Nassau Stakes 30 July

Because I fear for you getting series in this. But look, just because I can't see the winner, perhaps you can.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Are you sure?
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Gareth's right the figures will be adjusted (or unadjusted, however you want to phrase it) tomorrow by 10lbs for Barefoot Lady and Misty, which will make the four principals on very similar ratings (both RPRs and TF, see also david's early post).
 
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Bar the Bull said:
Thanks Steve.

I am surprised MfM isn't clear of Midday on ratings.
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What was it? Something like a six length beating with Midday not getting her conditions. That wouldn't have been Midday's best performance... so I'd say they were quite close. The four of them ought to be close together at the death tomorrow. Which one is improving most I guess is the question.
 
...I'd agree. I wouldn't be betting against her. On the other hand I don't really want to bet against the others either.:confused:
 
Misty For Me is apparently a non-runner because of the ground. Bizarre when you consider she won on good last time, on soft in the Marcel Boussac and on good to firm in the Irish One Thousand Guineas.
 
davidjohnson said:
Misty For Me is apparently a non-runner because of the ground. Bizarre when you consider she won on good last time, on soft in the Marcel Boussac and on good to firm in the Irish One Thousand Guineas.
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The two times she’s been beaten badly have been Good/Firm (same as tomorrow), at Newmarket and the Curragh.
It was yielding to soft when she won last time though and she does seem to appreciate a bit of cut.

It hasn't helped much though. I'm still no nearer to seeing the winner.
 
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SteveM said:
Because I fear for you getting series in this. But look, just because I can't see the winner, perhaps you can.
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As David says, it's not about finding the winner but Crystal Capella is without doubt the value in this race. The front two, especially Midday are too short for me in this line up.

Had a decent bet on CC at 5s with Ladbrokes.
 
I think that Newmarket form is very iffy. There were big gaps between all the horses that day and the ones in behind CC were all much of a muchness.

Even with the Rule 4 hit if my IR lay of Midday at 11/10 is matched I'll have her at an average price of 5/2. A fair bet imo.
 
Interestingly the Newmarket tipster for the post, (Is it still tony elves?)
has napped Snow Fairy
 
I've spent an hour looking at this race and most of it has been spent trying to find the possible reasons that people are coming up with to oppose Midday.

With MfM gone, the only real threat should be from Snow Fairy who is held on last year's York form.

Crystal Capella's form is patchy at best and seems to be being overhyped. If she has been putting up G1 performances in G2s (if) - then that is all very well but the place to do them is in G1s.

Course form, distance form, last year Midday even beat Stacelita in this race, yet still plenty of 7/4 available with her biggest rival missing in action.

Back the favourite, but try and remember those who lost thinking they were backing value.
 
I reckon Snow Fairy's Hong Kong Cup win from last year is the best piece of form in the race but its so close and the way the Cecil stable is going its difficult to oppose Midday. 1/2 the pair on BF currently but still a no bet race for me xp
 
Midday strong in the market.Snow Fairy weak.

As discussed the RPRs have them very close:

Crystal Capella 131
Midday 131
Snow Fairy 128

Misty For Me NR 129


The ORs even closer:

Crystal Capella 120
Midday 119
Snow Fairy 120

Misty For Me NR 120
 
As a general point I like to be against horses who have had a very hard time the previous season until they have proved they are 100per cent over their exhertions.
Snow Fairy did a lot of travelling last year and she never really got competetive in the Eclipse-is she the same filly as she was last year?.
Powers are 8/11 Midday in a match bet against SF-that looks good to me.
 
Third Nassau for Midday. Great stuff! Great run also from Snow Fairy. I doubt Misty would have been quite good enough given today's conditions.
 
LUKE said:
As a general point I like to be against horses who have had a very hard time the previous season until they have proved they are 100per cent over their exhertions.
Snow Fairy did a lot of travelling last year and she never really got competetive in the Eclipse-is she the same filly as she was last year?.
Powers are 8/11 Midday in a match bet against SF-that looks good to me.
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You won your match Luke. Well done. They were the two though.
 
How was that a great run from Snow Fairy?

The best horse in the conditions, and most probably overall, won. The slow pace meant Crystal Capella had little chance when Fortune didn't kick on earlier, and Snow Fairy finishing close to Principal Role shows she was well below last year's form.
 
I'd agree with Hamm about Snow Fairy-I think Midday had a lot left to give.For me Snow Fairy is not as good as she was last season.
 
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