NH Racing in Crisis

[yorick]

One example of a post I put up in another forum in Nov:

"No fewer than 31 Nr's at Southwell citing 'going' as the reason!!!!!

2 x R4's adding up to a 20% deduction in any winnings, fields reduced to 4, 6, 5, 3, 5, 5, 4."

Yes, heavy going, I know but I wonder how many of those trainers would have declared their runners if the decs were the day before.

As I wrote before, it's so difficult to get the stats about NR's before and after the 48hr rule because the BHA won't tell me the figures. I've emailed and emailed and they just won't. You can bet that they have the figures alright. I think the trainers, who were against the changes when announced were told they'd have to put up with it. Since then, my view is that they've been abusing the system since and that the BHA are turning a blind eye.

And another from Feb last year about our beloved NH racing:

"I’m afraid we are seeing the death throes of NH chase racing in this country.

Day after day of 3/4 runner fields and where 6/7 runners are now seen as standard.

Pathetic prizes, trainers who won’t run their horses because the ground is too soft/not soft enough.

It’s getting to the point of no return.

I looked at racing today and thought: pathetic, why bother? Tomorrow too.

Then we get that stupid poll on RP website about racing. At last, I thought. Then we find it’s just about affordability checks and the Racing Post. No questions asking what we, the punters, think of the racing we’re given"

I write thes posts only to illustrate that month after month, year after year goes by with just no hope of improvement.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I admire your dedication and work ethic but I really cannot see how it can take all that amount of time.
How many races do you actually study?

I realise that my approach is completely different to yours and I am by no means criticising.

I spend probably two hours evening before or early morning studying which usually gives me a long list of about 10 races with a possible bet. My initial race selections are attained from trainer stats, so I then look for any negatives for the relevant runner. This rapidly gets me down to bets of usually no more than five per day.

Take tomorrow. It's, for me, a quiet day in terms of races for studying and punting.

Six races 'worth looking at'. Maybe 60 runners. I started at about 7pm and finished about 11.30pm. So, on average, 4-5 minutes per horse. It takes longer for horses I'm not so familiar with and Irish horses.

Then I still have to type up my figures and write up my synopses. I find doing that helps me think things through more clearly. I usually don't decide on what to back until I'm actually writing it up, when I'm looking at my figures in order from the top down and the best odds going. I've learned to my cost over the years that this works better for me than just looking at my written figures on a card.

 

[reet hard]

Bottom line.
Bookmakers are calling the shots,as it attracts money from abroad.
That ain't going to change until the BHA take them out of the equation.

 

[barjon]

Take tomorrow. It's, for me, a quiet day in terms of races for studying and punting.

Six races 'worth looking at'. Maybe 60 runners. I started at about 7pm and finished about 11.30pm. So, on average, 4-5 minutes per horse. It takes longer for horses I'm not so familiar with and Irish horses.

Then I still have to type up my figures and write up my synopses. I find doing that helps me think things through more clearly. I usually don't decide on what to back until I'm actually writing it up, when I'm looking at my figures in order from the top down and the best odds going. I've learned to my cost over the years that this works better for me than just looking at my written figures on a card.

I was about to say that seems a lot of hard work (who was it who said “The harder I work at it the better I seem to get” ) when I realised I spend as much time watching race replays. The main bets come from trackers - ready to rock (hopefully) - and the raceday “analysis” is minimal. Merely checking that conditions etc are ok and casting an eye over the opposition and the market.

 

[Desert Orchid]

"The harder I work the luckier I get" is usually attributed to Samuel Goldwyn but I think there's a school of thought (has there ever been a horse called 'School Of Thought'? - potentially nice enough name to be worthy of a Derby winner. Mrs Magnier, are you reading this?) that says it dates back to Thomas Jefferson (no relation to Ruth, I don't think )

If I'm watching the racing with nowt else on my mind and no bets in a race I'll sometimes throw a pound or two away on one based on something the ITV people say or a last-minute interview. Somewhere along the line the team seems to get word about what's trying and sort out an interview with the owner or trainer. I noticed this particularly during lockdown when they did interviews with owners on zoom calls. That pound or two has sometimes partially recouped losses.

*Edit - three horses in the RP index with the name.

 

[Len Madeiros]

"The harder I work the luckier I get" is usually attributed to Samuel Goldwyn but I think there's a school of thought (has there ever been a horse called 'School Of Thought'? - potentially nice enough name to be worthy of a Derby winner. Mrs Magnier, are you reading this?) that says it dates back to Thomas Jefferson (no relation to Ruth, I don't think )

If I'm watching the racing with nowt else on my mind and no bets in a race I'll sometimes throw a pound or two away on one based on something the ITV people say or a last-minute interview. Somewhere along the line the team seems to get word about what's trying and sort out an interview with the owner or trainer. I noticed this particularly during lockdown when they did interviews with owners on zoom calls. That pound or two has sometimes partially recouped losses.

*Edit - three horses in the RP index with the name.

I swear by this latter method, so I always hold back a bit of my Saturday pot for such snippets; Nicholls is very good in this regard. You won’t win fortunes on the 15/8 favourite, with a quote of “This is his Cheltenham”, but it’s a fair wind to have behind you.

 

[yorick]

"The harder I work the luckier I get" is usually attributed to Samuel Goldwyn but I think there's a school of thought (has there ever been a horse called 'School Of Thought'? - potentially nice enough name to be worthy of a Derby winner. Mrs Magnier, are you reading this?) that says it dates back to Thomas Jefferson (no relation to Ruth, I don't think )

If I'm watching the racing with nowt else on my mind and no bets in a race I'll sometimes throw a pound or two away on one based on something the ITV people say or a last-minute interview. Somewhere along the line the team seems to get word about what's trying and sort out an interview with the owner or trainer. I noticed this particularly during lockdown when they did interviews with owners on zoom calls. That pound or two has sometimes partially recouped losses.

*Edit - three horses in the RP index with the name.

More recently the saying was uttered by Gary Player.

'In an interview in Golf Digest magazine in 2002 Gary Player presents an entertaining story about the origin of the expression [GPGD]:

I was practicing in a bunker down in Texas and this good old boy with a big hat stopped to watch. The first shot he saw me hit went in the hole. He said, “You got 50 bucks if you knock the next one in.” I holed the next one. Then he says, “You got $100 if you hole the next one.” In it went for three in a row. As he peeled off the bills he said, “Boy, I’ve never seen anyone so lucky in my life.” And I shot back, “Well, the harder I practice, the luckier I get.” That’s where the quote originated.'

 

[Janthefish]

Surprised nobody mentioned overwatering. Years ago went to Royal Ascot and the going was G/F in those days firm was allowed in going. High numbers dominated. Next day no rain so concentrated on those drawn high in handicaps. The Clerk of the course had overwatered on the one side and even though the official going was G/F it was G/S -Soft on the one side. That was the first sign I was wasting my time studying form.

When I was regularly going racing I'd have welcomed 48 hours decs.

 

[yorick]

Surprised nobody mentioned overwatering. Years ago went to Royal Ascot and the going was G/F in those days firm was allowed in going. High numbers dominated. Next day no rain so concentrated on those drawn high in handicaps. The Clerk of the course had overwatered on the one side and even though the official going was G/F it was G/S -Soft on the one side. That was the first sign I was wasting my time studying form.

When I was regularly going racing I'd have welcomed 48 hours decs.

Why's that Jan?

 

[Janthefish]

Why's that Jan?

For example,3 day meeting at Chester, in those days Tuesday-Thursday after Bank Holiday Monday. Get back from Monday racing knackered, have to do card as leaving early for long drive to Chester, a day racing and needed to relax with a couple of drinks then had to stay concentrated or wake up really early to do next card ( had to be out of hotel by 10.00 am. If I could have first days card on Sunday, would have been far easier

 

[yorick]

Today is a typical example of the NH racing shambles and how it affects thousand upon thousand of everyday backers:


I bet on two horses for two ew singles and an ew double. In one of the races there were 6 runners when I put the bet on. I've just looked at the race and there are two NR's.

So, the Ew double must now be a win double. I would never have put that horse simply to win. So, suppose I cash out? Yup, my win double cash out has been reduced with a 20% reduction.
Firstly, the 6 - runner field is more the norm these days - useless. Secondly, the NR's, again, smash all betting plans.

What's the point?

Before anyone answers ' Stop complaining, just don't bet if you're that bothered', I'm supposing that those who run racing probably feel the same - they just don't want the customers; couldn't give a damn. My answer would would be that I sure as hell don't have to bet but for years I have done and it's been an enjoyable hobby. Surely it's not about me giving up but them improving the product. No?

 

[yorick]

The 48hr decs are a godsend to serious students of the form. I don't look at midweek racing so probably don't qualify as a 'serious' student but I did (and am slowly getting back into it) spend a lot of time on the weekend cards and having that extra time was certainly something I felt I benefitted from. I don't know enough about midweek stuff to comment on it but I don't think weekend racing is all that affected by non-runners.

25 NR's at Donny today giving the reason as "Going".

On another forum that I post on, one forumite, on Saturday morning said that Donny had had so much rain overnight, the going would change to soft or heavy. Surely with the old decs system, the trainers might not have declred their runners because they'd seen the rain arrive. No?

 

[Desert Orchid]

I don't think it would make that much difference overall, though, yorick.

With the trainers declaring at 24 hours they'd have to let the authorities know by about 10.30am the day before, ie yesterday, when it wasn't really known at that point how soft the ground was.

You can't really allow for weather that is worse than forecast. Some of my bets at Doncaster yesterday were based on the ground being as described on Friday evening when it was still officially "good to soft". (I'm not best pleased with myself for not checking the forecast for the Doncaster area.) 24 hour decs wouldn't have had any effect on anything.

I'd half-expected Kelso to be snowed off, looking at the forecast, so took the "good to soft" description with a pinch of salt but it did make me bet more cautiously than might otherwise have been the case. Bets at Newbury were very cautious because of the conditions. Again, I really don't think 24 hour decs would have had any material effect on matters.

 

[yorick]

I don't think it would make that much difference overall, though, yorick.

With the trainers declaring at 24 hours they'd have to let the authorities know by about 10.30am the day before, ie yesterday, when it wasn't really known at that point how soft the ground was.

You can't really allow for weather that is worse than forecast. Some of my bets at Doncaster yesterday were based on the ground being as described on Friday evening when it was still officially "good to soft". (I'm not best pleased with myself for not checking the forecast for the Doncaster area.) 24 hour decs wouldn't have had any effect on anything.

I'd half-expected Kelso to be snowed off, looking at the forecast, so took the "good to soft" description with a pinch of salt but it did make me bet more cautiously than might otherwise have been the case. Bets at Newbury were very cautious because of the conditions. Again, I really don't think 24 hour decs would have had any material effect on matters.

As for the forecast: you write that you were annoyed about not checking the forecast. Well, the trainers, too, could have done that.

I think it was clear by then that the ground was already softer and the rain had begun. The clerk's ground report was posted at 7.30 a.m. 25! I don't think I'm moaning over nothing, mate. Another thing is I think trainers may be abusing the system somewhat.

I do wish the BHA would answer my question about a comparison in the figures pre and post the change in the decs rule but they just refuse to answer my enquiries.

 

[reet hard]

As for the forecast: you write that you were annoyed about not checking the forecast. Well, the trainers, too, could have done that.

I think it was clear by then that the ground was already softer and the rain had begun. The clerk's ground report was posted at 7.30 a.m. 25! I don't think I'm moaning over nothing, mate. Another thing is I think trainers may be abusing the system somewhat.

I do wish the BHA would answer my question about a comparison in the figures pre and post the change in the decs rule but they just refuse to answer my enquiries.

Tbf,the BHA's probable reply would be that they couldn't allow for unforecast and significant changes in the going, as with trainers and punters the world over

 

[yorick]

I know what you mean, mate, but, still, there's a world of difference in our Islands between knowing what the weather will be tomorrow or in 48 hours. No? And I've sort of answered that in the post above.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Forecasting is 95% minimum accurate two days ahead, I reckon.

The RP gives a decent enough overview of what the weather and conditions will be like.

This is a screenshot of the going and weather Tuesday's meetings. I accept that sometimes a trainer can't decide if the going is suitable until the yard has someone there in person but, again (imo), 24h decs wouldn't change anything cos the trainer/staff probably wouldn't be there until the morning of the race.

 

[Outsider]

My favourite advanced going description was at Worcester.
"Choppy"
Well the course was under water.

 

[yorick]

Haha!

 

[yorick]

Forecasting is 95% minimum accurate two days ahead, I reckon.

The RP gives a decent enough overview of what the weather and conditions will be like.

This is a screenshot of the going and weather Tuesday's meetings. I accept that sometimes a trainer can't decide if the going is suitable until the yard has someone there in person but, again (imo), 24h decs wouldn't change anything cos the trainer/staff probably wouldn't be there until the morning of the race.

View attachment 3148

What strikes me about those going forecasts at Ling and Newc are not likely to change in any way by Tuesday. Even with dry days. I would say that I'd be surprised if there are any withdrawals on account of 'going'.

 

[yorick]

Here's a great example, DO.

Huntingdon today. The Going is described as 'Soft - good to soft in places'. Now, what could the problem be? The trainers were waiting to see if the ground was going to be heavy enough? that it was going to ride 'Good'?

There are 20 (!) non-runners!! for which the reason is cited as 'Going'.

Incredible - absolutely incredible.

 

[yorick]

And again at Huntingdon today.

10 Nr's on going that is soft. If these had to be declared 24hrs before racing would they all have stood their ground so that, when we looked at 'tomorrow's cards' we would have a truer representation of the actual runners for our form study?

At Chepstow, heavy ground that that would have been that way for days. Why are trainers declaring them, knowing this, and then waiting til the day of racing to scratch them? 8 Nr's on account of 'going'.

Something, clearly, is not working.

 

[LUKE]

The whole NH season has been hollowed out for a Cheltenham which has failed to meet expectations.The Saturday before Cheltenham is Imperial Cup day -when I started watching racing in the early 80's there was a Good televised by the BBC jumps card at Chepstow which had a Good novice hurdle and often had runners over from Ireland trying to cover the festival expenses.Jockeys would often ride in the early races at Chepstow and then drive like lunatics to arrive in Sandown for the big hurdle.
In the 80's the Imperial Cup was preceded by at least one military race -possibly two.These races are terrible to bet on but they can be amazing to watch.
In the early 90's the bonus for the Imperial Cup/Festival double created a lot of interest.
In 2024 the Chepstow meeting is long gone,the Imperial Cup bonus is gone and the military races are gone.The Lincoln trial at Wolverhampton is the second most important meeting of the day and Sandown is a pale shadow of what it was.

 

[LUKE]

I could go through nearly every week of the NH season and point out how it is significantly worse than it was 30 years ago.The Hennessey and Schweppes cards have deteriorated massively.Haydock used to have two top class midweek races where Gold Cup winners would regularly clash.Ascot had 2 or 3 excellent Wednesday fixtures which were covered by the BBC.The best Wincanton card of the year was the Jim Ford and Kingwell Hurdle which was a Thursday fixture has now been moved to Saturday with the Jim Ford having disappeared from the calendar and the Kingwell completely irrelevant to the Champion Hurdle.
Is there any top class jump racing midweek away from the big festivals.

 

[edgt]

Haldon Gold Cup day at Devon comes to mind Luke but you are spot on in your assessment.