Migration and Asylum

[Warbler]

It's been reported in the media all summer that thousands of people have been drowning in the Mediterranean but Cameron did nothing. As soon as a newspaper publishes a photograph of a dead body though, Cameron suddenly sees fit to respond - you couldn't make it up!

It's also worth remembering that Germany's population is stable and forecast to fall in the future. Ours isn't. It's rising, and forecast to surpass Germany's

 

[icebreaker]

It's been reported in the media all summer that thousands of people have been drowning in the Mediterranean but Cameron did nothing. As soon as a newspaper publishes a photograph of a dead body though, Cameron suddenly sees fit to respond - you couldn't make it up!

I guess it's like Joe Stalin said: "One death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic".
A photograph of a dead child can be quite emotive.

 

[Grasshopper]

If the word "Muslim" was replaced by the word "Jew" in a lot of recent posts, this place would be in meltdown.

The situation is extremely complex, and - like it or not - it exposes deep-rooted cultural/political positions, which will prove the constraint on European integration. That doesn't mean that the EU is doomed to the kind of calamitous failure suggested by Clivex, but it is another indicator (like the financial/Greek crisis before it), of exactly how far integration can practically be taken.

Insofar as the refugees are concerned, there are almost certainly a percentage of them who are economic migrants. But I believe that we can't continue to deny access based on the few, when the cost to the many is so great.

If every town in Europe of over 1000 population absorbed just one family, this issue would be over at a stroke. Is that a workable solution? I don't known, but the impact on each town would be practically nil; both in terms of cost and intgeration problems (because there woukd be no need to build ghettos to herd them all together).

Whatever happens, something needs to be done to help these people, and ostracising them - or suggesting they are otherwise undesirable because of their religion - is walking a very fine (and short-sighted) line, in my view. A dispersal programme could work, and the problem isn't going to go away in the absence of one.

 

[Warbler]

New team at the Sun this week, Tony Gallagher, and of course Rebekah Brooks back at Newscorp. I was told (though haven't checked it) that some of Katie Hopkins more posionous archive had been removed? Then again I've seen stuff that suggested it hadn't. What we do know is that the Sun seemed to launch and about face this week, and because Cameron so often makes policy up as he goes along, he's followed.

 

[icebreaker]

If every town in Europe of over 1000 population absorbed just one family, this issue would be over at a stroke.

Would it? Would that be the end of it?
An alternative scenario, equally possible, might be that hundreds of thousands more might well be subsequently encouraged to also come to Europe.
I don't believe that the current mass movement of migrants through Europe has reached its crescendo; I expect many many more will arrive in coming months.

 

[Grasshopper]

I'll concede there is a danger in that, Ice, but solve this immediate crisis, and we will be better prepared to deal with what comes next. Everyone knows that the current situation is unsustainable, and doing something has to be better than doing nothing.

 

[clivex]

If the word "Muslim" was replaced by the word "Jew" in a lot of recent posts, this place would be in meltdown.

The situation is extremely complex, and - like it or not - it exposes deep-rooted cultural/political positions, which will prove the constraint on European integration. That doesn't mean that the EU is doomed to the kind of calamitous failure suggested by Clivex, but it is another indicator (like the financial/Greek crisis before it), of exactly how far integration can practically be taken.

Insofar as the refugees are concerned, there are almost certainly a percentage of them who are economic migrants. But I believe that we can't continue to deny access based on the few, when the cost to the many is so great.

If every town in Europe of over 1000 population absorbed just one family, this issue would be over at a stroke. Is that a workable solution? I don't known, but the impact on each town would be practically nil; both in terms of cost and intgeration problems (because there woukd be no need to build ghettos to herd them all together).

Whatever happens, something needs to be done to help these people, and ostracising them - or suggesting they are otherwise undesirable because of their religion - is walking a very fine (and short-sighted) line, in my view. A dispersal programme could work, and the problem isn't going to go away in the absence of one.

That's crap

the record of muslim immigration is trouble. The numbers are far larger than it could be for Jews anyway. The record of jewish is anything but

Ans where are these villages of 1000 going to find the accommodation? Daftest idea I've heard yet . Why them and not Ethiopians then ? Or Eskimos

also if you allow this wispy washy let every town have a family then it doesn't take even much thinking to understand that that will simply encourage thousands more. Even a leftie could get taht

its right to ostracise because of religion because the religion is hostile to the states where they wish to earn a living. No other religion spouts off such contuniues bile towards the west. So they can forget it imo

 

[clivex]

I'll concede there is a danger in that, Ice, but solve this immediate crisis, and we will be better prepared to deal with what comes next. Everyone knows that the current situation is unsustainable, and doing something has to be better than doing nothing.

Concede? It is bleedin obvious isn't it

 

[Warbler]

its right to ostracise because of religion because the religion is hostile to the states where they wish to earn a living. No other religion spouts off such contuniues bile towards the west. So they can forget it imo

Are you suffering from something Clive?

• "Personally I wish we could take more without the consequences of encouraging further migrants. We certainly can do so despite what ukip and so on might say."
  ​

 

[Warbler]

And where are these villages of 1000 going to find the accommodation? Daftest idea I've heard yet .

Quite apart from anything, it would be political suicide. The Daily Mail would be all over you for handing out £500,000 Cotswolds cottages in Bourton on the Water whilst others drew the short straw and ended up in Grimsby.

You've seen what's happened in the last few days as soon as Merkel dropped the terms of the Dublin accord.

I don't know why Greece doesn't become official state people traffickers myself? If Merkel is prepared to take 800,000 or whatever, and these people are paying anything between £2000 and £5000 a time, perhaps the Greeks could charge them to come and live amongst them. That should help pay off their debt

 

[clivex]

Are you suffering from something Clive?

• "Personally I wish we could take more without the consequences of encouraging further migrants. We certainly can do so despite what ukip and so on might say."
  ​

i wish we could have immigration that works and woukd not create a Avalanche. But that won't hapoen. Impossible in these circunstances

but yes. Although Islam comes in many forms, on reflection I just don't think it sits comfortably in the west. Not in the increasing numbers that would be a result.

 

[Warbler]

Public opinion can be fickle and easily led, but I'd be inclined to remind folk that about 2 weeks ago it was only through the chance intervention of a couple of American's that something like 100 people weren't masssacred on a Thalys train. I wonder what the mood would be in the media today had this terrorist not been disarmed and been able to go through with his slaughter?

I've increasingly been overcome with a sense of doom regarding the inevitable clash between the west and islam, (third world war) and can't really think our prospects are enhanced by encouraging them to come and live and multiply amongst us. I'm sure there's something written into the Koran (or something attributable to the prophet that advocates doing just this isn't there?)

 

[clivex]

I'm not sure I would go that far but very good point about the train

in truth Syria does not have a tradition of extremism and those escaping are probably equally escaping the revolting elements of Islam as much as the horrors of Assad.

im very torn in this one must say. I also believe the social engineering of dispersment is a nonsense. You don't want Blackburn style ghettos but as is clear in cities like London, a support network amongst communities works and will probably relieve pressure on the state due to isolation and so on

but it has to be accepted that when Hungary and Slovakia says Christians yes and Muslims no.. .. That is far from just a right wing rant.

 

[clivex]

To be frank Im scrubbing a lot of what I've said. Bob geldofs piece and hat he says about Britain sticks . Top man

a few numbers that haven't really been thrown around. 25000 is 1% of current muslim population. Therefore. So what? Make it 50

we had a net migration of 350000 last year . The country didn't collapse . 50000 more so what?

and the sheer relief and gratitude of the refugees wil, surely translate into giving plenty back in time

i don't totally agree ice with the grief porn pic comment. As with that famous photo from Vietnam, a picture can change a helluva lot. A sense of enough is enough and the government is not reading this. The mail and sun screamed at them over this and whatever anyone thinks of those papers, they rarely get their readers wrong

 

[Warbler]

in truth Syria does not have a tradition of extremism and those escaping are probably equally escaping the revolting elements of Islam as much as the horrors of Assad.

Given that an Assad has been ruling Syria for about 50 years, that would leave you needing to explain why this has only become a flood since ISIL showed up?.

I think there's a danger (yet again) that the western government's are getting this all wrong in terms of enemy identification, and equally I wouldn't want to make the mistake of falling into their propaganda and badly concealed agendas.

Assad ain't your problem. ISIL are. Assad has no aspiration to kill us or export terrorism. ISIL do. It's a massive mistake to the wrap the two up together. Assad's regime isn't remotely close to committing the sorts of crimes that ISIL are doing. Indeed, for about 4 years now it's been the only thing standing between ISIL and a gateway into Lebanon, and heavy knows what there after

 

[Warbler]

The mail and sun screamed at them over this and whatever anyone thinks of those papers, they rarely get their readers wrong

Frankly Clive the Mail have been pedalling a really nasty line on asylum seekers and economic migrants now for about 15 years. The Daily Express hasn't been far behind. The Sun has been less rabid in it's demonisation, but they've also happily given Katie Hopkins oxygen. The Sun have had a recent change of management and their line could be changing, but let's not be under any illusion, the evil minded right wing tabloids have done more than any single institution in this country to plant the seed and generate hostility against economic migrants than any other single body

Making policy on the strength of an emotive photograph is extremely dangerous, especially when the people printing the photograph are doing so because it helps them sell their product. Also I'd be wary that so many of them have been running diametrically contradictory opinion editorials for years until they wanted a new angle. It's soup of day stuff really. Within a few years they'll be complaining about Syrians - you wait.

OK, I kind of expect someone like Cameron who has a track record of knee jerk, make it up as you go along decisions, to take the bait, and Samantha Cameron holds some charitable position with a Syrian childrens brief too

I can however see that a predominantly shi'ite population might be an ally in the coming war yet, so long as the aspiration to conqueror and enslave stays within the sunni communities and doesn't broaden out

 

[clivex]

Given that an Assad has been ruling Syria for about 50 years, that would leave you needing to explain why this has only become a flood since ISIL showed up?.

I think there's a danger (yet again) that the western government's are getting this all wrong in terms of enemy identification, and equally I wouldn't want to make the mistake of falling into their propaganda and badly concealed agendas.

Assad ain't your problem. ISIL are. Assad has no aspiration to kill us or export terrorism. ISIL do. It's a massive mistake to the wrap the two up together. Assad's regime isn't remotely close to committing the sorts of crimes that ISIL are doing. Indeed, for about 4 years now it's been the only thing standing between ISIL and a gateway into Lebanon, and heavy knows what there after

I'm not really interested in going down that route frankly but to say there is only a problem because of isil is nonsense

 

[clivex]

Why always go down the past? Ok I don't read those papers and maybe they have highlighted some abuses. We are where we are now. I am saying about their current stance. Couldn't care less about what's gone before. They can change tune I'd they like . So what

 

[icebreaker]

As with that famous photo from Vietnam, a picture can change a helluva lot. A sense of enough is enough and the government is not reading this. The mail and sun screamed at them over this and whatever anyone thinks of those papers, they rarely get their readers wrong

Exactly ! That is exactly what I mean.
A picture of a dead child is a powerfully emotive image. Unfortunately, when emotion is the predominant driver of a public debate, reason can often go out the window. Cameron and all the other European leaders are now hostage to a public spaced-out on grief loaded on them by the media with that photo. That public now demands acceptance of huge numbers of migrants/refugees, and politico's being what they are will be keen to go along with it. But it is an ill-thought through view and it will have consequences such accelerating the Islamification of Europe amongst other things.
I think that in a few years we will deeply regret what we have committed ourselves to this week. But then it will be too late, and the authors of this -- primarily Merkel -- will be cursed for their misjudgment at this time.

 

[Warbler]

I'm not really interested in going down that route frankly but to say there is only a problem because of isil is nonsense

Are you going to explain why we've only just seen this flood of refugees then since ISIL became a regional player?

I see it's all down to Assad isn't it, nothing to do with the nice reformers ISIL I suppose, and if only that evil Assad had stepped aside none of this would have happened (the silly Cameron line). Well I've got news for you Clive (and Cameron, as I'm sure he looks in now and then). Had you removed Assad at the start of the revolt, Syria would be completely under the control of ISIL by now, the theatre would have expanded to Jordan, the next line. There would also have to be very realistic probability that Lebanon would have fallen too, which brings ISIL onto Israel's borders, and still we seem obsessed with trying to remove the only credible fighting body of men who are struggling to hold the much bigger enemy

This idea that all we had to do was train and arm a moderate army of middle class doctors, lawyers, and university lecturers to replace Assad is palpable folly, and I can only laugh at those who still pedal this lie that some great opportunity was missed. They're deluding themselves. ISIL would have wiped them away within a week. Don't lose sight of the fact the west spent 10 years assembling, equipping, and training the most expensive army ever purchased in Iraq, and for what? For them to run away and hand their weapons over ISIL (but that's in the past so where better not talk about it in case we actually learn any lessons from it I suppose) much better to wildly speculate on the now and the future with no point of reference. :lol: What on earth possesses anyone to think we could have succeeded in training and equipping a Free Syrian army in about 3 months?

The same thing happened in Libya. Cameron of course extended that when he thought he'd bring a load of Libyans over for training in Cambridgeshire (nothing like a bit of good British military training to restore order is there!) - look what happened. These were hand picked remember, and those that didn't abscond and try and claim asylum, ended up raping the local population instead. In the end they were all sent back to Libya and the whole project embassringly swept under the carpet as a catastrophic and ill conceived failure

What i am curious to learn is why has there been a recent influx of Syrians in particular. Remember our media can be economical with the truth. Mass movements on this scale usually predicate a military and societal collapse. I've seen a few reports that ISIL have been gaining ground in Syria in the last 6 weeks, is this more extensive than is being reported? Are people starting to flee in greater numbers now because Syria is on the verge of falling to ISIL? Well be careful what you wish for Clive - removing Assad and replacing him with ISIL isn't a good idea imho

 

[Warbler]

Why always go down the past? Ok I don't read those papers and maybe they have highlighted some abuses. We are where we are now. I am saying about their current stance. Couldn't care less about what's gone before. They can change tune I'd they like . So what

The past is critical to informing the future Clive, that's why.

The papers are entitled to change their tune, but this is one of the biggest conversions since St Paul fell down on the road to Damascus (to pardon the obvious). Ask yourself why in a traditional flat news time of year, a group of papers that have been laying a trail of poison for well over a decade have suddenly gone with a shock image and come over all cuddley and humane? Last month Katie Hopkins was happily permitted to write stuff in the Sun advocating sending in gun boats to sink migrants in the Mediterranean and then drown the survivors! That was a month ago Clive.

They're playing the people Clive, and that's a really bad foundation to base major decisions on

 

[marbler]

Frankly Clive the Mail have been pedalling a really nasty line on asylum seekers and economic migrants now for about 15 years.

That tends to be becuase these papers smell and breathe the air of cities like London, where often homegrown and born-and-bred people feel like second class citizens. I've been there, done that, felt like that myself and got the T-Shirt.

The Mail is also a popular paper who the last time I checked was highest daily circulation paper in the country.

Having said that, they've always on occasion taken up campaigns on major stories which traditionally a paper like the Mirror or Sun would take up, like their excellent campaigns for justice for Stephen Lawrence and so on.

As for your points about Syria, well, I still beleive action on humantarian grounds to overthrow Assad was needed, but it didn't happen, so the nature of history was altered, altered for a perverse game of war chess in the Middle East.

 

[Frankel]

In the icebreaker camp on this. Bang on imo.

 

[Warbler]

The problem with this Alice in Wonderland position Marb, is pragmatism. Everyone can say sentimentally glib things like we want Assad to step down and be held to account. We want ISIL to disband and go back to the bazaars. We want nice liberal democracies promoting human rights across the region etc, but how?

It's not unlike this easy position that Cameron has adopted on Europe. The one that says I'm in favour of staying in but want reform. Well to be honest, you could sustain that position today, and at any time in the last 50 years. Furthermore, you'll be able to say the same for the next 50 years. It's just vanilla!

The question I'd ask yourself, (and Clive for that matter) is to imagine a situation where Assad flees next week. Now try and sketch out the most likely scenario as to what follows and who'll be running Syria when the inevitable panic sets in and the vacuum opens. What do you honestly think would happen him if you overthrew Assad? Who would you replace him with? How long do you think you're government could last?

You can come back and deal with Assad later, but by far and a way the bigger enemy and regional threat comes from ISIL. You might remember back in April that the Iraqi's promised us an offensive this summer to roll ISIL right back. Well what happened to that? Sure they recaptured some land, but they've also lost a lot too. I've got a feeling (reading the mood music) that ISIL are starting to get the upper hand in Syria too. If Damascus comes under pressure then todays trickle of refugees will be nothing compared to what's coming down the road

As regards the Daily Mail, the Stephen Lawrence thing is notable really for its singularity. I'm not so sure that Neville Lawrence doing building work on Paul Dacre's house didn't have an impact on their decision to run that story originally

In support of Clive's conversion to the cause of asylum seekers incidentally, I did see the other day that so far the UK has taken enough Syrian's to fill a standard London tube train. I should also admit to a having had a pang of guilt when Merkel came over all humane and compassionate the other day. There was more than just a bit of me thinking that this is what we should be doing, but then I'm not totally convinced that her motives are all that they seem

 

[clivex]

That tends to be becuase these papers smell and breathe the air of cities like London, where often homegrown and born-and-bred people feel like second class citizens. I've been there, done that, felt like that myself and got the T-Shirt.

The Mail is also a popular paper who the last time I checked was highest daily circulation paper in the country.

Having said that, they've always on occasion taken up campaigns on major stories which traditionally a paper like the Mirror or Sun would take up, like their excellent campaigns for justice for Stephen Lawrence and so on.

As for your points about Syria, well, I still beleive action on humantarian grounds to overthrow Assad was needed, but it didn't happen, so the nature of history was altered, altered for a perverse game of war chess in the Middle East.

of course they did. I don't read the mail but know about Stephen Lawrence.

How ow long before we here about the blackshirts drivel and bizarre fantasies that it's the same editorial team?

also it's total nonsense to state that if Assad had quickly been removed Isil would be running the whole country. You have absolutely no idea whether that is true or not and frankly I do not believe it one bit. They exploited a vacuum. If there had been another quickly appointed administration with forces backing then Syrias fall would have been no more likely than jordans now