Novice Chasers 2017/2018

Just for the sake of the exercise, here are two tables on the RSA.

The first is the top 20 in order of RPRs, the second the same 20 in order of current ORs.

The CBO is current best odds (ignoring the useless bookies).

It might, at a glance, help identify squeaks of value.


HorseRPRORCBO
Black Corton1721559/1
Mia’s Storm172*14920/1
Terrefort172**151not quoted
Ballyoptic17115025/1
Finian’s Oscar17015325/1
Presenting Percy1701573/1
Elegant Escape16915033/1
Shattered Love16814318/1
Jury Duty16714825/1
Rathvinden16715033/1
Willoughby Court16715216/1
Monalee1661557/2
Ms Parfois165*146nq
Sizing Tennessee165147nq
Yanworth16514912/1 NR?
Al Boum Photo16415312/1
Barney Dwan164145nq
Benatar16414920/1
Invitation Only16415212/1
Snow Falcon16414925/1

<tbody>
</tbody>

*rating includes mares’ allowance
**5yo


HorseRPRORCBO
Presenting Percy1701573/1
Black Corton1721559/1
Monalee1661557/2
Finian’s Oscar17015325/1
Al Boum Photo16415312/1
Willoughby Court16715216/1
Invitation Only16415212/1
Terrefort172**151not quoted
Ballyoptic17115025/1
Elegant Escape16915033/1
Rathvinden16715033/1
Mia’s Storm172*14920/1
Yanworth16514912/1 NR?
Benatar16414920/1
Snow Falcon16414925/1
Jury Duty16714825/1
Sizing Tennessee165147nq
Ms Parfois165*146nq
Barney Dwan164145nq
Shattered Love16814318/1

<tbody>
</tbody>
 
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I often ignore official ratings for novices unless, like Presenting Percy, they've posted the figure in a reliable handicap.

The argument about him having being found out in the past when stepping up from handicap to grade one company doesn't concern me because with the exception of Monalee I don't foresee many of those that are likely to run contesting grade ones next season.
 
archie said:
Irish.
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And the fact that they're entered in grade 1 festival novice chases, as opposed to handicaps, does the UK handicapper still have to give them an 'official' UK rating before they run at the festival?

And if so, how likely are those UK ratings going to differ from their current official Irish rating - from historical point of view?

I know the UK handicapper always adds a few lbs as standard to any Irish horse coming over to the festival to compete in a handicap, just not sure on the above scenario as it's not something I've ever looked at before.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just for the sake of the exercise, here are two tables on the RSA.

The first is the top 20 in order of RPRs, the second the same 20 in order of current ORs.

The CBO is current best odds (ignoring the useless bookies).

It might, at a glance, help identify squeaks of value.


HorseRPRORCBO
Black Corton1721559/1
Mia’s Storm172*14920/1
Terrefort172**151not quoted
Ballyoptic17115025/1
Finian’s Oscar17015325/1
Presenting Percy1701573/1
Elegant Escape16915033/1
Shattered Love16814318/1
Jury Duty16714825/1
Rathvinden16715033/1
Willoughby Court16715216/1
Monalee1661557/2
Ms Parfois165*146nq
Sizing Tennessee165147nq
Yanworth16514912/1 NR?
Al Boum Photo16415312/1
Barney Dwan164145nq
Benatar16414920/1
Invitation Only16415212/1
Snow Falcon16414925/1

<tbody>
</tbody>

*rating includes mares’ allowance
**5yo


HorseRPRORCBO
Presenting Percy1701573/1
Black Corton1721559/1
Monalee1661557/2
Finian’s Oscar17015325/1
Al Boum Photo16415312/1
Willoughby Court16715216/1
Invitation Only16415212/1
Terrefort172**151not quoted
Ballyoptic17115025/1
Elegant Escape16915033/1
Rathvinden16715033/1
Mia’s Storm172*14920/1
Yanworth16514912/1 NR?
Benatar16414920/1
Snow Falcon16414925/1
Jury Duty16714825/1
Sizing Tennessee165147nq
Ms Parfois165*146nq
Barney Dwan164145nq
Shattered Love16814318/1

<tbody>
</tbody>
Click to expand...
No Monbeg Notorious (152) or Dounikos (151) on either list DO ?
 
wilsonl said:
P1ssed off that Percy looks sure to go RSA route after I'd backed him at 33/1 win only for the NH chase while he was crossing the line having hosed up at Fairyhouse it dawned on me earlier that it was with 365 and having just checked they're offering me over 5 times my stake back as a cash out.
Click to expand...

I had £50 at 33/1 for the NH Chase, with no NRNB concession, no Cash-Out option, and no hope of seeing a fu*cking sheckel back.
 
Presenting Percy has the Davy Factor, I imagine DR has managed his racing programme all season .
Remember last year he won on Feb 25 to guarantee a place in Pertemps and got 16 pound hike in ratings, still managing to win, easily.
A bit like Forgive N Forget all those years ago but they don't have to change jockeys in RSA to get a more experienced pilot .
His run last Saturday will have educated him no end , as did his hurdles run to smarten his thinking when jumping.
As I posted previously, he was far too good a horse for Davy to waste running in NH Chase.
Were I a punter I would consider him the bet of the Festival. ( but I am not !!!)
 
Had to laugh at Kevin Blake today. In the same breath he questioned the decision to run Our Duke last weekend but said it was good for Presenting Percy.
Nothing to do with the position he took on Friday I’m sure.


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Yanworth formally scratched from the RSA and the JLT.


I'm just going to leave this Alan King quote here for a bit.........

"I’m hoping that Yanworth shows everyone what he can do – and shuts up one or two people – in the Grade 2 novice chase at Newbury on Friday. There was never any chance that he would switch back to hurdles after his fall at Exeter last time. What would be the point of that? Yet I saw that suggestion being made and it does annoy me when so-called experts, who’ve never sat on a horse in their lives, say that sort of thing."
 
Could connections of Monalee be tempted with the JLT now instead of the RSA?

After his win at the DFR over 2m4 and no potential monster(s) waiting for him in the JLT, the thought has to be crossing their mind....
 
granger said:
Bonbon au Miel one that escaped my radar to date
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Backed him for the RSA at 50/1 last night after reading WPM stable tour comments.

I thought it was interesting that Bonbon Au Miel got a couple of positive mentions.. so much so that Willie was saying he was Wylie's no.1 for RSA and that he'd definitely go for it, meaning JLT more likely for Invitation Only. Almost as if Invitation Only was to fit in around Bobbon Au Miel's plans. It encouraged me enough to take a chance ew at 50/1 - no NRNB concession though.
 
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