They're statistical ratings so you won't like them Slim. :lol:
Noted in running
- Thread starter barjon
- Start date
They're statistical ratings so you won't like them Slim. :lol:
I use Rating The Races myself. No harm in seeing what the maths says.
Interesting stuff.
E.g. For the "Going Suitability Rating" I took the approach I use to determine whether I think a horse can perform on the going via it's previous runs and converted that to a computer algorithm which spits out a number at the end. This means I can assess every horse running in each race in UK/IRE each day and do so consistently and quickly compare one against another in a race.
If blindly backing any that were stand alone top rated for that rating it would result, over 20 yrs of data, a strike of 25% and an roi -15%. For comparison to do so with the OR would result in a strike of 22% and roi -16%.
Hence you don't use these things in isolation.
I like to look at trends on big races as well but I know you love them......
Last edited:
I think ratings can get you a very long way but you need nuance to make them pay. A good judge should be beating any ratings ROI.
Indeed what I quoted were very broad overall averages, how ratings, those included, perform in certain circumstances/types of races etc can vary dramatically.
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,881
THOR DE CERISY
Leicester 13 January 221
Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle
1m7½f, Class 3, £5,913.18
Going: Heavy
The first two had been prominent throughout the latter half, but Thor de Cerisy only appeared on the scene approaching the second last. He was still two lengths down over the last, but put the pedal down and was closing rapidly with the first two running along the rail with plenty of space. Unfortunately the second started hanging left and leaning into the eventual winner forcing him closer to the rail and shutting the door for Thor de Cerisy who had to make a very sharp jink into open space. He keep closing, but went down by a head and a neck.
The stewards had this to say: “Inside the final furlong, THOR DE CERISY (FR), placed third, was forced to switch right-handed for clear running when both SAN SEB (GER), placed second, and the winner WHEN YOU’RE READY (IRE), shifted left-handed when clear of him on to the rail, but after viewing a recording of the incident, it was found that no riding offence was involved and that it had not improved the placing of SAN SEB (GER) or WHEN YOU’RE READY (IRE)”
They may be right, but I think Thor de Cerisy was an unlucky loser.
Leicester 13 January 221
Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle
1m7½f, Class 3, £5,913.18
Going: Heavy
The first two had been prominent throughout the latter half, but Thor de Cerisy only appeared on the scene approaching the second last. He was still two lengths down over the last, but put the pedal down and was closing rapidly with the first two running along the rail with plenty of space. Unfortunately the second started hanging left and leaning into the eventual winner forcing him closer to the rail and shutting the door for Thor de Cerisy who had to make a very sharp jink into open space. He keep closing, but went down by a head and a neck.
The stewards had this to say: “Inside the final furlong, THOR DE CERISY (FR), placed third, was forced to switch right-handed for clear running when both SAN SEB (GER), placed second, and the winner WHEN YOU’RE READY (IRE), shifted left-handed when clear of him on to the rail, but after viewing a recording of the incident, it was found that no riding offence was involved and that it had not improved the placing of SAN SEB (GER) or WHEN YOU’RE READY (IRE)”
They may be right, but I think Thor de Cerisy was an unlucky loser.
Last edited:
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,881
Upl Ivilnoble and Won 9/4 Fawsley Spirit
Well someone's had more on than the cheeky pony I put on yesterday as a speculative bet at 8/11 cos the isp ended up at 2/7 but at least it won!
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,881
TIMELESS BEAUTY
Ayr 19 January 2021
Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Mares' Handicap Hurdle (Northern Lights Mares' Hurdle Series Qual')
2m5½f, Class 5, £2,794.14
Going: Heavy
Warren Greatrex sent her all the way to Ayr for her first handicap run in a tin-pot little race where the winner’s prize wouldn’t go far towards the £100,000 she cost. Not much of a surprise, then, that she outclassed the field and won with ease. Unless the handicapper goes barmy I think there should be more to come at this level - maybe even before he gets his chance if she eats up well!
Ayr 19 January 2021
Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Mares' Handicap Hurdle (Northern Lights Mares' Hurdle Series Qual')
2m5½f, Class 5, £2,794.14
Going: Heavy
Warren Greatrex sent her all the way to Ayr for her first handicap run in a tin-pot little race where the winner’s prize wouldn’t go far towards the £100,000 she cost. Not much of a surprise, then, that she outclassed the field and won with ease. Unless the handicapper goes barmy I think there should be more to come at this level - maybe even before he gets his chance if she eats up well!
Last edited:
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,881
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,881
Post #202 Heross Du Seuil runs tomorrow 1:10 Ludlow - early price 1/1- non-runner
Post #171 Faustinovick runs tomorrow 2:10 Ludlow - early price 11/4 - 2nd 11/4
Post #193 Another Venture runs tomorrow 3:50 Wincanton - early price 15/2 - fell
Post #171 Faustinovick runs tomorrow 2:10 Ludlow - early price 11/4 - 2nd 11/4
Post #193 Another Venture runs tomorrow 3:50 Wincanton - early price 15/2 - fell
Last edited:
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,881
Post #112 If The Cap Fits runs tomorrow 2:10 Taunton - early price 11/4. Has disappointed twice since post.
Post #137 Espoir de Guye runs tomorrow 3:00 Ascot - early price 13/2. Has disappointed once since post.
Post #143 Sam Barton runs tomorrow 12:30 Taunton - early price 5/1. Non-runner
Post #94 IK Brunel runs tomorrow 1:50 Ascot - early price 20/1. Has disappointed twice since post.
Post #195 Allart runs tomorrow 12:55 Haydock - early price 8/13
Post #137 Espoir de Guye runs tomorrow 3:00 Ascot - early price 13/2. Has disappointed once since post.
Post #143 Sam Barton runs tomorrow 12:30 Taunton - early price 5/1. Non-runner
Post #94 IK Brunel runs tomorrow 1:50 Ascot - early price 20/1. Has disappointed twice since post.
Post #195 Allart runs tomorrow 12:55 Haydock - early price 8/13
Last edited:
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,881
Last edited:
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,881
I wasn’t particularly surprised by the performance of the first three, but I was terribly disappointed to see Allart fall. He had been jumping competently prior to tipping over and I hope it’s not dented him or his confidence too much. Mind you, I fully expect to recover my losings (considerable) on him in the future and I won’t be at all surprised to see him develop into one of the top chasers around.
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,881
Won 3/1
Beef or Salmon
Rookie
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2013
- Messages
- 1,053
Thank you sir, got the winning bet notification from B365 and couldn't remember why I had backed it!
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,881
SPECIAL ACCEPTANCE
Doncaster 30 January 2021
Sky Bet Money Back As Cash Handicap Chase (Northern Lights Staying Chase Series Qualifier)
3m, Class 4, £4,288.68
Special Acceptance was jumped into by the winner over the third last and again at the second last losing nearly a length to the winner each time. Switched left to avoid the same at the last then switched right on the run-in he rallied towards the finish going down by half a length with the rest fifteen lengths away. The interference may have made the difference, although the stewards didn’t think so.
An enquiry was held to consider the placings in this race after interference at both the third last and second last fence, when the winner THE LATE LEGEND, ridden by Sean Bowen, interfered with SPECIAL ACCEPTANCE, placed second, ridden by Tom O’Brien. After taking into account where both incidents occurred, the material extent of the interference suffered and the official margin of ½ a length, the Stewards considered that the interference had not improved THE LATE LEGEND’s placing and ordered the placings to remain unaltered. The interference was found to be accidental in that at the third last fence, THE LATE LEGEND jumped slightly right-handed giving a slight bump to SPECIAL ACCEPTANCE and jumped right-handed again at the second-last fence carrying the gelding marginally off its intended line, despite the rider’s best efforts to correct THE LATE LEGEND on both occasions.
Worth keeping in mind for his next race at a similarly level.
Doncaster 30 January 2021
Sky Bet Money Back As Cash Handicap Chase (Northern Lights Staying Chase Series Qualifier)
3m, Class 4, £4,288.68
Special Acceptance was jumped into by the winner over the third last and again at the second last losing nearly a length to the winner each time. Switched left to avoid the same at the last then switched right on the run-in he rallied towards the finish going down by half a length with the rest fifteen lengths away. The interference may have made the difference, although the stewards didn’t think so.
An enquiry was held to consider the placings in this race after interference at both the third last and second last fence, when the winner THE LATE LEGEND, ridden by Sean Bowen, interfered with SPECIAL ACCEPTANCE, placed second, ridden by Tom O’Brien. After taking into account where both incidents occurred, the material extent of the interference suffered and the official margin of ½ a length, the Stewards considered that the interference had not improved THE LATE LEGEND’s placing and ordered the placings to remain unaltered. The interference was found to be accidental in that at the third last fence, THE LATE LEGEND jumped slightly right-handed giving a slight bump to SPECIAL ACCEPTANCE and jumped right-handed again at the second-last fence carrying the gelding marginally off its intended line, despite the rider’s best efforts to correct THE LATE LEGEND on both occasions.
Worth keeping in mind for his next race at a similarly level.
Last edited:
NAAS today. Aarons Day was left at the start then bumped towards the end of the race: still came second but it obviously won’t have gone unnoticed. Thermistocles and My Mind Reader both ran good races at big prices albeit not troubling the winners. I was on My Mind Reader but he annoyingly came 4th. Will watch out for him when he goes handicapping.