New Approach

Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Apr 21 2008, 12:05 PM
I would be surprised if Sheikh Mohammed is one of those people.
"We're going to take it step by step but Sheikh Mohammed, Princess Haya and (bloodstock advisor) John Ferguson have left the horse's programme to me," said Bolger



But it looks like Jim Bolger is in charge on this one and maybe he thinks the Curragh is better option
 
Yeah, but for the Irish Guineas over the Derby. No choice has to be made between the Derby and the Irish Derby, it's one of the most natural progressions in racing.

So why is he making this choice? Because he's never won it? Putting his own legacy ahead of that of the horse's?
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Apr 21 2008, 07:18 AM
No choice has to be made between the Derby and the Irish Derby, it's one of the most natural progressions in racing.


It used to be like that but only North Light has attempted the double in the last 5 years.

Bolger sometimes likes to do things that have not been accomplished in a while like running FB in three Guineas last year and talking up a Triple Crown bid with Teofilo.
 
If they have any reason to believe that he won't handle the course at Epsom then this makes sense I suppose - but how could they be certain of that? Are there any Epsom-like corners in Ireland they could have galloped him round?
 
Gareth

Only Jim knows why, but he's probably thinking where are my best options of winning G1's with this horse and two shots at 8f are probably the best options.

If successful in one or other he's got the G1 on his cv in bag, anything he gets after that just adds more to the horses cv and more money to his stud fee
 
Perhaps his temperment will not be suited to the day. They possibly hoped he would relax a little from 2 to 3 and that might not be the case. If he didnt relax the day of Epsom his chances would be blown.

Also his least impressive performance last year came in the Dewhurst. Connections reported that was due to the fact they were having to get him to relax in his races with the Derby in mind. Perhaps they felt his natural spark would have been diminished if they were training him to get 12 furlongs.
 
Just had a look a pedigree and Bolger trained Dazzling Park ( out of same Dam ) and who was best at 8-10f



Maybe this has influenced his decision
 
He also trained the dam, who was second in the Yorkshire Oaks and won the Irish Champion. Throw in the already blatant stamina influence of Galileo and you'd wonder why it's not the Guineas they're bypassing for the longer trip of the Derbys...
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Apr 21 2008, 01:15 PM
He also trained the dam, who was second in the Yorkshire Oaks and won the Irish Champion. Throw in the already blatant stamina influence of Galileo and you'd wonder why it's not the Guineas they're bypassing for the longer trip of the Derbys...
Gareth


Though pedigree suggest no problem at 12f, i think he may be playing it safe here, he knows step up another furlong won't be a problem at all , but 12f's could be

Dam's progeny have been seen at their best at 10f or less, a Galileo covering is trying to put more stamina into her progeny, something that is not guaranteed to happen
 
I really don’t think Bolger is trying to be “smart” and miss the Derby out of choice.

Clearly the horse is giving him signs that the Derby or the step up to 1m4f would not be suitable at this time. Basically I don’t think its Bolgers choice to bypass the race, more likely his hand is being forced by the horse itself.
 
Gal, you could be right,



Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Apr 21 2008, 01:37 PM
And if the horse runs in the Guineas, gets blatantly out-paced 2f out and stays on?




Gareth


The Guineas should be run to bring out this horses strength, just like Dewhurst did


He won Dewhurst because of the influence of stamina, RDP and Ravens Pass were out of gas

If ground is any worse than good come Guineas day, i'd forget Ravens Pass as ground more testing will probably see him choking on bit in final furlong with horses like New Approach and Twice Over (if he runs) staying on past him up that rise
 
FB is no better than 120 and the races she won reflected that abilty

She was always going to struggle in Open races, just like Attraction before her and just like Jonston, Bolger got what he could out her
 
If he`d not taken her to Longchamp and pulled her out at Ascot when the ground was wrong she`d have still been fresh as a daisy for something like the Falmouth, where Simply Perfect obviously was held on form.
 
Is it



C'mon then, you stated via PM your the best punter on here, so should have an idea regarding abilty


What do you think she was - a 130 horse?????
 
Originally posted by Charlie D@Apr 21 2008, 05:28 PM
Is it



C'mon then, you stated via PM your the best punter on here, so should have an idea regarding abilty


What do you think she was - a 130 horse?????
Mid 120s i`d say.

I didn`t say i was the best punter, one of the best was the term i used.
 
:laughing: Mid 120's my arse,

Anyone with an idea knew she'd struggle against mid 120's horses like Darjina, Ramonti, George Washington , Cockney Rebel etc
 
Put it this way, a filly winning a Guineas at 120 is a pretty average classic winning filly, and given that she won it by two and half lengths it would suggest the animals behind her are a sorry bunch by classic standards - certainly not a group that would contain future Group 1 winners. You mentioned Attraction Charlie and looking at the field behind her at Newmarket i can`t see any future Group 1 winners. FB`s defeated foes contain at least two.

**** me, you mention Cockney Rebel and Ramonti like their top class animals - do me a favour. With the three pound allowance there is no question in my mind FB would have won the 2000 if she`d taken part. Wtf did Vital Equine and Dutch Art do for the form subsequently?
 
I think it`s natural to always assume the male version is better. But that 2000 Guineas was dog ###### average. CR can`t have run to more than 126 - so FB on let`s say 123 would have gone very close.
 
Cockney Rebel won BOTH Guineas, and could only beat what was in the races, which he did easily enough. I'm sorry people are still knocking him, we don't know what he might have achieved if he hadn't gone lame

Ramonti won four Group 1s last year. You are hard to please!
Or maybe like so many you just get an idea in your head then have to keep trying to prove it
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Apr 21 2008, 06:43 PM


Ramonti won four Group 1s last year. You are hard to please!
Or maybe like so many you just get an idea in your head then have to keep trying to prove it
He was lucky in at least two of them and really again could a figure even approaching 130 be given for him. Very few people thought a mere filly could have bested him in the Moulin - but Darjina (not very far in front of FB on two occasions) certainly did.
 
Euro


Since 1997 - 1000 Guineas winners RPR

121 FB
114
115
115
118
112
115 Attraction
115
114
118
125 Cape Verdi



Average = 116



FB was an above average winner



**** me, you mention Cockney Rebel and Ramonti like their top class animals - do me a favour


against mid 120's horses like Darjina, Ramonti, George Washington , Cockney Rebel etc


No mention of TOP class horse in that statement, so please don't try and make out there is
 
Great thread. Euro is right but I am the better punter.

What have Sheikh Mo and Princess Haya got for the Derby that has meant that they have told Bolger not to bother?
 
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