Longchamp this Weekend

Paco Boy wins the Foret in a time of ~80s.

Here's the times for all G1s run over the 7f course at Longchamp in the RP database. I've left in the 2yo races (Lagadere and Salamandre) for some extra context - they're denoted with a *.

78.4 Good To Firm
78.6 Good*
78.7 Good To Firm
79.3 Good*
79.4 Good
Edit: today's race at 79.8 fits in here
80.1 Good*
80.6 Good To Soft*
80.8 Soft
80.8 Good*
80.9 Good
80.9 Good*
80.9 Good To Firm*
81.0 Good
81.2 Good
81.4 Very Soft
81.5 Good To Soft*
81.6 Good*
82.2 Soft
82.2 Good To Soft*
82.3 Soft
82.3 Soft
82.5 Soft
82.6 Very Soft
82.8 Soft
82.8 Soft
82.9 Very Soft
82.9 Holding*
82.9 Very Soft*
82.9 Very Soft*
83.1 Soft*
83.3 Good*
84.0 Good To Firm*
84.0 Soft
84.0 Soft*
84.5 Holding*
84.8 Soft
85.0 Good To Firm*
86.9 Soft
87.0 Very Soft*
87.1 Heavy
 
Galileo said:
Race kinda of confirms that Zarkava (for all the style) beat very little in her Arc trial.
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I think Zarkava is false favourite given she has beaten only fillies - the rac eis going to be exceptionally tough with the Ballydoyle horses, Youmzain and other hardened campaigners at top level. I will be amazed if she can win it - she would be truly exceptional, another Ouija Board

Thrilled for Paco Boy and the Hannons to carry off that G1- also that Natagora ran so well (though I haven't backed her since the Guineas). That's an exceptionally long season she's had and full credit to her for still being placed at that level in October

AOB said in an interview on atr today - which has been widely reported - that he feels the ground is just the soft side of Good and there seems little chance he will withdraw DOM
 
They're knocking the top off again. I don't see how Paco Boy's record suggests any going preferences.

If Zarkava wins an Arc she'll be better than Ouija Board!
 
Those runs also coincided with his hand-over-fist improvement. If this is similar ground to Longchamp on Moulin day, which the fast-ish times and visual evidence of the top being kicked off suggest it might well be, then his good third that day just reinforces the impression.
 
Murtagh said the ground is Good To Soft, will be perfect if it stays dry tonight but soft if they get alot of rain.
 
That scrambling win over Scorpion in the Irish Leger is about the only thing he's won once the schools have gone back...
 
Put this horse up as unlucky on trials weekend, Bannaby. Is Maurice Delcher-Sanchez the only Spanish trainer?

3 G1 wins for Spanish horses in Europe - all trained by him, Suances, Equiano and now Bannaby. Legend :)
 
Here's the last 20 Cadran times plus today's effort. Note that many of these will have been run on Arc day without the dolling.

243.3 Good
254.1 Good
256.4 Good
259.2 Good To Soft
259.8 Good
260.9 Good
Today's race at 262.2 goes here
263.1 Firm
263.8 Good
267.0 Good To Soft
267.5 Soft
269.8 Good To Soft
271.5 Soft
276.0 Good To Soft
276.5 Soft
277.5 Holding
278.2 Heavy
281.1 Soft
286.3 Holding
287.8 Soft
291.8 Heavy
 
For the sake of completeness, here's the Prix Daniel Wildenstein:

95.9 Good To Firm
96.4 Good
97.0 Good
97.5 Good
98.3 Good
98.6 Good To Soft
99.0 Good To Soft
99.0 Good To Soft
Today's race at 99.1 goes here
99.5 Very Soft
99.9 Good To Soft
100.8 Soft
100.9 Soft
101.2 Soft
102.1 Heavy
102.4 Holding
104.0 Soft
104.8 Very Soft
104.9 Heavy

And the Prix Dollar:

118.3 Good
119.2 Good
119.3 Good
119.4 Good
121.6 Good To Soft
122.4 Good To Firm
Today's race at ~123s goes here
124.0 Good To Soft
124.1 Good
124.2 Soft
124.4 Soft
124.6 Soft
125.4 Holding
125.9 Good To Soft
127.7 Soft
127.7 Soft
127.7 Heavy
127.8 Soft
130.5 Very Soft
131.6 Soft
139.0 Heavy
 
Lush Lashes has the look of a good thing in the L'Opera IMO. A mile and a quarter is probably her optimum trip IMO, and as long as the ground doesn't deteriorate significantly she shouldn't be inconvenienced by it (I don't buy the notion she needs fast ground at her best) and her form is head and shoulders above anything else.

I must admit I found it pretty hard to get a handle on Treat Gently's form, though she's held by Lush Lashes on a line through Dar Re Mi. You'resothrilling obviously rates a threat, given that she's likely to have come on since the Matron, though I'm not at all sure she wants an ease in the ground (which might just test her stamina as well). I have had a saver on Katiyra EW, with ground and trip looking ideal (Oxx team think she'll go well). That said, her form is nowhere near the level of that acheived by the Bolger filly and I've got stuck in at 5/2.
 
trackside528 said:
Lush Lashes has the look of a good thing in the L'Opera IMO. A mile and a quarter is probably her optimum trip IMO, and as long as the ground doesn't deteriorate significantly she shouldn't be inconvenienced by it (I don't buy the notion she needs fast ground at her best) and her form is head and shoulders above anything else.

I must admit I found it pretty hard to get a handle on Treat Gently's form, though she's held by Lush Lashes on a line through Dar Re Mi. You'resothrilling obviously rates a threat, given that she's likely to have come on since the Matron, though I'm not at all sure she wants an ease in the ground (which might just test her stamina as well). I have had a saver on Katiyra EW, with ground and trip looking ideal (Oxx team think she'll go well). That said, her form is nowhere near the level of that acheived by the Bolger filly and I've got stuck in at 5/2.
Click to expand...

I think the Katiyra will go very close in this. Think this might be one race too many for Lush Lashes on ground that will not be ideal. Think Murtagh might be on the wrong one as well.
 
Katiyra would be the main danger as well IMO. Has to step up but looks the type of progressive filly Oxx excells with. Well fancied as well.

Form of the Irish Oaks looks distinctly average now and I can't see Moonstone having the pace to win this to be honest.

I do have a nagging doubt that this might be one race too many for Lush Lashes, though I actually think that is factored into her price to an extent; on form alone, she is a stand-out price at 5/2 IMO. The ground doesn't concern me at all.
 
Granddaughter of Sadlers Wells (by Beat Hollow) wins the Marcel Boussac - ground favours stamina? Just started raining there
 
Agreed, and the type with plenty of improvement in her too - not a 2yr old sort on paper though she has done it well in her last couple
 
Yeah, her pedigree suggests she`ll be better as a three year old and maybe over further than a mile. Nevertheless I`ve asked for 11 on Betfair for the 1000.
 
Same goes for that Naquoos - what a superb animal! Great stuff for Oasis Dream too...
He's really scopey and I took a chance on him at 7s as he seemed very unexposed

I think Mastercraftsman has done enough for the year? - seemed to run flat in spit eof the poor start
 
Really impressed with Naquoos...a serious Guineas contender on that with the promise of much more than that.

Mastercraftsman had one race too many.
 
Great Minds LOL
Just showing the replay - he's SOOO athletic - he seems really hungry for the ground, the way his shoulders are giving it everything. Phew! I'm in love
 
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