gold rated 117..beaten 9 lengths @ 2.2lb = 137
Bullet Train rated 106..beaten 12 lengths @ 2.2lb = 132

i actually think Bullet Train is a bit better than his 106 as he never gets chance to show it nowadays..he was rated 109 which is fairer imo..which would make Frankel a 135

OHR wise Frankel has run a 137+..as he never got touched with the whip and wasn't out of 2nd gear really

The official handicapper tends to use closer to 2 lbs per length over a mile. I think he will here, and he'll pin Bullet Train on his previous best 109, giving him a choice of 136/136/135/133 through the first four. He'll say something on his blog about him not quite needing to run to his QEII form.

 

[Cruella]

By a mile you mean one length. The Ballydoyle horse seemed to get better with every run last year (the Moulin apart on very soft ground) and it's fair to say given how he trains racehorses that AOB will have this horse at his peak in high summer.

?? I read Fist's post as "at a mile" not "by a mile". As in, Excelebration is Frankel's main rival over mile-distance races, not Frankel beat Excelebration a mile further than previously.

 

[SteveM]

I said at the time if the form could be taken literally then yes. Hawk Wing gave Where Or When (OR 123) a 25lbs beating. Third was Olden Times (OR 116) who got a 43lbs gubbing. EVen allowing for the soft ground exaggeratng the winning margins it was an unbelievable performance. However, on time ratings he was only 40-odd lbs ahead of the Cl4 maiden winner Lindop.

Then HW only had one more outing, in which he ran poorly and was retired. So we never got to see him back up that Newbury performance the way Brigadier Gerared did time after time and Frankel is doing.

Thanks. Frankel has the highest turf RPR since they began and joint top overall. A three pound improvement would also see him as Timeform's best ever (currently rated 143).

How does the Lockinge assessment (which must be close to his QE II performance) of Frankel compare to your assessment of Hawk Wing. Have you quantified it?

 

[SteveM]

Maybe it's just me, but I fail to see why everyone's eulogising this particular performance? Yes it was impressive, and yes Excelebration ran well too, but neither achieved a great deal more than they had previously.
Don't forget Dubawi Gold was only ever a makeweight, and was available at 50/1 this morning until his better fancied stablemate was taken out. Little difference in his relative finishing position (apropos the 2 principals) to a couple of occasions last year also, and Bullet Train was exactly as far behind Frankel as he had been at the end of last season
The race time wasn't all that, either; a relative 0.1 sec. slower than that achieved by the 100 rated Palace Moon earlier on the card, so by all means praise Frankel, but do let's try and keep a sense of perspective.

Not a bad limbering up exercise having said that. This must be close to his QE II rating, which at this stage is all we would want to see. This sort of run is enough to put him in an all-time top handful. Heaven help them when he really gets going!

 

[SteveM]

i didn't really understand the running of Windsor Palace tbh..disputed 3rd..why?

I'd agree with Gareth and Reet Hard's explanations here. He was in as insurance if BT didn't make a suitable pace.

 

[Desert Orchid]

How does the Lockinge assessment (which must be close to his QE II performance) of Frankel compare to your assessment of Hawk Wing. Have you quantified it?

Provisionally, yes. I thought I'd mentioned that earlier. On lines with Excelebration and Dubawi Gold running to my best previous marks for them of 125 and 117 respectively, Frankel has run to 137 or 138 (rounded up in both cases) with the promise of more to come. As EC1 says, however, once again it isn't backed up by a fast time rating (unlike Brigadier Gerard who smashed records right left and centre and might still hold the mile record at Sandown). My highest rating for Frankel last season was 134+ hence my assertion that this was his best ever performance (again, with the promise of more to come).

I reckoned if he was going to be vulnerable it would have been yesterday but he's clearly going to be miles clear on all figures this season.

At one point yesterday morning I thought I'd come to my senses and thought about allocating 25pts from one account (this from someone who usually bets 1pt win singles) at 2/5 (which was available after the withdrawal of Strong Suit) for the sake of a 10pt profit, the equivalent of a 10/1 winner at 1pt win. I'm ashamed to say I chickened out. Events proved it would have been buying money. But of course, if I had gone ahead with the bet, Frankel's injury would have recurred....

 

[Tanlic]

By a mile you mean one length. The Ballydoyle horse seemed to get better with every run last year (the Moulin apart on very soft ground) and it's fair to say given how he trains racehorses that AOB will have this horse at his peak in high summer.

Have to disagree there. He gave the horse a run this year to get him spot on to try and catch Frankel out before he could get properly race fit.

It's funny how everone and their uncle was saying that before the race change their minds when Timeform stick their noses in.

He was a virtual unknown whe he took Frankel on without a run last season and rated 89 but people are now saying what? He wasn't as fit this year or is it he's not a better horse now than he was then?

The fact is Frankel beat this vastly improved horse who is now ith the best trainer in the world IMPO further than he had previously and easier.

In my book that does not deserve a reduction in rating but an increase.

Bullet Trains finishing place has got absilutely nothing to do with anything. He was where he was and if Frankel had gone sooner he'd most likley have finished 15 lengths behind him.

Queally rode the race as it came and that is why Bullet Train finsihed closer than he would in another race........absolute joke anyone bringing him into calculation the things a boat n comparison to Frankel who'd beat him by a furlong in a 2 horse race.

 

[Desert Orchid]

what we really need is a true front running Group 1 horse..or as you say..someone else's pacemaker leading BT

I'm not sure we do. Brigadier Gerard's connections used good sprinters to set up the pace and he broke several records.

Shame the 30-40yo racing enthusiasts never got to see BG, Mill Reef, Nijinsky or Sea Bird. And I'm too young to have seen Tudor Minstrel. Then they'd maybe temper their enthusiasm for Sea The Stars, Frankel, etc.

When one comes out and beats the ratings for the Brigadier I'll be first to hail them, as I did with Hawk Wing (which may or may not have been a mistake - we'll never know and you can't go by stud records as BG was not a great success as a stallion).

 

[Tanlic]

Oh please! Sea the Stars..what on earth is he doing in that line up?

Frankel is in a different league to him as were the others you mention.

They all had one thing Sea The Stars drastically lacked. The ability to leave good horses standing like trees.

Frankel may not have the grace of Sea Bird II... probably no other horse in history could move with the ease he did but Frankel has awesome power in that frame that even the best we have ever seen would find it hard to cope with.

A fine list of names bar Sea The Stars..... Greats every one and if ever a horse deserved to be among them it's Frankel

 

[Gamla Stan]

Frankel may be better than Sea The Stars on ratings etc. but I know which horse I'd rather see race in the flesh and it's Sea The Stars.

He raced every month from one mile to 1m4f that year and comprehensively beat everything infront of him and nobody shirked the challenge (bar in the International) and he beat a variation of horses on each start. I couldn't care less how he won his races, I much prefer gritty grinders to flashy turn of foot types anyway!

I think Frankel is brilliant and I don't think I'll ever witness anything like his 2000 Guineas but it's all becoming a bit "Big Bucks" beating the same old opponents every time and I am starting to get a bit bored, they need to up him to 1m2f and race him more regularly this Summer.

Agree on the Excelebration points, a champion miler in his own right without Frankel and he'd be talked of in the great milers of this century if it wasn't for Frankel.

 

[SlimChance]

I think Frankel is brilliant and I don't think I'll ever witness anything like his 2000 Guineas but it's all becoming a bit "Big Bucks" beating the same old opponents every time and I am starting to get a bit bored, they need to up him to 1m2f and race him more regularly this Summer.

I could not agree any more. People on Twitter complaining about the BBC website not having Frankel further up their sports headline list was a head in hands moment. Let him do something he has not done already done before we roll out the bandwagon. Yesterday proved he still has a leg in either corner and nothing else.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Oh please! Sea the Stars..what on earth is he doing in that line up?

Frankel is in a different league to him as were the others you mention.

They all had one thing Sea The Stars drastically lacked. The ability to leave good horses standing like trees.

Frankel may not have the grace of Sea Bird II... probably no other horse in history could move with the ease he did but Frankel has awesome power in that frame that even the best we have ever seen would find it hard to cope with.

A fine list of names bar Sea The Stars..... Greats every one and if ever a horse deserved to be among them it's Frankel

I hope Frankel goes on to join them (on my figures but I wasn't rating in the days of Brigadier Gerard) and I think he will but ratings are all about beating what's up against them. The true greats tore genuine topnotchers apart. On my figures Excelebration just makes G1-winning class (being generous as I only have him on 125 and that status is reserved for 126) but Dubawi Gold could only ever win a poor G1 race.

The other obvious difference is that BG was usually ridden out to the line (without recourse to the whip). I'd argue that Frankel got a similar ride yesterday but could 'only' put 5 lengths between himself and an 'ordinary' G1 horse. The Brigadier was doing it to Guineas winners.

My point about STS is that he was hailed as the greatest ever. He was miles off it. Now Frankel is. He isn't miles off it.

 

[Euronymous]

I think Excelebration is more than just an ordinary Group 1 winner. He beat Immortal Verse hollow in the QE11 and she was a high class filly.

 

[EC1]

remarkably consistent horses endear themselves to people even if they don't produce the highest figures..just through being consistent

to get remarkable consistency..top ever figures and to be able to show it under different conditions is what sets racing legends apart from just very good horses

STS was a very good horse..had everything but wasn't hitting the max levels that legends hit

The Brigadier had everything that sets the standard for legendary status

Frankel falls short of STS because he has only done it at one distance..but beats STS by producing higher ratings

swings and roundabouts...Frankel needs to step up to 10..where he might even be better..if he does step up and show the highest figures at that distance then he is at legendary status imo

you can't do more than that..we can't expect a horse to win from 6f to 12f and show the best figures at every distance..its not possible

but its important that Frankel makes the move to 10f..to truly establlish himself as a true all time great

 

[EC1]

I think Excelebration is more than just an ordinary Group 1 winner. He beat Immortal Verse hollow in the QE11 and she was a high class filly.

I agree..his OHR is 126..which is very good seeing as how OHR's are usually very conservative..i think his OHR could be more near 130 tbh

he is also very consistent

 

[sunybay]

Referent to Brigadier, I am to young to rate that horse


About Excelebration
I think he is top class, not only a gr1 winner
Greenham 112+
german Guineas 122p
st James 117+
Hungerford 133+
Moulin 125+
QEII 132
Gladness 122++
Lockinge 128

without Frankel would have won all the races



About Frankel
he has not been able to win at longer distance , but has not been tried
but is a gr1 winner at 2 and STS was not.

The form is not only about the gr1 winners he has beaten
and they are many, is also beaten horses coming to win group races and other posting very high figures in handicaps,



The guineas is not only the rating, is the style

and St JAmes Palace seeing in perspetive is also impressive, given the ride he was given and being able to win after the Guineas effort, my experience is that after such an explosive outing most of the horses bounce in the next or are injured, Overdoes, Harbinger, Daylami, Royal Anthem, Hawk Wing......etc


This horse is a MACHINE.

 

[Kauto]

I don't understand the reasoning for them to keep him in training just to beat the same horses over and over.

Surely now is the time to step him up to 10f and see what happens I suspect we will see something even better although again I'm not sure what he has to beat apart from Cirrus.

If this is successful then why not have a crack at the Arc. If they want the horse to be remembered as the greatest surely he has to something truly great like Sea the Stars did.

Personally for me although the Timeform ratings suggest who produced the greatest performance it doesn't necessarily mean that horse is the best of all time there has to be more.

Surely Timeform would be better putting the ratings into distance categories?

 

[Euronymous]

I don't understand the reasoning for them to keep him in training just to beat the same horses over and over.

At this time of year there are no Group 1 events over 10f and obviously the older horses cannot take on 3yo's until after Royal Ascot. I think patience is needed here.

 

[Kauto]

At this time of year there are no Group 1 events over 10f and obviously the older horses cannot take on 3yo's until after Royal Ascot. I think patience is needed here.

Yeah agree but surely at Ascot is the time to step him up.

 

[Zenyatta]

I think running him at 8f at Ascot gives him more options for later in the season.

P.S. The fact that I have tickets for Tuesday has nothing to do with it.

 

[trackside528]

If this is successful then why not have a crack at the Arc. If they want the horse to be remembered as the greatest surely he has to something truly great like Sea the Stars did.

They seem pretty keen on heading to Ascot for the Champion Stakes, which would only be two weeks after the Arc. Suppose a lot depends on what pitches up at Ascot as to whether he will have the opportunity to prove himself in the same class as the likes of Brigadier Gerard.

The reality is that whether he proves himself a 'true great' is largely a function of whether other horses want to take him on; without meeting Cirrus des Aigles and/or (possibly) Camelot or an ultra-impressive Classic horse he would seemingly have to beat the likes of Excelebration et al. absolutely hollow (and be ridden to do so) to match the exploits of a Brigadier Gerard or Sea Bird II.

If he were mine I wouldn't be telling Queally to push him to the max to win by a street if he didn't have to. Then again if he were mine he would be gelded immediately after the Champion, schooling over hurdles before the week was out and I would be plotting a course to a famous Champion double at Cheltenham in March.

He would probably start off in the Royal Bond...

 

[reet hard]

I'd agree with Gareth and Reet Hard's explanations here. He was in as insurance if BT didn't make a suitable pace.

The other option being that he was being tested for pace against Frankel (hence the first-time visor), with a view to him doing the proper job in the Queen Anne, over the c/d where Frankel proved most vulnerable last year
Expect whoever does the job to be leading a different horse to Excelebration, though.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Referent to Brigadier, I am to young to rate that horse

So am I, I suppose, but I watched all his (televised) races.

We know all about his Guineas win from Mill Reef and My Swallow, both already deemed superstars and BG was no more than a bit-part supporting act in the clash of the English-French giants. He left them for dead, winning the Guineas by an easy 3 lengths.

He then struggled to win the SJP in ground that Timeform described as "barely raceable".

On 'normal' soft ground (he was thought best on good or better, remember) in the Sussex Stakes he destroyed a top class field.

According to Timeform, he beat "the best 4yo miler in Europe" Faraway Son (notionally 126, say? more?) by five lengths (over 11lbs). He beat Joshua, who had won the Challenge Stakes by five lengths, by 7.5 lengths. He beat the Jersey Stakes (notionally about 117 if the modern race is anything to go by) winner Ashleigh by more than ten lengths (23lbs+). The other runner was the Irish 2000 Guineas winner Kings Company (120?), beaten over 16 lengths.

In the Goodwood Mile, "Gold Rod, a contemprary of Faraway Son and almost his equal, had to suffer even greater indignity at the hands of Brigadier Gerard", ultimately beaten ten lengths.

BG then won the QE II at Ascot, also by a wide margin.

In discussing his prospects of staying beyond a mile, they opined that he had even led throughout in three top class mile races and at the end still "appeared twice as strong as an ox".

Remember: back in the day, Timeform weren't given to hyperbole.

BG's best (on relative ratings) performances in his 4yo season:

Westbury Stks [now the Brigadier Gerard Stakes]: gave Ballyhot (Timeform 121) and Pembroke Castle (120), 14lbs and 10lbs respectively, beating them ½ length & 2 lengths.*

Prince Of Wales: “in the space of two furlongs, Brigadier Gerard put five lengths between himself and Steel Pulse” (125 – won the Irish Derby eleven days later). Pembroke Castle was beaten 6½ lengths in receipt of 4lbs; Prominent (won the John Smith’s Magnet Cup next time under top weight) was beaten over 12 lengths in fourth.**

QEII: gave Sparkler (129) 7lb and beat him 6 lengths after missing the break and losing three or four lengths, Redundant (120) was 5 lengths behind Sparkler at the line. “The winner’s time was a full second inside the track record that had stood for fifteen years.”***

* puts him on about 135 (seasonal debut)
** puts him on at least 137
*** puts him somewhere between 145 & 150

When Frankel comes out and gives a 129 horse 7lbs and a 6 length beating, he can be placed alongside Brigadier Gerard in the pantheon of greats.

 

[Euronymous]

He's there already, as is Sea the Stars. He was breathtaking in the Eclipse where he beat a future King George winner by nearly six lengths.

 

[Guv1612]

Great debate... to me though I stand by my thinking..surely to step up to 10f now.. The Queen Anne will just be another procession and tells us nothing new- the best miler we have or likely to see.. Yesterday would have taken next to nothing out of him , loads in the tank.. the step up to 10f should be POW , and if it don't work plenty of time to get him back ready for the Sussex...