Novice Chasers 2011-12

Zenyatta said:
As would I, but given the fact that he has been entered in an open Grade 1 the possibility must be considered.
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It may be a possibility, but such a remote one it's not worth worrying about. See DJ's response and my response to Hamm. The bookmakers, as far as I can see are not quoting Al Ferof (although the machine I'm using is blocked for most of what I want to get to) for the Champion Chase (although they are quoting the likes of Kauto Stone). They're not quoting AF because he won't take part.
 
SteveM said:
They're not quoting AF because he won't take part.
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Whilst I don't believe Al Ferof can beat Finian's Rainbow (I'd be closer to 6/4 and 7/2 myself), it isn't unreasonable to think he might be introduced to the QM betting, were he to win, or run really well in, the Chandler. Nicholls doesn't exactly have a genuine candidate horse for the Champion Chase, and a decent outing against FR would bring him within a few lbs of what might be needed to win a QM.

Of course, a decent outing in the Chandler would also enhance his Arkle claims, so a switch would seem unlikely either way - though it's possibly not for discounting entirely.
 
Irish Arkle would be the most sensible race to target Al Ferof at, but possibility of testing ground could tempt connections not to ask him to risk pulling his guts out on his final prep for Cheltenham.
 
Grasshopper said:
Whilst I don't believe Al Ferof can beat Finian's Rainbow (I'd be closer to 6/4 and 7/2 myself), it isn't unreasonable to think he might be introduced to the QM betting, were he to win, or run really well in, the Chandler.
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Not unreasonable that he could be introduced to QM betting, but a remote chance of lining up imo.

Although he seems to be favoured above Kauto Stone for the VC I also wouldn't be too surprised if he didn't run in this, depending how the race cuts up.

The market has no doubt quickly readjusted to make FR the favourite on realisation of this.
 
2 FB
5/2 Al Ferof
5 Somersby
6 Kauto Stone
7 Guavain
8 Wishfull Thinking
10 Forpady

I've backed WT each way. The race will cut up and he ran well at Kempton. The mistake he made in the race wasn't as serious as Finian's but wouldn't have helped. It was also this time of year last season that his form started it's upward curve.
 
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Sponsors were going 9/4 Finian's last night, Paddy Power only 7/4. Managed to secure 2/1 with Coral.
 
Euronymous said:
2 FB
5/2 Al Ferof
5 Somersby
6 Kauto Stone
7 Guavain
8 Wishfull Thinking
10 Forpady

I've backed WT each way. The race will cut up and he ran well at Kempton. The mistake he made in the race wasn't as serious as Finian's but wouldn't have helped. It was also this time of year last season that his form started it's upward curve.
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WT would probably be my second choice after Finian's.
 
.......but very often we get skewness or kurtosis in the fact that neive trainers are making races run over two miles fall into the hands of 2m4 sorts at by ensuring this phantom idea.........
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What drugs exactly are you on?

Why can't you just post in normal English without making up words or using random irrelevant technical words?

Skewness or kurtosis? Perhaps you could explain how racing relates to this:


Kurtosis is the degree of peakedness of a distribution, defined as a normalized form of the fourth central moment of a distribution. There are several flavors of kurtosis commonly encountered, including the kurtosis proper, denoted (Abramowitz and Stegun 1972, p. 928) or (Kenney and Keeping 1951, p. 27; Kenney and Keeping 1961, pp. 99-102) and defined by
NumberedEquation1.gif


(1)
where denotes the th central moment (and in particular, is the variance). This form is implemented in Mathematica as Kurtosis[dist].

The kurtosis "excess" (Kenney and Keeping 1951, p. 27) is denoted (Abramowitz and Stegun 1972, p. 928) or , is defined by

NumberedEquation2.gif

(2)
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No telling how much more Sprinter had up his sleeve had he needed it though. He was hardly asked to race to his extent.
 
I'd like Bruce to manage to spell basic words, never mind befuddling himself with pretentious and irrelevant phrasing. Nieve and neive being two of his hapless variations - meaning naive, except that in the masculine, it's naif. I thank you.
 
I would explain CJ, but sorry my posts are awaiting moderation which is frustrating.
 
Flemenstar again showed he is a decent novice today jumping well and battling well to beat the very useful Lambro with miles back to the third horse. I like this horse a lot although he may never eat at the top table he isn't too far off it.
 
Funny thing about the Arkle the prize money isn't great but owners love to win it. No one remebers Jewson winners but win an Arkle and you become immortal, at least your horse does.

There's a great opportinity for someone to give it a miss and the Jewson could be theirs for the taking.

As far as Al ferof is concerend surely the QMCC would be is best option expecially if he can beat Finians Rainbow.? He's got as much change of beating Sizing Europe than he has of getting a within a hundred yards of Sprinter Sacre and the place money for the former is 20k more than it is for the Arkle. I suppose it's all in the works already and we have to wait and see but PN doesn't care too much what the stats says he writes his own and nothing he does would surprise me
 
On The Bridle said:
Flemenstar again showed he is a decent novice today jumping well and battling well to beat the very useful Lambro with miles back to the third horse. I like this horse a lot although he may never eat at the top table he isn't too far off it.
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I agree with you. I actually backed Lambro and thought at one point he was going to win but Flemenstar always had his measure. They looked more than decent and well cpabale of showing up well should they come to Chelteham. The big question must be is just how good is this Bog Warrior? Can't believe his trainer is talkiing Arkle coming too soon though. Would have thought he would have gone for the Jewson if he was ready as he looks like a top class 3 miler in the making.

Get's more confusing every day.
 
It might be worth remembering that Lambro was dropping back in trip yesterday, whereas his trainer had indicated he needed a step up after his previous run. All that glitters isn't necessarily gold.
 
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