Novice Chasers 2017/2018
- Thread starter Grasshopper
- Start date
Double Handful
At the Start
And in turn if there's not much between PP and Monalee, then there's nothing between Percy, Invitation Only, Al Boum photo and Dounikos with all 4 finishing within 1.5 lengths of each other. And over the longer trip one of the ones in behind Monalee could improve more for the step up.
Let's also not forget Monalee was outstayed over 3m on good ground at both Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals last season.
As suggested by Granger and Euro, Monalee has gears and he can race keenly. I'm not sure the JLT isn't the better option for him.
As much as I can admire both Percy and Monalee, I'm happy to take them both on in the RSA on a value basis. They're both too short imo.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The Albert Bartlett is a much sterner stamina test than the RSA.
As for taking PP and Monalee on, what the hell with? Black Corton Lol.
I actually think Monalee got outpaced in that. If memory serves me right both the AB hurdle and the World Hurdle were slowly ran which allowed Penhill & Nichols Canyon to use their pace late on and outpace the stayers.
Also DH you could well argue Monalee will come on a lot for the run. Most of the ones behind him at Leopardstown all had runs over Xmas. Monalee took that horrific fall early in his Xmas race which had him feeling sorry for himself and sore after the kicking he got so to win last time shows his toughness off an interrupted prep.
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Grasshopper
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Taking the front pair on from a value perspective, is a different thing to taking them on because you don't think they're good enough though, DH.
I thought Monalee won the Flogas with something in hand, tbh. He made-all at a decent clip, and still beat all-comers as they came to him.
I don't have any stamina concerns with him at all. He was simply beaten by a very, very good horse in Penhill (who I'd probably back in the Stayers if he showed up), and he was beaten too far out at Punchestown, for it to have been a stamina issue (possibly just OTT for the season).
Double Handful
At the Start
Well I have black Corton ew in multiple at 25/1, so kind of yeah. I think BC is very solid each way. But depending on who lines up of Dounikos, Al Boum photo & Invitation only, I'd be looking to take my chances with one of them as a win bet on the day.
Double Handful
At the Start
My thought coming out of the DFR was that Monalee had more gears and it was this speed that won him the race over 2m4. He picked up very swiftly after the last which i view as turn of foot. I think abp & Dounikos definitely more of stayers and over longer they'd have got to him.
Double Handful
At the Start
This is a fair point about Monalee returning after a bad fall. Dounikos and Invitation only had better preps coming off wins lto. But Al Boum photo was also running after falling lto, same as Monalee. So maybe he's the one to take out of it... He was definitely closing Monalee down and would have collared him in another 100 yards imo.
Grasshopper
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ABP fell at the last in that race, not with a mile to go. He'd run his race, and wouldn't have come on as much as Monalee would have.
Still think you're failing to account for Monalee making all. He was there to be shot at, and repelled all-comers, which basically means one of two things; either Monalee stays better than the opposition, or he was not only absolutely spot-on with the fractions, but every other other jockey in the race managed to fu*ck them up.
I know which of the two scenarios I think is more plausible, but each to their own.
Still think you're failing to account for Monalee making all. He was there to be shot at, and repelled all-comers, which basically means one of two things; either Monalee stays better than the opposition, or he was not only absolutely spot-on with the fractions, but every other other jockey in the race managed to fu*ck them up.
I know which of the two scenarios I think is more plausible, but each to their own.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I would be loath to dismiss Balck Corton's chances in the RSA.
On Saturday, from six out to the line he covered the distance two seconds - almost nine lengths - faster than Waiting Patiently. As I said elsewhere, I do think Waiting Patiently's field were slowing down but he got the least inefficient ride on the day and if they don't go flat out in the RSA Black Corton clearly has plenty of late pace.
On Saturday, from six out to the line he covered the distance two seconds - almost nine lengths - faster than Waiting Patiently. As I said elsewhere, I do think Waiting Patiently's field were slowing down but he got the least inefficient ride on the day and if they don't go flat out in the RSA Black Corton clearly has plenty of late pace.
Agree. Admirable record but what he’s achieved in small fields is a long way from what will be required in the RSA. Was on the way to defeat by the ill fated Fountains Windfall and previously by Sizing Tennessee when those rivals came down
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Double Handful
At the Start
ABP fell at the last in that race, not with a mile to go. He'd run his race, and wouldn't have come on as much as Monalee would have.
Still think you're failing to account for Monalee making all. He was there to be shot at, and repelled all-comers, which basically means one of two things; either Monalee stays better than the opposition, or he was not only absolutely spot-on with the fractions, but every other other jockey in the race managed to fu*ck them up.
I know which of the two scenarios I think is more plausible, but each to their own.
You're a tough nut to crack Mr. Grasshopper :lol:
In fairness, when you put it like you have here in terms of the fractions scenario, you make a fair and valid case. I suppose if I revert to why I started reviewing this RSA market, I started out looking for reasons to oppose Monalee (And Percy) thinking the prices were too short. I've watched the DRF race again tonight twice, once watching Monalee only and the other watching mainly Al Boum Photo & Dounikos.
Something I didn't necessarily acknowledge earlier is just how beautiful a jumper Monalee is. Truly majestic over his fences! And Fehily did indeed do a splendid job in setting the fractions, but it was his jumping at every fence that kept him one step ahead of the rest all the way. And in an RSA in particular, Jumping is the name of the game.
The one point I made earlier that bore true again in reviewing the race, was that after the 3rd last Fehily injected the pace and both Dounikos & ABP were the first of the leading 6 to be pushed along (Notably before Snow Falcon & Invitation only). So again that shows the pace/gears/turn of foot that Monalee possesses that I referred to earlier. As they got to the line it was the same 2 Dounikos & ABP that were closing the fastest - which I felt validated my view that these 2 were more the stayers and that over a longer trip on that day, both could have got to Monalee.
In summary, I'm not saying Monalee won't win the RSA. His jumping alone could be enough to win it for him. I also have to factor in that even though I viewed Monalee as getting outstayed last year, you rightly point out Penhill as a very good horse and on objective reflection, you'd have to consider that 2nd as a positive in that it's festival experience/form on good ground.
With Dounikos now looking NHC bound, 12/1 for Al Boum Photo versus 3/1 Monalee for a longer race, with a greater emphasis on Stamina, I think its still fair to make the case that Al Boum Photo represents good value as he was the one staying on the best in the Flogas - and he only finished a length behind. I can see some exotic forecasts and tricasts in my crystal ball
Grasshopper
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He jumps with alacrity, Shane. :lol:
To be fair, I'm not trying to put anyone off their fancies. I just think questioning Monalee's stamina might lead someone to draw the wrong conclusions from the Flogas, that's all. In my view, if it was all down to Monalee having pace that was absent in the others, he would have won a lot easier and a lot further. In my view, all he did was keep finding when asked.
TheBear
At the Start
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What’s for sure is that race will be one to follow i reckon. Monalee is the best novice out there at his fences and I side with Grassy on the reading of the race. It was a tremendous performance given the circumstances.
I also agree ABP and Dounikos would be the next to take out of the race. I seem to recall ABP jumped into a closing gap at either the last or second last which really halted his momentum. I think it’s Euro who’s been talking up his chances for some time and now I’m sold.
Where have you heard Dounikos is NH Chase bound DH? He looks the perfect type for that.
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I also agree ABP and Dounikos would be the next to take out of the race. I seem to recall ABP jumped into a closing gap at either the last or second last which really halted his momentum. I think it’s Euro who’s been talking up his chances for some time and now I’m sold.
Where have you heard Dounikos is NH Chase bound DH? He looks the perfect type for that.
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Desert Orchid
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Yes, but you seem to be dismissing the chance that he's progressing well with racing.
I'm not saying he can win. I'm really just saying his chances shouldn't be overlooked. I also quite like the fact that he has accumulated a fair bit of experience along the way and the RSA probably won't be any kind of culture shock to him.
All that said, I haven't studied the race in detail. I just know that BC's current rating would win an average renewal of the RSA.
Grasshopper
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Hard to discount, BC, but I wonder if he is really “progressing”?
To me, he seems like a horse who has found his level - and it’s a very smart one - but I’m not entirely convinced there is a stack more improvement in the locker.
The positives for BC insofar as the RSA is concerned, are that he is self-evidently very smart, he always runs his race, he has track form, he gets on well with his jockey, he jumps and stays, and appears to go on any ground. That ticks aof boxes, but I’d be a wee bit dissapointed, if there weren’t a couple better than him.
He is just a little uninspiring, imo, and not the kind of horse I’d expect to make a massive impact at G1 level in open company.
To me, he seems like a horse who has found his level - and it’s a very smart one - but I’m not entirely convinced there is a stack more improvement in the locker.
The positives for BC insofar as the RSA is concerned, are that he is self-evidently very smart, he always runs his race, he has track form, he gets on well with his jockey, he jumps and stays, and appears to go on any ground. That ticks aof boxes, but I’d be a wee bit dissapointed, if there weren’t a couple better than him.
He is just a little uninspiring, imo, and not the kind of horse I’d expect to make a massive impact at G1 level in open company.
Double Handful
At the Start
It was actually Dounikos who jumped into a closing gap over the last fence. Monalee came across him.
Reagrding Dounikos for the 4miler, just from reading the Market yesterday. Paddy Power cut him to 6/1 NRNB for it which is generally a sign of Irish money. He was then cut across the board with all books and there were whispers that Monbeg Notorious was being held back for the Irish national, leaving the way clear for Dounikos as the main Elliot/Gigi horse for the NHC.
P1ssed off that Percy looks sure to go RSA route after I'd backed him at 33/1 win only for the NH chase while he was crossing the line having hosed up at Fairyhouse it dawned on me earlier that it was with 365 and having just checked they're offering me over 5 times my stake back as a cash out.
Haven't heard from Kelly for while - he's definitely going RSA route isn't he ? He's 40+ to lay on the machine so I wasn't expecting such a nice cash out
Haven't heard from Kelly for while - he's definitely going RSA route isn't he ? He's 40+ to lay on the machine so I wasn't expecting such a nice cash out
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tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Looks like quite a weak RSA to me and definitely think Monalee is far less exposed than Percy.
Desert Orchid
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I think that's about right.
As far as 'progressing' goes, his RPR this season are, from oldest to most recent:
136
141
148
153
152
157
161
161
162
162
This would suggest he's reaching his plateau for the season but 162 is a pretty sound level.
Recent RSA winners, pre-race OR ... post-race OR:
Might Bite 154 / 161
Blaklion 150 / 154
Don Poli 156 / 163
O'Faolains Boy 144 / 156
BC's current OR is 155 so he is right up there in historical terms.
Just sayin' innat...
Cash your money!
Double Handful
At the Start
Looking at the racing post it has the following OR's:
Presenting Percy 157
Monalee 155
Not sure if that's their 'Irish Rating' or if it's already been migrated as an official UK rating?