And in turn if there's not much between PP and Monalee, then there's nothing between Percy, Invitation Only, Al Boum photo and Dounikos with all 4 finishing within 1.5 lengths of each other. And over the longer trip one of the ones in behind Monalee could improve more for the step up.I fundamentally disagree with the assertion that a chaser who wins a Grade 1 restricted to novices, is automatically superior to a novice who is second in an open Grade 2.
I do agree with you on Monalee though - he has an excellent chance in the RSA. I just don't think there is very-much at all between the pair.
Let's also not forget Monalee was outstayed over 3m on good ground at both Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals last season.
As suggested by Granger and Euro, Monalee has gears and he can race keenly. I'm not sure the JLT isn't the better option for him.
As much as I can admire both Percy and Monalee, I'm happy to take them both on in the RSA on a value basis. They're both too short imo.
And in turn if there's not much between PP and Monalee, then there's nothing between Percy, Invitation Only, Al Boum photo and Dounikos with all 4 finishing within 1.5 lengths of each other. And over the longer trip one of the ones in behind Monalee could improve more for the step up.
Let's also not forget Monalee was outstayed over 3m on good ground at both Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals last season.
As suggested by Granger and Euro, Monalee has gears and he can race keenly. I'm not sure the JLT isn't the better option for him.
As much as I can admire both Percy and Monalee, I'm happy to take them both on in the RSA on a value basis. They're both too short imo.
Taking the front pair on from a value perspective, is a different thing to taking them on because you don't think they're good enough though, DH.And in turn if there's not much between PP and Monalee, then there's nothing between Percy, Invitation Only, Al Boum photo and Dounikos with all 4 finishing within 1.5 lengths of each other. And over the longer trip one of the ones in behind Monalee could improve more for the step up.
Let's also not forget Monalee was outstayed over 3m on good ground at both Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals last season.
As suggested by Granger and Euro, Monalee has gears and he can race keenly. I'm not sure the JLT isn't the better option for him.
As much as I can admire both Percy and Monalee, I'm happy to take them both on in the RSA on a value basis. They're both too short imo.
Well I have black Corton ew in multiple at 25/1, so kind of yeah. I think BC is very solid each way. But depending on who lines up of Dounikos, Al Boum photo & Invitation only, I'd be looking to take my chances with one of them as a win bet on the day.The Albert Bartlett is a much sterner stamina test than the RSA.
As for taking PP and Monalee on, what the hell with? Black Corton Lol.
My thought coming out of the DFR was that Monalee had more gears and it was this speed that won him the race over 2m4. He picked up very swiftly after the last which i view as turn of foot. I think abp & Dounikos definitely more of stayers and over longer they'd have got to him.Taking the front pair on from a value perspective, is a different thing to taking them on because you don't think they're good enough though, DH.
I thought Monalee won the Flogas with something in hand, tbh. He made-all at a decent clip, and still beat all-comers as they came to him.
I don't have any stamina concerns with him at all. He was simply beaten by a very, very good horse in Penhill (who I'd probably back in the Stayers if he showed up), and he was beaten too far out at Punchestown, for it to have been a stamina issue (possibly just OTT for the season).
This is a fair point about Monalee returning after a bad fall. Dounikos and Invitation only had better preps coming off wins lto. But Al Boum photo was also running after falling lto, same as Monalee. So maybe he's the one to take out of it... He was definitely closing Monalee down and would have collared him in another 100 yards imo.I actually think Monalee got outpaced in that. If memory serves me right both the AB hurdle and the World Hurdle were slowly ran which allowed Penhill & Nichols Canyon to use their pace late on and outpace the stayers.
Also DH you could well argue Monalee will come on a lot for the run. Most of the ones behind him at Leopardstown all had runs over Xmas. Monalee took that horrific fall early in his Xmas race which had him feeling sorry for himself and sore after the kicking he got so to win last time shows his toughness off an interrupted prep.
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Black Corton has been on the go for too long -unlikely to complete the course in my opinion.
ABP fell at the last in that race, not with a mile to go. He'd run his race, and wouldn't have come on as much as Monalee would have.
Still think you're failing to account for Monalee making all. He was there to be shot at, and repelled all-comers, which basically means one of two things; either Monalee stays better than the opposition, or he was not only absolutely spot-on with the fractions, but every other other jockey in the race managed to fu*ck them up.
I know which of the two scenarios I think is more plausible, but each to their own.
Something I didn't necessarily acknowledge earlier is just how beautiful a jumper Monalee is.
Agree. Admirable record but what he’s achieved in small fields is a long way from what will be required in the RSA. Was on the way to defeat by the ill fated Fountains Windfall and previously by Sizing Tennessee when those rivals came down
It was actually Dounikos who jumped into a closing gap over the last fence. Monalee came across him.What’s for sure is that race will be one to follow i reckon. Monalee is the best novice out there at his fences and I side with Grassy on the reading of the race. It was a tremendous performance given the circumstances.
I also agree ABP and Dounikos would be the next to take out of the race. I seem to recall ABP jumped into a closing gap at either the last or second last which really halted his momentum. I think it’s Euro who’s been talking up his chances for some time and now I’m sold.
Where have you heard Dounikos is NH Chase bound DH? He looks the perfect type for that.
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The positives for BC insofar as the RSA is concerned, are that he is self-evidently very smart, he always runs his race, he has track form, he gets on well with his jockey, he jumps and stays, and appears to go on any ground. That ticks aof boxes, but I’d be a wee bit dissapointed, if there weren’t a couple better than him.
P1ssed off that Percy looks sure to go RSA route after I'd backed him at 33/1 win only for the NH chase while he was crossing the line having hosed up at Fairyhouse it dawned on me earlier that it was with 365 and having just checked they're offering me over 5 times my stake back as a cash out.
Haven't heard from Kelly for while - he's definitely going RSA route isn't he ? He's 40+ to lay on the machine so I wasn't expecting such a nice cash out
Cash your money!
Looking at the racing post it has the following OR's:I think that's about right.
As far as 'progressing' goes, his RPR this season are, from oldest to most recent:
136
141
148
153
152
157
161
161
162
162
This would suggest he's reaching his plateau for the season but 162 is a pretty sound level.
Recent RSA winners, pre-race OR ... post-race OR:
Might Bite 154 / 161
Blaklion 150 / 154
Don Poli 156 / 163
O'Faolains Boy 144 / 156
BC's current OR is 155 so he is right up there in historical terms.
Just sayin' innat...