New Approach

EC1, if New Approach didnt have form over shorter distances, like in two guineas two months ago, you would have a stronger case.

I didnt say that you said stop the derby 2f out. But given the horse led for most of the way in his mile races, I would think he would be ridden far more prominently over 10f than in the Derby. Saying that the strongest 2f were the last two in the derby is a little misleading, as it doesnt really translate like that in a 10f race. Tactics would differ. Its not that he has the one pace.

I actually think that the horse may be best at 12f, (ironically enough I suppose because his speed is rare among horses that stay 12f) He had enough speed to be placed in the guineas, and enough speed and stamina to win a derby. You seem to think that 10f is a step into hte unknown for the horse.

I think this is incorrect despite the fact he hasnt run at the trip. Its not the same situation as Duke of Marmalade in the KG for instance.
 
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fair enough Garney, points well made

you point to the unknown over 10f...my view is that it is a little more unknown than many think.

as a progressive 3yo NA has now shown 12f as being his forte...imo...trainer will be keen to train him for that distance...his miling days..although very good...are actually a little time ago...in proportion to the horse's age and development.

as a 2yo he always looked stayer rather than speed to me...just by eye that is.

my view of his miling is that he used his strength to try and run the finish out of the others...he may well be tried like that at 10f...but he looked way better conserving his energy.

I totally agree about the Duke on Saturday...am laying at odds on...cannot have the horse at 12f at that price.
 
EC1 said:
My argument was that NA did his best running AFTER 2f pole...
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It would be highly unusual for any horse at any distance to do its best running in the last two fulongs. All the evidence points to horses putting in their maximum effort over a two-furlong stretch somewhere between the 5f pole and the 1f pole and then attempting to sustain that effort to the line.

New Approach proved at Newmarket that he could not only go fast enough to outpace specialist milers and 7f horses but that he could battle on. At the Curragh he was clearly feeling the ground yet still beat all bar his Newmarket conqueror, who has since gone on to win the SJP.

At Epsom, NA pulled remorselessly for 8f because the jockey was trying to conserve the horse's energy for those final 4f and when he let him go he fairly surged past rivals who were already making their strongest run. Had he been unleashed earlier he'd have run past them just as surely.

But you can't complain about those arguing with you being barstewards if you're going to call them ratings cuddlers. That's equally insulting.
 
I'm not decided one way or the other about how much of a stamina test the Derby was. I've always thought (and you can search back and find me saying so last autumn) that New Approach would get 12f fine. What I'm wondering is whether the way the Derby played out showed that the horse would be perfectly capable of running to his best over 10f. He needed a lot of raw speed to make up the ground he'd given up at the start, and a fair bit of stamina to sustain that withering run all the way to the line. I just don't think it was a one-dimensional staying performance like many Derbys. It was more special than that - the horse is more special than that.
 
EC1 said:
I never realised DB's Arc was only run over 10f...learned something there
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EC1, no DBs Arc was run over the full 12f. My point was that just because he was not leading at the 2 pole (he only led in the final 100 yds), does not mean he would not have won the Arc that year had it been staged over 10f instead of 12f.

I still don't buy the argument he was all about stamina at 2. He won a Dewhurst over 7f - out and out stayers do not win Dewhursts - you have to have an abundance of tactical speed to win that race.
 
No 6

you still are not getting it...I never said...stop the race at 10f...I said..if the race was run over 10f...a big difference

yes I realised DB's arc was run over 12f..seen it enough times by now...was just playing

i do understand that races have to be completed to make any sense of them you know...even though most here are real keen to make me the froum fool..I do know a little about racing...and probably have more manners than those taking the rise to boot.
 
EC1 said:
No 6

you still are not getting it...I never said...stop the race at 10f...I said..if the race was run over 10f...a big difference

yes I realised DB's arc was run over 12f..seen it enough times by now...was just playing

i do understand that races have to be completed to make any sense of them you know...even though most here are real keen to make me the froum fool..I do know a little about racing...and probably have more manners than those taking the rise to boot.
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EC1 you stated that

"My argument was that NA did his best running AFTER 2f pole."
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There is a strong implication there that he could not have won the Derby had it been contested over 10f. Fine, if that is not what you meant. However your whole argument is either serious or that of a troll.

To suggest the upping in trip from 1m to 12f is in some why admission he is an out and out stayer shows no grasp of Flat racing history. Many of the greats went to Epsom after Newmarket, and the reason? Ever heard of the word "breeding"? Having paid a fortune for the horse, the Maktoums will have had a game plan which included proving himself at a variety of distances. His Dewhurst victory left most people (apart from you) with the view that he had a rare turn of foot. So the next part of the plan would be to gain a classic win - if he wins the Guineas so be it, but a Derby would add to his stud value immeasurably.

"Dewhurst+shd 2nd in Guineas+ Derby winner".

What does that indicate - a horse without the speed to win a Gp 1 at 10f? Or a horse with the rare tactical speed and stamina to boot to take on allcomers over 10f with confidence?
 
i was ready for replying...but got that bloody annoying carry on where you write the post out...press submit...and teh bloody log in screen comes up...and you can't go back to your post

later
 
I have seen nothing to suggest that NA would be inconvenienced by 10f. When did we have a top horse who was top class at a mile and 12f but useless at 10f? Cant think of one myself
 
quick simple answer to CliveX

he isn't a top class miler..he got patently out-SPEEDed in an average guineas...I didn't make it out to be an average guineas by the way either...the ratings worshippers have done that by harping on about them...so I gave a clear example of how average the guineas was compared to previous ones...using THEIR criterion.

the sooner you guys realise the guineas was only average..the sooner you will dispel this myth that NA is some kind of speedball..the winner made him look a plodder in the last furlong.
 
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Fair enough. A bit harsh maybe, but i always think these things are easier to accurately assess in time (when its too late to bet..)
 
it's hard to believe so much discussion has been derived from me suggesting the horse is worth laying at 10f...a simple observation

I hope you guys don't lose a REAL large amount of money backing NA ...as it appears you must be going to do with such confidence being shown in this REALLY good thing

cue lots of posts saying...oh no..I won't be backing it due to ...fit in excuse...

I will get back to answer you later No 6 :cool:
 
There is a strong implication there that he could not have won the Derby had it been contested over 10f. Fine, if that is not what you meant. However your whole argument is either serious or that of a troll.
love the troll bit mate…

Freeze framing a race is totally different to saying a horse would not have won if running over shorter. I never said freeze frame the race at 10f..and definately am not daft enough to think a race works like that. My argument was that had the Derby been run over 10f then NA would have got going too late…of course many will argue that next time he will race more prominently if put over 10f…flawed to me is that thinking…..for one…it’s a guess…and for two..it would oh so easy to put another front runner in there to stop that tactic working.

To suggest the upping in trip from 1m to 12f is in some why admission he is an out and out stayer shows no grasp of Flat racing history
I never really suggested that because a horse is upped he is automatically a stayer..my view of NA..is similar to that of Teofilo..always thought he would get tapped for toe in a guineas and would be better over the Derby trip. In an above average gunieas there would have been another couple of HTN’s running passed him.

Ever heard of the word "breeding"?
yes..a few times

Having paid a fortune for the horse, the Maktoums will have had a game plan which included proving himself at a variety of distances.
keep messing a 3yo about with different trips and you will end up with lots of really impressive placed runs…look familiar?

His Dewhurst victory left most people (apart from you) with the view that he had a rare turn of foot
You , like many, appear to treat 7f as a 2yo as if the horse "sees" it as a mature horse does..it doesn’t..it sees 7f at that age as about 10f as a mature horse would..7f is NOT a speed test for a 2yo.

"Dewhurst+shd 2nd in Guineas+ Derby winner".

What does that indicate - a horse without the speed to win a Gp 1 at 10f? Or a horse with the rare tactical speed and stamina to boot to take on allcomers over 10f with confidence?
well..clearly it indicates different things to different people…or I would be seeing as you would.

Dewhurst…not a speed test

Guineas…speed test…got patently outspeeded…in a better renewal would have had another couple of speedier types nipping past.

Derby…at last..the right test for this horse



It’s this …NA is a speed ball …where I greatly differ in opinion with people on this thread…to me he is no such thing…he’s possibly one of the best 12f 3yo’s we have seen for a while.

What I do not understand here..most of you are obsessed with ratings…but the ratings show the guineas was average…not special…but you are still talking as though Dancing Brave won it and NA nearly beat a horse of that calibre.
 
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You , like many, appear to treat 7f as a 2yo as if the horse "sees" it as a mature horse does..it doesn’t..it sees 7f at that age as about 10f as a mature horse would..7f is NOT a speed test for a 2yo.
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Bit of a contradiction there. If 7f at 2 is analagous to 10f at 3 (something which I generally agree with), why is New Approach a lay over the latter having proved a champion at the former?
 
EC1 said:
flawed to me is that thinking…..for one…it’s a guess…and for two..it would oh so easy to put another front runner in there to stop that tactic working.
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Surely an educated guess though, EC1, given that he had the pace to tow the Guineas field along from the start at a decent enough gallop. Provided that Bolger has gotten New Approach to settle since Epsom (which is, admittedly, a guess) I don't think they'd be the least bit concerned by not having to make the running. It's worth noting that Kevin Manning never intended for New Approach to be as far back as he was at Epsom.

Like most others here, I can't see any reason why New Approach will be hindered by the drop in trip. You dismiss the Guineas as an "average" renewal, (not much argument from me on that front to be honest) yet you seemingly disregard the fact that New Approach got to within virtually a nose of beating what, I would argue at least, is a very good Guineas winner and a horse that will IMO (if he has not done so already) prove himself an absolutely top-class miler in Henrythenavigator.

I will readily concede that Henrythenavigator almost certainly came on from that run and the Curragh form is ultimately more representative of his superiority over New Approach at a mile (though I maintain the quick ground at the Curragh must also be taken into consideration). Nevertheless, there's hardly any shame in that, is there?

As others have said, it's of course possible that New Approach will be beaten on merit by Henrythenavigator or an older horse over 10 furlongs. However, if that happens, I for one won't be holding the trip up as a reason why.
 
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Were New Approach to have the Arc as his end of season target, I can't think of a worse race to choose as a prep than the Irish Champion.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Bit of a contradiction there. If 7f at 2 is analagous to 10f at 3 (something which I generally agree with), why is New Approach a lay over the latter having proved a champion at the former?
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because even at 2 he isn't fully developed distance wise...horse is still a baby

winning the Dewhurst isn't really championship stuff either re this moment in time is it?..lots more competition as a 3yo
 
one or two horses have used the Champion as a stepper Trackside...might be wrong here but Dalakhani and Suave Dancer spring to mind...correct me if I am wrong

I've nothing more to add to my view anyway...I'll be the first to admit if I'm wrong if he does run in the race...making excuses before about...if it doesn't win then it won't be the distance...don't really impress me much...it's like argueing you are right and not being prepared to admit you are wrong...that sort of view...as expressed a couple of times on this thread here smacks of never being wrong attitude

it's no disgrace to get it wrong...if I did not hold my opinion... this thread would be made up of...aye NA should win...nice one...great horse...blah blah blah ....pretty boring stuff I reckoin
 
EC1 said:
one or two horses have used the Champion as a stepper Trackside...might be wrong here but Dalakhani and Suave Dancer spring to mind...correct me if I am wrong

I've nothing more to add to my view anyway...I'll be the first to admit if I'm wrong if he does run in the race...making excuses before about...if it doesn't win then it won't be the distance...don't really impress me much...it's like argueing you are right and not being prepared to admit you are wrong...that sort of view...as expressed a couple of times on this thread here smacks of never being wrong attitude

it's no disgrace to get it wrong...if I did not hold my opinion... this thread would be made up of...aye NA should win...nice one...great horse...blah blah blah ....pretty boring stuff I reckoin
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Dalakhani did not win the Irish Champion Stakes, Dylan Thomas did and then won the Arc. The Irish Champion would be a terrible race for New Approach if the Arc is the main aim as he would be an ideal type to bounce off the wall after a big effort in the Irish Champion.

As for everyone saying New Approach should win, or he is a great horse....name me one person on this thread that has said any of those? In fact a few have said while the trip is not a problem, he still might not be good enough to win again the older horses!
 
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