Novice Chasers 2011-12

[links781]

Don't know what to make of McCain not getting another run into peddlers before the festival.personally I would want to give him another run,confidence booster and all.Granted it goes well fresh but it's not how McCain usually rolls.

 

[Tanlic]

It might be worth remembering that Lambro was dropping back in trip yesterday, whereas his trainer had indicated he needed a step up after his previous run. All that glitters isn't necessarily gold.

I was actually in a hurry yesterday as my best friend's had a stroke and was heading to the hospital to visit him and in my haste to grab a price I somehow got my wirescross and thought it was the other way round, so ended up backing the wrong one.

I had watched there previous meeting over hurdles and yesterdays winner was cantering while Lambro was flat to the board but when he got going shot past him like he was a tree. Uh Huh! I thought he's non stayer and cant possibly win Duh!!!..........I got back home and settled down to watch the race I reaslised my mistake and

Very valid point Reet and duly noted

 

[krizon]

Very best wishes for your friend, Tanlic. Bummer.

 

[Tanlic]

Don't know what to make of McCain not getting another run into peddlers before the festival.personally I would want to give him another run,confidence booster and all.Granted it goes well fresh but it's not how McCain usually rolls.

I would think it's down to the time span it will take for his pulled muscles to heal properly and for them to get him back into serious work. He's probably spending most of his time in the pool if they have one or doing a Rummy in the sea.

I'd certainly not be backing him before the day as muscles that go into spasm can take 6 or 8 weeks to come right.

I of course have no idea how bad he was hurt but they took a long time to realise there was a problem or make it public at least. There's no guarantee he even felt it in the race.

In my own experience when I used to fight in MA comps is you may feel nothing when you slighly pull a muscle but 15 minutes later it hurts like hell. If it's a bad pull it will stop you in your tracks for the whole world to see but they never found out until he was tested days later if they are being truthful.

I would assume from that it was very minor and I wouldn't be hanging my faith in him doing much better against Sprinter Sacre at Cheltenham than he did at Kempton.

 

[On The Bridle]

It might be worth remembering that Lambro was dropping back in trip yesterday, whereas his trainer had indicated he needed a step up after his previous run. All that glitters isn't necessarily gold.

The connections of the winner also expressed that they will be stepping up next time too. I have always liked Lambro and his jumping yesterday kept him in touch. He looks like three miles plus could be his trip.... off 143 yesterday and with the way he jumps, he could very well be a Irish National horse. Flemenstar is very useful in his own right but you would think that 2m 4f maybe his ideal trip. A very nice prospect but neither are probable Cheltenham horses but have decent prospects in other valuable graded races. You could make a case for Flemenstar to be put in somewhere around the 150 mark.

 

[Zenyatta]

Don't know what to make of McCain not getting another run into peddlers before the festival.personally I would want to give him another run,confidence booster and all.Granted it goes well fresh but it's not how McCain usually rolls.

Not ideal in my view either. Like you, I'd like to see a confidence booster beforehand but the priority must be getting there on the day. McCain knows him well so I'm sure he can deliver him to the Festival in peak form again.

The Arkle - For anybody interested.

 

[On The Bridle]

Not ideal in my view either. Like you, I'd like to see a confidence booster beforehand but the priority must be getting there on the day. McCain knows him well so I'm sure he can deliver him to the Festival in peak form again.

The Arkle - For anybody interested.

Is that your article Zenyatta? Very impressive.
I think Henderson's horses can actually almost run above themselves at Kempton. His record there is phenomenal, especially at the Christmas meeting. I was firmly in the Peddlers camp with a small saver on SS. I wish it was the other way around now ALMOST.
Any stats on the Wayward Lad winners record in the Arkle?

 

[Euronymous]

Binocular and Long Run didn't run above themselves. I think Tanlic is a tad OTT on Sprinter Sacre there, but I have well over a ton on him at the moment and I ain't thinking of covering, I'm thinking of getting just as much on that doesn't involve me having a coronary before the race.

 

[On The Bridle]

Binocular and Long Run didn't run above themselves. I think Tanlic is a tad OTT on Sprinter Sacre there, but I have well over a ton on him at the moment and I ain't thinking of covering, I'm thinking of getting just as much on that doesn't involve me having a coronary before the race.

 

[Aragorn]

Fair point made by Zenyatta on Sprinter Sacre but Network is proving to be a sire that imparts two things; one, the ability to jump a fence and two, the ability to stay. I don't think the Cheltenham hill will provide a problem this year (and I was firmly in the Peddlers camp........)...

 

[Zenyatta]

All the work of my good self of that I can assure you. It is far more entertaining than the dreaded dissertation that I am supposed to be doing. I'm hoping if I do loads of Festival previews whilst I'm at home I might be bored of them by the time I return to Uni and be willing to get on with some work. It is rather badly needed.

So, just for good measure, I had a thorough look at how I though the contenders rated . . . ! - Post

There are a few other previews so feel free to browse.

 

[Euronymous]

Nice preview Zen. But with respect, just looking at the last five Arkle's isn't enough of a sample size. My Way De Solzen and Tidal Bay were below average winners who triumphed because of poor fields or a few of their better rivals coming a cropper. Well Chief had no form beyond two miles either.

 

[EC1]

All the work of my good self of that I can assure you. It is far more entertaining than the dreaded dissertation that I am supposed to be doing. I'm hoping if I do loads of Festival previews whilst I'm at home I might be bored of them by the time I return to Uni and be willing to get on with some work. It is rather badly needed.

So, just for good measure, I had a thorough look at how I though the contenders rated . . . ! - Post

There are a few other previews so feel free to browse.

nice stuff Zenyatta

i don't know why..but i also thought WC had form at 2.5 miles..i thought he had won a handicap at that trip..but must be thinking about another horse

 

[SteveM]

All the work of my good self of that I can assure you. It is far more entertaining than the dreaded dissertation that I am supposed to be doing. I'm hoping if I do loads of Festival previews whilst I'm at home I might be bored of them by the time I return to Uni and be willing to get on with some work. It is rather badly needed.

So, just for good measure, I had a thorough look at how I though the contenders rated . . . ! - Post

There are a few other previews so feel free to browse.

QUOTE: “At this stage I would conclude that Peddlers Cross wins by 5 lengths (170) from a tiring Sprinter Sacre (165) and a fast finishing Al Ferof (164)”.

Hi Zen,

Thanks for this. But with respect this doesn’t really represent analysis but more of a wish fulfillment of what you want to see (in fairness I think you recognise this yourself).

This would represent a 21 length turnaround with SS on their latest start and doesn’t account for the fact that if SS had been called on for an effort the level of superiority would have been greater. It is unwise to base ratings on novices with so little exposure as these rating will bear little relationship to their respective marks following the Arkle. On all available evidence so far SS has a clear advantage.

 

[Zenyatta]

Tidal Bay were below average winners who triumphed because of poor fields or a few of their better rivals coming a cropper.

Tidal bay is the best winner of the last 10 years on 166.

 

[Zenyatta]

QUOTE: “At this stage I would conclude that Peddlers Cross wins by 5 lengths (170) from a tiring Sprinter Sacre (165) and a fast finishing Al Ferof (164)”.

Hi Zen,

Thanks for this. But with respect this doesn’t really represent analysis but more of a wish fulfillment of what you want to see (in fairness I think you recognise this yourself).

This would represent a 21 length turnaround with SS on their latest start and doesn’t account for the fact that if SS had been called on for an effort the level of superiority would have been greater. It is unwise to base ratings on novices with so little exposure as these rating will bear little relationship to their respective marks following the Arkle. On all available evidence so far SS has a clear advantage.

The point you highlight is undoubtedly my opinion about what I think will happen. The analysis of the form to arrive at the ratings has as little opinion as is possible. Inevitably you must use your own discretion on occasions.

We must base ratings on something or else we are left with vague opinions. I'm sure Sprinter Sacre had more in the tank but as I pointed out Peddlers Cross was eased too so I think the distance was a fair reflection of SS's superiority on the day. It is also worth bearing in mind that he might find not very much off the bridle given that he is a keen sort.

I agree SS has a 'clear advantage' as you put it, about 5lbs by my reckoning. However the Cheltenham hill will give the others every opportunity to make that up.

I realise I am fighting an uphill battle on this forum but I think it important to point out that the Arkle is not the forgone conclusion that many on here believe.

 

[Hamm]

Can you explain to me how you have rated Sprinter Sacre only 5 pounds ahead of Peddlers Cross?

 

[Zenyatta]

Can you explain to me how you have rated Sprinter Sacre only 5 pounds ahead of Peddlers Cross?

Because I think it is fair to say that Peddlers Cross was below par at Kempton. He made a mistake at the first and was then never travelling thereafter. His trainer Donald McCain has since come out and reported that a few issues have come to light to explain his performance.

I have him running to 150 at Kempton. That is a guess, it is my opinion. Sprinter Sacre's 16 length defeat puts him on 165.

However, as I say in the post, the Wayward Lad is impossible to rate.

If you take the view that Peddlers Cross ran to form then that puts Sprinter Sacre up to 175 unextended which seems a bit excessive. You therefore have to take the view that Peddlers Cross was below par. By how much is down to your judgement. My own thinking was that he was about 10lbs below is Bangor form. I might be wrong. That leaves Sprinter Sacre on 165 which I think is about right.

Out of interest what would you give him?

 

[SteveM]

The point you highlight is undoubtedly my opinion about what I think will happen. The analysis of the form to arrive at the ratings has as little opinion as is possible. Inevitably you must use your own discretion on occasions.

We must base ratings on something or else we are left with vague opinions. I'm sure Sprinter Sacre had more in the tank but as I pointed out Peddlers Cross was eased too so I think the distance was a fair reflection of SS's superiority on the day. It is also worth bearing in mind that he might find not very much off the bridle given that he is a keen sort.

I agree SS has a 'clear advantage' as you put it, about 5lbs by my reckoning. However the Cheltenham hill will give the others every opportunity to make that up.

I realise I am fighting an uphill battle on this forum but I think it important to point out that the Arkle is not the forgone conclusion that many on here believe.

No competitive novice race is a forgone conclusion Zen, but I do not understand on what basis you can make Peddlers the winner on ratings that will bear little resemblance to respective ability.

 

[SteveM]

Because I think it is fair to say that Peddlers Cross was below par at Kempton.

This goes without saying. But from that to argue he will turn round a 16 length beating and more find 5lb superiority over SS is hopeful at best and fanciful at worst... not analysis.

 

[Zenyatta]

This goes without saying. But from that to argue he will turn round a 16 length beating and more find 5lb superiority over SS is hopeful at best and fanciful at worst... not analysis.

That is not analysis, I understand that! The final suggestion is my opinion. The derivation of the unadjusted ratings is achieved through the analysis of the formbook, nothing more.

I do not think it is fanciful at all to suggest that Peddlers Cross can find 5 lengths on his best form up the Cheltenham hill, and Sprinter Sacre can lose 5 lengths. After all Peddlers Cross has always shown his best form at the track and Sprinter Sacre lost at least 10 lengths on Al Ferof from the second last in the Supreme.

 

[Hamm]

Because I think it is fair to say that Peddlers Cross was below par at Kempton. He made a mistake at the first and was then never travelling thereafter. His trainer Donald McCain has since come out and reported that a few issues have come to light to explain his performance.

I have him running to 150 at Kempton. That is a guess, it is my opinion. Sprinter Sacre's 16 length defeat puts him on 165.

However, as I say in the post, the Wayward Lad is impossible to rate.

If you take the view that Peddlers Cross ran to form then that puts Sprinter Sacre up to 175 unextended which seems a bit excessive. You therefore have to take the view that Peddlers Cross was below par. By how much is down to your judgement. My own thinking was that he was about 10lbs below is Bangor form. I might be wrong. That leaves Sprinter Sacre on 165 which I think is about right.

Out of interest what would you give him?

Incorrect; McCain said there was nothing physically wrong with the horse at Kempton. He hoped an excuse would materialise but none had.

There is no way Peddlers' Bangor run was only 5 pounds lower than Sprinter Sacre at Kempton - we are talking about a nothing event versus one of the most exciting novice chase performances any of us have seen.

 

[SteveM]

That is not analysis, I understand that! The final suggestion is my opinion. The derivation of the unadjusted ratings is achieved through the analysis of the formbook, nothing more.

I do not think it is fanciful at all to suggest that Peddlers Cross can find 5 lengths on his best form up the Cheltenham hill, and Sprinter Sacre can lose 5 lengths. After all Peddlers Cross has always shown his best form at the track and Sprinter Sacre lost at least 10 lengths on Al Ferof from the second last in the Supreme.

You clearly have a view, but it seems to me that you are taking ratings that have little meaning to support a case for your gut feeling. There is nothing wrong with gut feeling, but to dress it up in this way is misrepresentation... apologies if this is coming across as harsh. I would encourage you to take a view, but let's not delude ourselves. A handful of novices hold chances in the Arkle and Peddlers is one of them but to suggest he will win in this way is a real stretch. What I believe you are saying is that you hope he will win in this way. But again I would question the basis.

 

[EC1]

Winning the Wayward Lad race isn't really a good pointer to winning at Cheltenham though..since 1988 only Remittance Man went on to Arkle victory..so is SS another Remittance Man

 

[Zenyatta]

SteveM, you seem to be suggesting that I somehow have an agenda to desperately try to prove Peddlers Cross will win the Arkle. I don't. I have looked at the evidence and think he will. I appreciate the ratings are open to criticism but I have tried to do them as objectively as possible. I am not trying to prove any particular case, I am trying to find out whether I am right or wrong.

Sprinter Sacre undoubtedly has the best chase form in the book. However, during his career he has encountered a stiff track or a test of stamina on four occasions. The first was over 2m in a bumper at Ascot (a stiff track) where he won by a nose. The second was over 2m4f in a novice hurdle back at Ascot when he was beaten by Frascati Park (consistently rated around the 130 mark over hurdles). The third was when he won a 2m novice hurdle at Ascot beating Polisky very easily (who is still a maiden rated 134). The final time was in the Supreme when he looked all over the winner before tiring up the hill. He lost a good 10 lengths on Al Ferof from the second last to the line.

If they are the credentials of an Arkle winner, a race that has been proven to test stamina as well as speed, then lump on at 5/2.

Peddlers Cross recorded a mark of 160 at Bangor, a performance which is reflective of that mark and is grossly underrated by many. It might have been at Bangor but with Minella Class in opposition nobody can describe the opposition as 'nothing'. He jumped very well and won in a really fast time from a very good horse giving him 10lbs. For some reason, because it wasn't at one of the big name tracks it is overlooked and assumed to be poor form. I couldn't disagree more.

Yes, Minella Class has not yet won a chase, however he was running very well at Newbury next time ('pressing winner and travelling well' according to RP comments in running) when he was unlucky to unseat. It was too far out to judge how he would have fared.

I absolutely think that Sprinter Sacre is the best 2m chaser in the Arkle field but, as we saw with Finian's Rainbow last year, that is not necessarily enough to ensure victory. I currently have about 5lbs between the pair and think that is a bridgeable gap. Sprinter Sacre might be too good but he might not and at the prices I would far rather side with Peddlers Cross.

Is nobody willing to offer an alternative rating for Sprinter Sacre? I would be interested to hear some other arguments (genuinely, to see how people are thinking).