Novice Hurdlers 21/22

F*ck laying off. I’m the twat who was merrily gloating about my Mytentoryours 33/1 Supreme ticket to my non racing friends who were there with me, just before the off on the Opening day.

Their reaction when he failed to go past Champagne Fever was in the heat of the moment unwarranted I felt but in hindsight maybe not :lol:
 
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Yes, always a good read. I’ll be really interested in how his ratings pan out.

”My sectionally adjusted ratings of the principals for the Supreme are: 158 Sir Gerhard, 157 Dysart Dynamo, 152 Kilcruit, 151 Constitution Hill, 150 Three Stripe Life, 148 Jonbon. “

Trouble with ratings, particularly novices, is that they expose what a a horse did do as opposed to what it can do. How much petrol they had left is anyone’s guess and more a question of judgement than rating.


ps: and even if you could establish what they can do, they have still got to do it on the day!
 
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barjon said:
Trouble with ratings, particularly novices, is that they expose what a a horse did do as opposed to what it can do. How much petrol they had left is anyone’s guess and more a question of judgement than rating.


ps: and even if you could establish what they can do, they have still got to do it on the day!
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This, for me, is something the majority of punters don't even think about. One of the really good things about this forum is that [imo] plenty of forumites do understand this.


There's another side to this, though, that I like to try and exploit. It's when you know what it takes to win an average renewal of a certain race and you come across one that's already hit that kind of level. That makes them immediately interesting as betting material because you know it will take an above average performance to beat them but a place, even if it's a minor one, is virtually guaranteed (barring mishap, obviously). And you often get around 5/1 or even better with such types.

The higher-rated of those on SR's list are already above average, which is brilliant for the race and for future chasing.

The only thing I feel SR hasn't allowed for is the ease of victory of DD. Maybe he couldn't have gone any faster in the final half-mile given what he'd done up to that stage but he did make it look like he was cantering (see replay facility below).

What did he have in reserve? Five lengths would equate to nearly 6lb. As individuals we have the freedom to add that to whatever 'mechanical' rating the formulae come up with. Personally, I just add a + or a ++ (which I have with DD) just to remind me to allow for the likelihood of much more to come.

Racing Results | 12:15 Punchestown | Sun 16 Jan 2022 (racingtv.com)
 
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Double J said:
Ive got the 66s and 40s with 365, Ill be letting them ride. My thinking is 16s will trim in so back the 16s and lay back off. I dont need to top up the position im in, just make a few more quid if ive read it right.
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You might not have to wait too long. Pricewise has tipped him today so he’s already down to 10s and falling.
 
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