Novice Chasers 2017/2018

It's a stat that is there to be used in conjunction with other stats and whatever method you use to select the winner. It's bordering on Trumpism to belittle a stat because it doesn't agree with your own assessment.

In this case, I'd say the stat is slightly skewed because of the number of Mullins and Henderson horses on the list. Those two both work in the same way, ie backwards from the target so they have regular debut races already pencilled in. To get a horse fit this early in the season means that they will have been brought in earlier so it must be a cunning plan hatched months ago. I'm just intrigued that no-one has thought to ask Elliott and Tizzard the rationale behind it.
 
Some horses just don't want to run on potentially bottomless ground so they get an early race or two then put away until the spring.

WPM wasn't in any rush previously to get his string out too early but after the battle with GE last season, I can see that turning too
 
There is some merit to archie's stat - as he alluded to it is slightly skewed with the presence of Mullins and Henderson who start their horses off later with a view to peaking for Cheltenham and Punchestown.

Tizzard does have previous with not pulling up sticks mid season with good novices when they could arguably have done with a break at Christmas. Thistlecrack and Joe Lively spring to mind.

In contrast, although De Bromhead had Sizing Europe out in May he closed shop at Christmas and kept him fresh for the Arkle.

Similarly Elliott has gotten some match practice in early on with Death Duty on better ground with a view to targeting the Drinmore and then Christmas before taking a winter break. No More Heroes adopted a similar campaign. Mouse also adopted this approach with Alpha Des Obeaux and before that First Lieutenant.
 
Looking forward to seeing Brelan D'As today. Could be a very useful one for Nicholls, although he's clearly fragile.
 
I'm a sucker for front running grays, but was really taken with Capitaine. Didn't see anything that made me think he has to go that way round, but if it's the case there are plenty of good races for him to run in

West Approach also very likable, jumped well and clearly a decent stayer in the making
 
Yanworth and Sternrubin both entered in a Beginners Chase at Exter tomorrow.

FWIW, Timeform suggest that the "compact Yanworth is not an obvious chasing type", though Barry Geraghty reckons "he has scope".
 
Big Barry went from saying that he was a certain 3 mile stayer last year to a speedster over 2 at Kempton over a few weeks last year too

He'd sell Yanworth to the zoo as a zebra at this stage
 
:lol:

Funny, but just in case you missed it, the horse was found drugged in July on his CH run. Got beat over 2 and half 2 years ago in the Neptune and only won by 1 length from a handicapper over 3 miles last time out. He beat TNO at his preferred track by 3-4 lengths with ease over 2 miles. Thats quite the difference in form. He should stay 2 miles hurdling and drug-free and could prove a real challenge for BD'air.
 
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Yanworth tested positive for an anti-inflammatory substance which, arguably, would have enhanced his performance rather than degraded it. The fact that they're sending him chasing is a fairly clear indication that they don't see him beating the other JP hurdlers over 2 miles.
 
Just in case you missed it, Aughex, he was not "found drugged' - he returned an illegal sample after the Champion Hurdle, which is an entirely different thing. The illegal subtsance was an anti-inflammatory that is standard-use for horses in training, but which has no definitive clearance period. He was not "nobbled", which is what your posts seems to infer.

Good job they're sending him novice-chasing. it will save you from doing doing your absolute conkers on him in 2m hurdles this season.

Edit: Just noticed Archie got in before me.
 
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Thats good, but his form in the CH is bonkers compare with his previous 2 mile runs. As I remember it, he was disqualified for taking drugs and maybe for some horses it might have an adverse effect but his run suggests otherwise.

If he jumps well tomorrow, I'll still do back him @Grass because I think he's a top class animal. If Barry is right though and they reverse to hurdles, that would be better, I think.
 
Don't let the truth get in the way of a wild conspiracy Grass

I have also heard that Our Conor was converted to extremism before his ill fated champ hurdle and took out TNO to further the cause
 
Aughex said:
Thats good, but his form in the CH is bonkers compare with his previous 2 mile runs. As I remember it, he was disqualified for taking drugs and maybe for some horses it might have an adverse effect but his run suggests otherwise.

If he jumps well tomorrow, I'll still do back him @Grass because I think he's a top class animal. If Barry is right though and they reverse to hurdles, that would be better, I think.
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I don't agree that his CH run was "bonkers' in comparison to his other runs at 2m, which were not worth a carrot in terms of demonstrating true G1 class at the trip. Ch'Tibello holds-down the form of both his Grade 1 runs at 2m.

Yanworth ran exactly as I expected in the Champion Hurdle, because he has no tactical pace - something borne out by his subsequent win over 3m at Aintree.

Yanworth clearly has a bit of class, but he won't be able to demonstrate it, if they run him at the wrong trip. He can probably get away with it tomorrow, but they are a cert to step him up through the season, I reckon.
 
The form from his previous CH runs told us he should have beaten Sceau Royal by at least 7 lengths and TNO by at least 4 lengths. He was behind both. The pace of the CH hurdle was very honest with Petit doing his usual upfront, that would've suited Yanworth as well. There's no explanation for the run except drugs which we only found out 3 months ago. Till then I put it down to a bad run but I don't see any facts to tell me he ran as you'd have expected which is ridiculous as the majority placed a 2/1 favoritism on his chances beforehand, which granted were also on the hope he would improve, but mostly on his form which was top class.
 
I despair at this kind of analysis.

If you want any "facts" about how I viewed Yanworth pre-CH, then go and read the relevant thread on this very Forum.
 
Yanworth is a very good horse he is just not a Champion Hurdle horse. Like TNO it all happens that stride too quick for him.


He'll be what he was born to be..a JLT winner :o)
 
Yanworth and Sternrubin put in two likeable performances there albeit the latter doesn't want to get into a habit of jumping out to the right so early on in his chasing career.

Didn't tell us much other than Yanworth will be a force in the division.
 
I liked that. Looks very much like he'll be a lot more economical over fences than he was over hurdles which is a good sign.
 
I thought Yanworth ballooned the first couple, and whilst he warmed to his task, he still needed shaken-up against a horse rated 20lbs his inferior over hurdles. I know it was only his first outing in a chase, but I expected better, tbh.
 
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