Novice Hurdlers 2018/2019

Going to take a bit of a punt and say that it was Paul Carberry's Bellvano that beat him.

I'm wrong, Menorah beat odds on Bellvano...
 
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Novice Hurdlers 2018/2019 (now with Chelt Festival entries)

Fusil Raffles will miss the Triumph


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I managed to spend some decent time yesterday looking at some of the novices. Seriously impressed with Elxir De Nutz. No supirse money coming in for him.

Tricast of:
Elixir De Nutz
Al Dancer
Mister Fisher/Klassical Dream. Ill decide on day.
 
I’ve fairly attractive dockets on Angels Breath @ 33s & 25s and an ew antepost on Thomas Darby at 33.


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Regarding Elixir, who I also like the look of - have been wondering about his defeat to Thomas Darby in autumn, who came through from miles back to beat him well.

Know TD beaten at Kempton at Christmas, but maybe not suited by the track?

Elixir will make all, but could he be vulnerable to similar - even from TD again?


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I haven't backed Angel's Breath, and I'm pretty sure I'm in a very small minority who thought Saturday was a good trial. I will probably end up backing him on the strength of it.

I've also considered Thomas Darby ew, but again I haven't committed, or to the race at all yet, and may still change my mind.
 
Novice Hurdlers 2018/2019 (now with Chelt Festival entries)

Initially I was disappointed with Angels Breath after last Saturday’s defeat but the more I looked at it the more impressive I thought his performance was.

What most people don’t understand is that it wasn’t just the last week or so the horse has been inconvenienced, if you go back to the 2nd week of January AB was supposed to go to Haydock to tackle the Sky Bet Supreme Trial but Henderson had to sub in Mister Fisher instead. AB was coughing and had a fairly dirty nose so he underwent a course of antibiotics causing him to miss a week.

Then the snow came which further halted any more major work followed by the Equine Flu drama. He got his booster followed by another 8 days of rest so he’s been held up quite a lot over that period with no work at all for a long time. He hadn’t gone up that hill at home in a long time prior to the Dovecote. He was totally entitled to blow up against a flea fit Southfield Stone giving him 5lbs. On a line through SS it puts him ahead of Elixir De Nutz with more improvement to come.

The fact the track record was broke last Saturday and furthermore that he carried 9lbs more than Fusil Raffels but still finished a second faster all point to the fact that this lad is not slow. I love the way he finished off his race too. Bodes well for the hill.


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That run behind Battleoverdoyen was eyecatching. Even more so given his mistake at the second last. The time was good as well. I have him tucked away at 20/1 nrnb sothat's good news.
 
Maruco said:
That run behind Battleoverdoyen was eyecatching. Even more so given his mistake at the second last. The time was good as well. I have him tucked away at 20/1 nrnb sothat's good news.
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Sam's profile made an even worse mistake at the 4th last that day, which cost him lengths at a crucial time. 3 nice sighters now over hurdles at various distances and going descriptions. Still some 25/1 out there without the NRNB concession, and barring a setback, he looks nailed on to go Ballymore. You just know mouse will have him spot on for the day too. He looks super EW value in relative comparison to Battleoverdoyen.
 
I've taken a little fun-money on Benny's Bridge for the Supreme (66/1 ew nrnb/bog).

He's in the Imperial Cup on Saturday and seemingly being backed. I haven't looked at that race yet and won't manage to do so until some time of Friday afternoon but I imagine I'll end up betting him that too and expect him not to run again on Tuesday anyway. But I don't really expect him to make the cut for the County and I'm not sure what else he'll get into.

I think this is one seriously under-rated horse.

On the face of it, off 126 he should be half a furlong behind the likes of Al Dancer or Fakir in the Supreme.

However, on trials day when he won the handicap he ran final three flights at least 15 lengths faster than Fakir without seemngly being asked too serious a question. I reckon he probably wouldn't have run any faster after the last even if he'd been asked to but he made his ground from last at the top of the hill on the bit until joining the leaders at the last.

I wouldn't necessarily take that time comparison at face value but neither would I dismiss it out of hand.

His price reflects his current rating but I think he is an awful lot better than that.

There's no downside to the bet so I'm happy to play.
 
Word from inside seven barrows is that Walters is trying everything in his power to get Russel on Board Angels Breath.


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granger said:
That would cut him in a few points
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Ya, if he got his way. Doubt Nicky would be too happy with it tho.

He’s into 4s in places now with AD out to 10/3. It would probably see him go in as fav to be honest.


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Maruco said:
More like Russell is in Walters ear wanting the ride on Angels Breath.
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From what I can gather from there he was already committed to Elliott but Waters wants him so he’s trying to get out of Giggi ride.


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Is Nico still considered a negative (relative to someone like Davy)?

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If picking between the two it would be Davy every time, but there is no way I would classify Nico as a negative. His big race record is top class and can't remember him making a mistake in one
 
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