Novice Hurdlers 2016/17

Defi won't be beaten for ground.

The horse is all about travelling and quickening, and the suggestion that he is some sort of hock-deep grinder is erroneous, imo. I honestly expect him to improve for quicker-ground. He positively floated over it when winning with his head in his chest at Ffos Las in October. The fact that the beaten horses have not achieved anything noteworthy since is moot, in my view, in terms of demonstrating his ability to act on faster ground.

Master Blueeyes is respected, as are one or two others, but I still think Defi is well clear of them, in terms of the form he has displayed, his course experience, and his running-style. He will need to be vulnerable on quicker ground, for any of them to get him into a race.
 
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Elliott indicating last night that Shattered Love will go to the Neptune with her allowance and leave the other two to scrap it out in the Mares Novices.

Bold.

Her form stands up to scrutiny and not too hard to see her being competitive.

Some 50s kicking around last night and 33s nrnb.
 
The mares novice last year was an event that offered little excitement in the build up - in much the same way that the Tuesday version has offered little up to now (regular Quevega procession aside) - but I have to say I'm quite looking forward to them both this year.
 
Looking at the Neptune betting, many are likely to be non-runners. I like Neon Wolf and Bacardys but not Finians Oscar. Kemboy at 25/1 is a big price for an intended runner.
 
I think the Master Blueyes we saw the other day is a different beast to the one seen previously this season.

My figure for him would see him placed probably in any of the last dozen Triumphs and winning a fair few of them.
 
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Kauto Abu said:
River Wylde confirmed for Supreme.
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Can't see it being too serious an entry. In recent seasons Hendo's Dovecote horses have avoided Cheltenham and gone to Aintree (and haven't done brilliantly there either). I think the last one to run at Cheltenham was Cup Final and he ran in the Coral Cup (well beaten).

I think he uses the Dovecote for his Div II horses as markers for his better ones.

Then again, I've been in awful form for long enough so maybe I'm just not reading things well these days.
 
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The owners have Lough Derg Spirit who's being kept for Aintree. To be fair on form RW looks more than a Div II horse. He had a G1 winner 9L behind him last Saturday and the other horses behind him tie in with some smart ones. What's he got better at the moment? He looks to be Henderson's leading Supreme hope now after winning 2 novices & a grade1. I know they thought a lot of him earlier this season before he flopped in his bumper but he came back sick after that. After a lot of thought I narrowed my selections down to 3 with value in mind, all double figures.

I had been on Jenkins from 25s down but the injury he sustained at Christmas ruled him out. He was there main Supreme hope this year but River Wylde's form ties in on lines with Jenkins through Capitaine & Captain Forez. I think it reads well. 16/1 is value.

Another one I've had an ew bet on from that form line is Colin Tizzard's Pingshou at 50/1. Fourth on debut before winning in December at Cheltenham. That win has also worked out quite well with the 8th absolutely pissing in since. The last is Cilaos Emery who was way to keen for his own good and is over priced at 20s. The supreme with a bit of cover should help him settle.

The way I look at it now is that the supreme is wide open this year. I'd rather have a shot at some value in form lines good to me all year than to back the likes of Melon, or an 8yo like Moon Racer we last saw mid November.


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I'm on Moon Racer antepost but I'm resigned to him turning up in the Champion Hurdle after the recent noises coming out of the Pipe camp. I'm less concerned about the single, but the switch will screw up a good few handy looking multiples.

I too have taken the view that the race looks wide open, and a look back over the years when the race has this feel it's not unusual to have a shock winner and/or or big prices running into the places. Interestingly the three you mention are all on my my list of each way value horses KA.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think the Master Blueyes we saw the other day is a different beast to the one seen previously this season.

My figure for him would see him placed probably in any of the last dozen Triumphs and winning a fair few of them.
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I see Paul Kealy agrees and has put him up as a 3* ew bet.
 
Charli Parcs to run in the Triumph according to the Sporting Life


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A lot of people are deriding the price of Melon and probably quite rightly. However Bunk Off Early is only a couple of points bigger and WPM's says it'll be an easy choice for Ruby to ride Melon based on homework.

I think we can safely conclude from that he's the best horse coming out of Closutton and therefore Ireland.
 
TheBear said:
A lot of people are deriding the price of Melon and probably quite rightly. However Bunk Off Early is only a couple of points bigger and WPM's says it'll be an easy choice for Ruby to ride Melon based on based on homework.

I think we can safely conclude from that he's the best horse coming out of Closutton and therefore Ireland.
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It's the problem with novices that there is so little course form to go on. Ruby's record in G1 novice hurdles this season:

Royal Bond
Chose Penhill - finished 15l behind winning stable-mate, Airlie Beach

Future Champions
Chose Riven Light - finished 14l behind winning stable-mate, Saturnas

Deloitte
Chose Saturnas - finished 72l behind winning stable-mate, Bacardys

The best judge at Closutton is probably David Casey and he thinks that Bunk Off Early is decent value at 8/1.
 
Grasshopper said:
Ballyandy goes for the Supreme, according to NTD.
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Hopefully there's an adequate field size and pacemaker to aid Ballyandy instead of the opposing jocks let Ruby dictate his own pace which seems to have happened an awful lot in the champion and supreme in the last few years.
 
archie said:
It's the problem with novices that there is so little course form to go on. Ruby's record in G1 novice hurdles this season:

Royal Bond
Chose Penhill - finished 15l behind winning stable-mate, Airlie Beach

Future Champions
Chose Riven Light - finished 14l behind winning stable-mate, Saturnas

Deloitte
Chose Saturnas - finished 72l behind winning stable-mate, Bacardys

The best judge at Closutton is probably David Casey and he thinks that Bunk Off Early is decent value at 8/1.
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Good point well made
 
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