New Approach
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EC1
On a break
surely a lay at that distance Gareth?
rorydelargy
At the Start
The distance will surely be ideal ~ his dam won the race, remember.
EC1
On a break
His Dam winning at the distance isn't too relevant to me because it could be argued that Park Express was sired by a sprinter whereas New Approach is sired by a stouter type in Galileo.
I am solely going on my impression of the horse itself..rather than breeding.
NA's effort iin the Derby showed a horse well suited by 12f with his best work coming purely in the last 2f.
My impression is that a drop back to 10f is a mistake...NA looks a natural 12f horse...seems like Motivator all over again to me...best form for him was at 12f...connections then tw*tted about at 10f with it...mistake imo.
for me it has to be a lay at 10f.
obviously if there is no oppo...then I would think again...can't see that being the case though
Powerscourt
At the Start
I think a strong paced 10f would be perfect for NA.
He would now be a dual Guineas winner but for Henrythenavigator.
The Irish Champion looks ideal for him but he will need a pacemaker.
He would now be a dual Guineas winner but for Henrythenavigator.
The Irish Champion looks ideal for him but he will need a pacemaker.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Exactly. I wonder how far Motivator would have got beaten by if he`d taken in Newmarket.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I'm not convinced the very highest class 12f horses are at all inconvenienced by dropping back to 10f. New Approach comes into this category, I reckon.
N
numbersix
Guest
EC1, New Approach almost won the English 2,000, denied by the smallest margin. He was not disgraced behind the same animal in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Henrythenavigator has proven himself a very good Guineas winner, becoming one of only two horses to add a St James's Palace Stakes to his haul.
Having proven himsefl virtually top class at a mile, how is it you dismiss him as a 12f + horse with no chance of winning a Group 1 at 10f ?
Beacause of all the ill feeling spread across the media about NA prior to the derby he is being robbed of the credit he deserves. He is a very classy Derby winner, potentially the best since High Chapparal in my opinion. He has every right to line up in a Gp 1 10f event, and will take all the beating provided his injury has not drained him of his high class cruising speed and cahnge of gear.
Having proven himsefl virtually top class at a mile, how is it you dismiss him as a 12f + horse with no chance of winning a Group 1 at 10f ?
Beacause of all the ill feeling spread across the media about NA prior to the derby he is being robbed of the credit he deserves. He is a very classy Derby winner, potentially the best since High Chapparal in my opinion. He has every right to line up in a Gp 1 10f event, and will take all the beating provided his injury has not drained him of his high class cruising speed and cahnge of gear.
EC1
On a break
he didn't win any guineas though...for a good reason...he didn't have the gears
all this ...if such as such hadn't run...to me is nonsense...in an average guineas there will always be a true miler to beat NA
you may as well say that in a 15 runner derby...if 12 had not run...then 13th would have...it's all about the standard of horse.
I am not crabbing NA...exactly the opposite...thought he was a good Derby winner...but if the Derby was over 10f...I doubt he would have won.
I am glad to be alone in thinking 10f is too short...by the way you guys are talking you are all going to go in heavy ...and so will most other punters...and NA will be a very short price.
all this ...if such as such hadn't run...to me is nonsense...in an average guineas there will always be a true miler to beat NA
you may as well say that in a 15 runner derby...if 12 had not run...then 13th would have...it's all about the standard of horse.
I am not crabbing NA...exactly the opposite...thought he was a good Derby winner...but if the Derby was over 10f...I doubt he would have won.
I am glad to be alone in thinking 10f is too short...by the way you guys are talking you are all going to go in heavy ...and so will most other punters...and NA will be a very short price.
New Approach did not win the Derby because he is a 12 furlong horse, he would have won it at ten furlongs. He would have beaten the Derby field over 1 mile, 10 furlongs and 12 furlongs.
I doubt many will be going in too heavy on him for the Irish Champion given the preparation he will have. He also will not be a very short price with the likelihood of Duke Of Marmalade or possibly even Henrythenavigator in against him.
I doubt many will be going in too heavy on him for the Irish Champion given the preparation he will have. He also will not be a very short price with the likelihood of Duke Of Marmalade or possibly even Henrythenavigator in against him.
EC1
On a break
what evidence have you to back up quite a sweeping statement like that? there is nothing factual to back it up...NA only got going in the last 2 furlongs...so how he wins at all these distances in your view is quite puzzling to me.
he really needed a mile at 2yo for a start..his breeding has always said 12f as an older horse...at which distance he has proved he is the best of his age group...up to press.
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How many of his generation have beat him at 10f.
Does being second in both guineas mean anything? With the only to beat him upholding the form again at Ascot, and being rated very highly by his stable. (whatever that is worth)
It is impossible to say that he wouldnt have won at 10f, but given his form at 8f and the way he pulled in the Derby, common sense would tell you that a 10f Gp 1 would be well within his compass. Of course, its fine to go against common sense, but its wrong to act as if it is outlandish that the guineas runner up would be somehow too slow for 10f. Whether he would come up against a better (older) horse at this distance in the future is a different question
Does being second in both guineas mean anything? With the only to beat him upholding the form again at Ascot, and being rated very highly by his stable. (whatever that is worth)
It is impossible to say that he wouldnt have won at 10f, but given his form at 8f and the way he pulled in the Derby, common sense would tell you that a 10f Gp 1 would be well within his compass. Of course, its fine to go against common sense, but its wrong to act as if it is outlandish that the guineas runner up would be somehow too slow for 10f. Whether he would come up against a better (older) horse at this distance in the future is a different question
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EC1
On a break
if you only back common sense then you will be backing what every other punter backs = no edge
thinking a little out of the box and getting a feel for what you are actually looking at might be more sensible...imho
my gut feel is that NA...to be seen at his best...needs 12f...others feel differently...hence we have both sides of a bet...which is what makes this game what it is.
But his ratings prove that his ability over a mile would be more than enough to beat the Derby Field over 10 furlongs. If he can beat them over a mile (which his rating proves) and could beat them over 12 furlongs despite clearly resenting going too slow early on...then all the evidence suggests he would beat the Derby field over 10 furlongs as well.
N
numbersix
Guest
Ok EC1, look at it slightly differently if you must. He won a Dewhurst beating the subsequent dual Guineas winner comfortably.
At Newmarket he was beaten in a head bobber - that is hardly evidence enough to dismiss him as being an out and out 12 furlong specialist.
As I have already said, Henrythenavigator became only the second horse in history, after rock of Gibraltar to complete the Eng/Ire Guineas/St James's Palace treble. That hardly suggests Henrythenavogator is a sub-standard Guineas winner.
NA was ridden, unusually, with restraint in the Derby and patently failed to settle. Manning found himself in a seemingly helpless position swinging into the straught because of the battle he had fought trying to switch his mount off in the previous 8 furlongs or so. He then cut his rivals down with ease. This is an exceptional horse - exceptional at two over 7f, exceptional at 3 over a mile and then 12 f. There is absolitely no evidence to suggest he will have any problem with winning a Gp 1 at 10f, especially as he is likely to be ridden with less restraint now his stamina is not in question.
At Newmarket he was beaten in a head bobber - that is hardly evidence enough to dismiss him as being an out and out 12 furlong specialist.
As I have already said, Henrythenavigator became only the second horse in history, after rock of Gibraltar to complete the Eng/Ire Guineas/St James's Palace treble. That hardly suggests Henrythenavogator is a sub-standard Guineas winner.
NA was ridden, unusually, with restraint in the Derby and patently failed to settle. Manning found himself in a seemingly helpless position swinging into the straught because of the battle he had fought trying to switch his mount off in the previous 8 furlongs or so. He then cut his rivals down with ease. This is an exceptional horse - exceptional at two over 7f, exceptional at 3 over a mile and then 12 f. There is absolitely no evidence to suggest he will have any problem with winning a Gp 1 at 10f, especially as he is likely to be ridden with less restraint now his stamina is not in question.
EC1
On a break
ratings are not that important to me though Gal...not ultimately
he was still BEATEN in both guineas..that is more important than ratings imo.
if he is so good at a mile...why is he now running over 12f + 10f?
he was still BEATEN in both guineas..that is more important than ratings imo.
if he is so good at a mile...why is he now running over 12f + 10f?
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I am not suggesting he is best at a mile, Henry has clearly showed to be his superior at that distance.
This is what I am saying, and what is the point...you said New Approach could not have won the Derby over 10 furlongs. You asked for evidence....the evidence clearly states that New Approach has the best form of all those that ran in the Derby over 7 furlongs, 8 furlongs and 12 furlongs. It is not that great a leap of faith to suggest he would be best over 10 furlongs aswell.
As Garney points out, that does not mean he will necessarily be up to beating the best over 10 furlongs (who's to say he would be over 12 furlongs either), but all the evidence, including the form book, ratings etc point to him being able to beat his Derby field over any trip it was run over.
This is what I am saying, and what is the point...you said New Approach could not have won the Derby over 10 furlongs. You asked for evidence....the evidence clearly states that New Approach has the best form of all those that ran in the Derby over 7 furlongs, 8 furlongs and 12 furlongs. It is not that great a leap of faith to suggest he would be best over 10 furlongs aswell.
As Garney points out, that does not mean he will necessarily be up to beating the best over 10 furlongs (who's to say he would be over 12 furlongs either), but all the evidence, including the form book, ratings etc point to him being able to beat his Derby field over any trip it was run over.
EC1
On a break
I am going on visual evidence Galileo...you seem to think that ratings run races...they don't horses run them.
your argument would also suggest that NA would also win a July Cup...using his ratings as a guide...and totally ignoring his distance requirement
for me..he has been most impressive...at 12f...where he looked best in the last 2 furlongs
so dropping him back is NOT a plus...imo.
your argument would also suggest that NA would also win a July Cup...using his ratings as a guide...and totally ignoring his distance requirement
for me..he has been most impressive...at 12f...where he looked best in the last 2 furlongs
so dropping him back is NOT a plus...imo.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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You seem to be assuming he'd have been as far back as he was at that point in a 12f race. No offence, but it's speculation at its most simplistic, in my opinion.
Had it been a 10f race they'd almost certainly have gone faster earlier, enabling him to settle better and he'd have been asked for his effort 2f earlier and he'd have mown them down just as readily.
Speculation and equally simplistic, and no more right or wrong.
He probably would have beaten him Derby Field if it was run over 6 furlongs!?!?
Do you not think the fact that he pulled so hard early on would suggest the test over 10 furlongs would get him settled better? I personally think he could hit the same sort of rating over 10 & 12 furlongs and a decent mark over a mile but inferior to what he could do over further. Whats more over 10 furlongs he would be ridden much handier than at Epsom.
If a Derby winner like High Chaparral could win over 10 furlongs then I have little doubt a horse like New Approach would be more than competitive considering what he has achieved over a mile todate which for some reason you continue to ignore.
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