Nassau Stakes 30 July

Fast ground at Goodwood is very different from soft at the Curragh - MFM much too short I reckon .
 
I wondered why Hughes was booked by Cecil - perhaps HRAC felt like he would give him a ride knowing what was going to happen yesterday !
 
Bar the Bull said:
The dreaded seven declared.

Misty for Me 2/1
Snow Fairy 3/1
Midday 10/3
Crystal Capella 7/1
Principal Role 20/1
Barefoot Lady 28/1
Field Day 50/1

There is not much rain forecast, which curbs my enthusiasm in CC a little bit.
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Banimpire has run off then, fps. Next time ...
 
Last time out and her run in the Irish Oaks are the only times Midday has really been badly beat she's been an established Group 1 performer. Softer conditions at the Curragh (or maybe just the latter) just don't suit her. I've taken 3/1.
 
MIDDAY 134
CRYSTAL CAPELLA 133
MISTY FOR ME (IRE) 132
SNOW FAIRY (IRE) 131
BAREFOOT LADY (IRE) 121
PRINCIPAL ROLE (USA) 118
FIELD DAY (IRE) 109

Thought these might open a can of worms. Adjusted ratings for the Nassau, Timeform style.
 
Not far out to what I would expect - maybe swap Misty for me with snow Fairy, but it's easy to see why Misty for Me has the higher rating after the last day (for all I personally wouldn't take it at face value).

Who do you fancy DJ?
 
Careful Bar - the RP haven't applied WFA for those adjusted ratings yet. Drives me mad that they publish them on the website like that.

The best unadjusted RPRs for each are:

124 Midday
123 Crystal Capella
121 Misty For Me
120 Snow Fairy
109 Barefoot Lady
109 Field Day
108 Principal Role
 
Incredidibly close between the top four... I don't know who to back, but like Ardross I do expect Midday to be much more convincing than last time.
 
Midday's most recent 134 (or unadjusted 126) comes from the Middleton. It's possibly a little flattering, given she was carrying a penalty and the race was steadily run. Prior to that you have to go back to the Yorkshire Oaks for that sort of figure.

Crystal Capella has always struck me as a Group 1 filly. She put up a Group 1 effort last time, but is 7/1? That will do for me no matter what concerns there are re; ground/trip.
 
With Midday and Snow Fairy reportedly shining at home and CC and Misty with such impressive recent form, the winner (whichever it is) will deserve it. I keep changing my mind... probably a good sign not to have a bet.
 
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I'd agree with you both that 7/1 looks the relative value. The other three look daunting though.

Perhaps they could supplement Sarafina to make it really interesting.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I don't think any of us will get poor backing CC with so many boxes ticked as she has tomorrow. I am going to have a tickle on her at 7s.
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Feck that, I am having a serious go at this - she should be near favourite after the last day. Maximum bet.
 
SteveM said:
I'd agree with you both that 7/1 looks the relative value. The other three look daunting though.
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Agree. It's one of those races I'm going to back a loser in, and still sit smug afterwards thinking how smart I am for backing the best value horse, why the mugs who backed the poor priced winner go and enjoy their winnings.
 
QUOTE: Feck that, I am having a serious go at this - she should be near favourite after the last day. Maximum bet.QUOTE:

...oh dear.
 
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