New Approach

[Euronymous]

he was still BEATEN in both guineas..that is more important than ratings imo.

if he is so good at a mile...why is he now running over 12f + 10f?

If he was beaten in both Guineas by a run of the mill miler i would agree, but the form he showed at Newmarket was good enough to win probably six Guineas out of ten, and that`s being conservative. He is a high class miler now running over further because he is bred to improve over a trip - something he has done.

Although he`s had three races relatively close together he has had a break since early June and with a nice pipe opener in September I have every confidence he will be cherry ripe for Longchamp in October.

 

[EC1]

there is an awful lot of assumptions going on here...6 out of ten guineas???...are you sure? what have you based that massive assumption on?....would have won the Derby if run over 10f...how can you possibly assume that....or is just saying it with a few that agree.. enough to make it so?

It's very easy to say he would have won this...won that...if they go really fast early and stop dead he could win a July Cup etc.

to me thats being simplistic about a complex subject ...well they go a bit faster at 10f so NA is sure to have his stamina brought into play...but the race is two furlongs less...so less track to pull it back...it's not exactly a sliding scale issue is it?...but it is being spoke of here that races work just in this way....and I'm accused of being simplistic...mmmm

Some good points made anyway...I can see your arguments clearly...but I'm not really buying them...because my gut feeling is 12f is going to continue to be the best distance...yes he may run ok at shorter...but his Derby win was his most impressive one...why mess about with him?

Someone mentioned Motivator could not have run well in a guineas...again..how the heck can that statement be made?..pure guesswork...if he had run from the front..he might have clung on to a place...as NA did...but no way would you campaign a true 12f horse at a mile...just because he grinds out placings in them.

NA is a great animal imo...he should be run at his best distance...or are they using the Champion as a prep/tick over race for the real target later on?

 

[Guest_]

It is not guess work that he would beat them at 10 furlongs. He has the best mile form by far, the best 12 furlong form...that is fact. Given that he is effective at both trips, it is not guess work to think he would be as effective at 10 furlongs against the horses he beat in the Derby. The likes of Tartan Bearer, Washington Irving would have little chance against him at a mile or 10 furlongs.

 

[EC1]

until they meet over 10f...it is still guesswork Galileo..no matter what the ratings say

top rated [by any ratings service, OHR etc] horses win about 20% of races don't they?...so your guess has 80% uncertainty..so until a race over 10f materialises..it's guessing.

I will bet one thing though...if he does run over 10f...and loses...it will be any excuse ..bar the trip was too short ..when we discuss it here

 

[Harbinger]

EC - do you think, given how it was run, that the Derby presented a true stamina test for New Approach?

 

[Guest_]

until they meet over 10f...it is still guesswork Galileo..no matter what the ratings say

top rated [by any ratings service, OHR etc] horses win about 20% of races don't they?...so your guess has 80% uncertainty..so until a race over 10f materialises..it's guessing.

I will bet one thing though...if he does run over 10f...and loses...it will be any excuse ..bar the trip was too short ..when we discuss it here

Err then until they meet over 10 furlongs your guessing he won't be as effective...guess work. My "guess work" is based on the flat he showed top class form over a mile already this season, had the pace to win two Group 1s over 7 furlongs as a two year old, and is a natural front runner who could easily make a 10 furlong race a serious test.

 

[Sheikh]

If any of the Derby field had the speed for a Guineas they would have run in it.Therefore it is a reasonable assumption (seeing as he was a close second) that he would have beaten the any of that Derby field over a mile.He did beat them over an easy 1m4f so how can he not beat them over 10f if he is on form

 

[Euronymous]

there is an awful lot of assumptions going on here...6 out of ten guineas???...are you sure? what have you based that massive assumption on?

Why is it a massive assumption? He ran in a decent renewal and was beaten a nose by a far better than average rival. It seems clear therefore that in other years he`d have beaten average Guineas winners.

 

[EC1]

EC - do you think, given how it was run, that the Derby presented a true stamina test for New Approach?

yes...all the placed horses are stamina types...not speed.

The distance between first and last was 89 lengths..Bashkirov..rated 84 going in to the race was 50 lengths behind the winner...Kandahar Run rated 105 was 39 lengths behind the winner...if the race was not a true test they surely would have finished closer...bunched up.

 

[EC1]

If any of the Derby field had the speed for a Guineas they would have run in it.Therefore it is a reasonable assumption (seeing as he was a close second) that he would have beaten the any of that Derby field over a mile.He did beat them over an easy 1m4f so how can he not beat them over 10f if he is on form

I don't see that your first assumption is that logical tbh...many Derbys have had non stayers run in them that might have been better of aimed at the guineas


The Derby isn't an easy 12f...it's got plenty of uphill...as well as downhill...they climb straight from the start...the finish is also uphill.

12f Epsom isn't a slide rule fit for 10f elsewhere...horse racing isn't that linear.

 

[Harbinger]

The last placed horse was a flat maiden who'd spent the spring hurdling in the French provinces. Bashkirov and Kandahar run were both eased down in the final furlong. What does that have to do with it being a stamina test?

Anyway, hopefully New Approach makes it to Leopardstown and faces a field capable of testing him - depending on the animals he faces he could be as effective over 10f as he is over 12f and lose, or he could be less effective and still win.

 

[EC1]

Why is it a massive assumption? He ran in a decent renewal and was beaten a nose by a far better than average rival. It seems clear therefore that in other years he`d have beaten average Guineas winners.

well as it seems ratings are thoroughly admired...these are the the RPR's for the last few guineas

Cockney Rebel 124
George Washington 127
Footstepinthesand 118
Haafhd 127
Refuse To Bend 118
Rock Of Gibraltor 123
Golan 122
Kings Best 131
King Of Kings 124
Entrepreneur 124
Mark Of Esteem 123
Pennekamp 127

New Approach got a 123..which means he would have beaten what many folk would say are the worst guineas winners out of those

I make it 3 clear wins from 12 looking at that list...the two dead heats could have gone either way....so lets give him one more then

The 3 he beats aren't really great shakes are they?

 

[EC1]

Th What does that have to do with it being a stamina test?

because if it wasn't..then the finishers would have been more in a heap...I doubt anyone would have to ease any horses down if they walked round and sprinted 3 furlongs..most horses wouldn't have got tired enough to be beat that far.

 

[EC1]

next

 

[Sheikh]

I think the big guns would prefer to win a Guineas tham a Derby for commercial reasons and so would run there if they thought they had a chance, but thats a different kettle of fish.

12f Epsom isn't a slide rule fit for 10f elsewhere...horse racing isn't that linear

Of course but 10f horses can win (or Nearly win) Epsom Derbys.Hawk wing was only found out late on and it was 12 lenghts to the third.

 

[Guest_]

well as it seems ratings are thoroughly admired...these are the the RPR's for the last few guineas

Cockney Rebel 124
George Washington 127
Footstepinthesand 118
Haafhd 127
Refuse To Bend 118
Rock Of Gibraltor 123
Golan 122
Kings Best 131
King Of Kings 124
Entrepreneur 124
Mark Of Esteem 123
Pennekamp 127

New Approach got a 123..which means he would have beaten what many folk would say are the worst guineas winners out of those

I make it 3 clear wins from 12 looking at that list...the two dead heats could have gone either way....so lets give him one more then

The 3 he beats aren't really great shakes are they?

I thought you did not use ratings? But when they suit...

 

[Harbinger]

because if it wasn't..then the finishers would have been more in a heap...I doubt anyone would have to ease any horses down if they walked round and sprinted 3 furlongs..most horses wouldn't have got tired enough to be beat that far.

I'm not sure where you personally draw the line about what constitutes a bunched finish (the first 11 home were only seperated by 12 lengths, after all), but as a general rule of thumb it's fine. But why on earth would you want to use Maidstone Mixture to try and prove the point?

 

[numbersix]

there is an awful lot of assumptions going on here...would have won the Derby if run over 10f...how can you possibly assume that....

And how can you assume that we would not have won? The horse was stepping up 4 furlongs on previous form and conenctions clearly doubted his stamina and he was ridden accordingly. You argument about who won the Derby at the 2 pole is as absurd - the race was run over 12 not 10 f.

Without any stamina doubts in the future (especially given how hard he pulled at Epsom and still won) he will undoubtedly be ridden handy in future and will take all the beating at 10 f.

 

[EC1]

I thought you did not use ratings? But when they suit...

for one...they were in response to the..would win 6 out of the last 10 guineas comment

for two...this thread demonstrates that ratings worship is the norm...so I spoke in a language you ratings cuddlers would understand

the suiting bit...looks like you don't like ratings being used in a way that DOESN'T suit you ...from where I am standing anyway

looks to me like the guineas was a pretty average running...nowt special...as most here seem to think it was really smart...hung by your own raings worship methinks

I'm not sure where you personally draw the line about what constitutes a bunched finish (the first 11 home were only seperated by 12 lengths, after all), but as a general rule of thumb it's fine. But why on earth would you want to use Maidstone Mixture to try and prove the point?

Now Gareth..I didn't particularly use MM...the other two made the case

You apppear to think it wasn't a test of stamina...and that speed won the day...I can't follow that one...but if you think that then fair play to you.

And how can you assume that we would not have won? The horse was stepping up 4 furlongs on previous form and conenctions clearly doubted his stamina and he was ridden accordingly. You argument about who won the Derby at the 2 pole is as absurd - the race was run over 12 not 10 f.

Without any stamina doubts in the future (especially given how hard he pulled at Epsom and still won) he will undoubtedly be ridden handy in future and will take all the beating at 10 f.

we???...you aren't NA in horsen are you?

My argument was that NA did his best running AFTER 2f pole...so I am not understanding your suggestion I freeze framed the race at 10f??

You know for sure they will ride him handy over 10f?...are you sure?... YOU are not also guessing here as well are you?

Lets face it...this whole thread is a guessers paradise...it's just that you guys are all guessing the same way...and I am questioning it.

some good arguments put forward though...but lots of guessing...and ratings hugging.

It's funny...I seem to remember getting LOTS of stick for bandying speed ratings about in the past...coz they are b@llocks according to most forum posters...but macho HANDICAP RATINGS are not to be questioned

 

[Garney]

Ratings are one of the few objective ways of judging NA ability at a mile. Rather than staying it was a poor race, or he should have won 2 guineas if HTN didnt turn up. The ratings, generally, dont take sides. It doesnt stop the derby 2f out and see who is in the lead.

Using RPR (one person's opinion still) NA ran his best race ever at 12f, in the Derb (126). A 1lb better performance than his 7f Dewhurst, and 3lb better than his guineas.

There is no reason that a horse could run to 123 over a mile, 126 over 12f, but couldnt hit 120 at 10f. So, you can safely expect NA to run to something between 120 and 128 over 10f. Anything else would be an extraordinarily good/bad performance. Whether this would be good enough to win an all aged gp1 is antoher thing.

 

[numbersix]

EC1, where is the guessing? NA was ridden with restraint in the Derby for the first time in his life because connections had stamina doubts. The horse failed to settle, and in 99.99% of racers where horses pull as hard as he did that day, they fall in a heap. Which makes most sane watchers of the race conclude he is an exceptional Derby winner overcoming this and traffic problems.

Now that there is absolutely no modicum of doubt the horse stays 12f, there is every likelihood he will adopt more familiar tactics when dropped in trip. At the curragh one assumes Upton Grey was in as a pace maker so one imagines that tactic may be used at Leopardstown with NA sitting in his slipstream.

You are also continuing to ignore Henrythenavigator's subsequent victories at the Curragh and Ascot which make him an exceptional miler against 3 yo peers (focusing rather obsessively and naively on his Guineas rating as if that is the only race he has competed in this term), and there is every chance he will prove equally exceptional when taking on his elders.

A less well thought out argument I am yet to see on a racing forum EC1.

 

[EC1]

It doesnt stop the derby 2f out and see who is in the lead.

I never suggested anyone do that...someone else on this thread has invented that nonsense

good argument Garney...all based on theory though...same as my argument really...mines simplistic nonsense apparently

ratings really seem to rule here don't they?

just to remind you...top rated horses...on any rating method win about 20% of the time..25 if you are lucky

are they really the be all and end all i wonder?

 

[EC1]

You are also continuing to ignore Henrythenavigator's subsequent victories at the Curragh and Ascot which make him an exceptional miler against 3 yo peers (focusing rather obsessively and naively on his Guineas rating as if that is the only race he has competed in this term), and there is every chance he will prove equally exceptional when taking on his elders.

A less well thought out argument I am yet to see on a racing forum EC1.

HTN is an average guineas winner...same as Cockney Rebel...winning back to back guineas don't make a horse great...consistent yes

you don't read threads properly either...I haven't naively focussed on the guineas...the focus on the guineas was brought up by someone else who was stating that NA wins 6 of the last 10 guineas...i answered that point...a point on it's own that imo was nonsense..but instead of calling the person a thick barsteward in effect...as a few of you are seeming to be implying about me..i answered it with reasoned argument

it's real easy to call someone simple..and imply they are thick..or of lower intellect because they don't happen to agree with you

imo...insulting someones opinion is the sign of someone not able to argue their corner

i take on board all opinions passed here..just don't agree with them..nowt personal...might be nice to receive the same respect eh?

you obviously don't read many racing forums no 6

 

[numbersix]

EC1 steady on. I have not levelled any insults at you - simply observed your that defence is very poorly thought out.

In respect of Henry you have focused on his Newmarket run, in an attempt imo to detract from his subsequent exploits in order to keep your theory alive.

Only 6 horses have won the English and Irish Guineas since 1921. And as I have already said only two have supplement that brace with a St James's Palace Stakes. That mark's Henry down as being an exceptional 3 year old against his own generation.

Let's look at your main argument another way. If the 1986 Arc was run over 10f instead of 12f, would Dancing Brave have not won simply because in the 12 f version he was not in the lead at the 2 furling pole?

Cased closed your honour!

 

[EC1]

sorry No 6

I wasn't really having a go at just you..it just seems that a few comments on this thread seem to suggest i'm a bit daft for thinking 10f is a neg...maybe I am....simple and naive is a little patronising imo..specially when we are all actually guessing...albeit with our own evidence at hand.

I'll just clear this 10f stop the race stuff up...i NEVER said stop the race at 10f...I said if the race had been run over 10f...think there is confusion here...my point was that they will go faster over 10...but a stamina horse will still need more than 10f and will run out of track at the end before he has chance to outstay horses

I never realised DB's Arc was only run over 10f...learned something there