Novice Chasers 2017/2018

Pretty-much had to.......there isn't a race for him over smaller obstacles, apart from the Aintree Hurdle.
 
Certainly got the size and he's a very well balanced horse. At around 17/1 surely he's got to be a bet for the Arkle.

I would imagine if he comes out early the minute he jumps a fence he'll be 6/1 favourite or thereabouts
 
Tanlic said:
I would imagine if he comes out early the minute he jumps a fence he'll be 6/1 favourite or thereabouts
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Yeah? And how well did being fav his last two Festival races work out?

How many failed Champion Hurdle prospects turned out any good over fences? I can only think of Sizing Europe and he always skied his hurdles. Yanworth is another Identity Thief in the making. In fact he has even worse claims than that horse did given who trains him.
 
Sizing Europe was not a failed Champion Hurdle prospect, he was on the point of winning it in Katchit's year (2008) when he broke down.
 
Yanworth has no chance in an Arkle, and I doubt connections would be foolish enough to campaign him over the minimum. He has never, ever been a 2-miler (scrambling home in hopelessly poorly-contested G1s at the trip, doesn't count), and it's clear from Aintree - and long before - that he needs a test.

More Of That rather than Identity Thief, is the template for this one, I reckon.

PS. Horse I want to back for the Arkle isn't quoted anywhere. Asking BF to add him to exchange.
 
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Much prefer them as novice-chasers, than second-season hurdlers, PJ........Defi being an exception of course.

It's a physique thing with me. Just reckon he is built like a chaser, and will be seen to best-effect when sent over fences. He gives his running every time, and wasn't too far away from the top-level, as a juvenile hurdler.

Hopefully I will get the big price you're predicting.
 
All Mega Fortune's runs have been at around the minimum trip, so not entirely convinced he is a stayer........more one that will want a true test at 2m. Referring back to physique, I just don't think he was whippet-like enough to beat the very-best at 2m over hurdles - fences will hopefully see him in a much better light.

We'll see.
 
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I heard someone comparing Finian's Oscar to Denman and it got me thinking

If twitter had to be around when Denman was a novice, how much hype he would have had

I am very excited about FO, but do feel a lot of his hype is down to a trainers comment at an open day
 
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To be fair, there was plenty of enthusiasm for Denman, when he progressed into novice-chase ranks.....just not on Twitter. He was all-over shitty old platforms like Racing Forums, back in the day. :lol:

I can see why the comparisons are being made, based on their respective novice-hurdle seasons, as they've probably achieved roughly the same sort of level, but The Tank leaves big hoof-prints for any horse to fill. I'm not entirely certain that FO is up to it, but equally, I do have high-hopes for him as a novice chaser. Talk of the Arkle for the horse is, frankly, insane, imho - he will want the JLT trip as a minimum, and likely the RSA will prove the perfect race for him this season, as I think he is all about galloping. He would get murdered for a turn-of-foot over the Arkle trip, I reckon - especially on Good ground.

Edit: Denman was rated 155 by Chasers & Hurdlers in his novice hurdle season. I expect FO will be rated within a handful of lbs of that, when the book is published next month.
 
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granger said:
How good could poor Nicanor have been
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C&H that year rated him h157p. Describing him as good-topped, they reckoned the seven horses who followed him home in the RSA Hurdle, looked likely to make better chasers than hurdlers, and that a drop back in trip (with Arkle as a target) would not see him to any disadvantage. Nicanor eventually re-appeared in 2009, after 3 years off the track, over 2m2f in Gowran, where he ran with some credit in defeat. He was winless in a subsequent further 15 outings. Definitely a case of what might have been.

For the record, the horses who followed Nicanor home in that RSA Hurdle are detailed below, with their C&H novice-chase rating from the following season, also shown:

Denman (c161p)
Refinement (stayed over hurdles)
Mr Nosie (didn't race)
Mr Pointment (c140)
Rimsky (didn't race)
Glasker Mill (c117)
Letterman (c120)

With hindsight, it's little wonder the first two finished well clear.
 
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I'm sworn off festival ante post on novices until NRNB (with one exception), but if I was having one bet it would be FO for the JLT

Re Denman, surely Harry hyped him enough on his own without a need for Twitter
 
Grasshopper said:
Oscar gets good horses across all trips, Perp, so the middle-ground might be the sweet-spot.
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Sizing John ran in the Arkle when the JLT looked the more sensible option
Fox Norton ran in the QM when the Ryanair looked more winnable.

The owner does not **** with intermediate races - FO looks more likely to run in the Arkle.
 
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