Novice Hurdlers 21/22

Slim said:
Jonbon's ratings is based on the novice form. So does 155 mean 155 when the novices were ran over in the Betfair? I could argure both are massively overrated and Dysart Dynamo will be a level above.
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This is the tricky part.

I think the idea of 10-year standards is a double-edged sword.

If the original ratings are accurate then they can be a useful guide to the level of a renewal of a race for which the standards exist (nearly every race, as it happens). But do they allow for a duff year? Two duff years in a row?

If there are flaws in the ratings I think they will exaggerate the flaws going down the line.

However, I do think nowadays the standards among the top novices are looking solid. I remember years ago being enthused at the idea of a Supreme winner hitting a rating of 155. Now they're smashing 160 every other year. That might make Jonbon and/or Constitution Hill look relatively moderate on ratings in the mid-high 140s.

But I also think the MO these days among the top trainers is not to have their horses 110% until it matters - the festival. I think even the DRF winners are probably still only at 95% at the top level. I also can't help thinking the likes of DD skipped the DRF because the yard had Sir Gerhard there as a marker.

That's kind of why I wonder if CH and FS took in the big handicap the other day. Were they acting as markers for CH and Jonbon? Will Hendo be pleased or disappointed with their performances?

I imagine much will depend upon the feedback from the respective riders. If they come back and report that the pace was strong, they thought at one point they had a good chance but the others were just even better then that might reassure Hendo. If they say it didn't ride like that good a race and their own horses weren't really that good then how might that reflect on the esteem in which the 'superior' novices are held?

Again, just the kind of thing that intrigues me and has me ending up writing ******* essays when I could be watching TV :lol:
 
Slim said:
Jonbon's ratings is based on the novice form. So does 155 mean 155 when the novices were ran over in the Betfair? I could argure both are massively overrated and Dysart Dynamo will be a level above.


Thirdly, the UK horses won't catch up quickly bevause a lot of their horses will be handicapped on last year's novice form where the Irish were far superior. Parity is a few years away.
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Constitution Hill reeks of the next Shishkin/Altior.
 
I think you make a good point about Hendos D.
I backed first street because of the fact that he had occurred a 9lb rise for winning a 6g race,so he must have thought it was capable and that he needn't run CH or Jonbon.
The fact JP owns Jonbon makes you think he might be a bit special but on hcap ratings it will need to show a stone improvement.
It all makes for an interesting race.
I
 
Outsider said:
I think you make a good point about Hendos D.
I backed first street because of the fact that he had occurred a 9lb rise for winning a 6g race,so he must have thought it was capable and that he needn't run CH or Jonbon.
The fact JP owns Jonbon makes you think he might be a bit special but on hcap ratings it will need to show a stone improvement.
It all makes for an interesting race.
I
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Jonbon couldn't run in the Betfair brvsuse he wasn't eligible. You need three runs over hurdles to qualify.
 
granger said:
On looks or form?
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I think the form is fine. Might I ran well enough against Jonbon and whilst Jetolie was tailed off last Saturday I put that down to too aggressive a pace. The Horse Jetoile beat at Leicester previous to encountering CH ran well in the Leamington and that from was franked in the Sidney Banks.

He reminded me of Altior the way he bolted up the Sandown straight in his maiden and in the Tolworth, no horse looked like he did that day on heavy ground.

He's a wow horse, and I've been watching racing for long enough to know that when one of those show up (and there have been two in the last six months) you just ******* back them
 
Reluctant as I am to go against Jonbon I think CH is very special and he has a champions temperament to go with it. They are both going dine above the salt. Who is your second one, Euro, GDC?
 
Euronymous said:
I think the form is fine. Might I ran well enough against Jonbon and whilst Jetolie was tailed off last Saturday I put that down to too aggressive a pace. The Horse Jetoile beat at Leicester previous to encountering CH ran well in the Leamington and that from was franked in the Sidney Banks.

He reminded me of Altior the way he bolted up the Sandown straight in his maiden and in the Tolworth, no horse looked like he did that day on heavy ground.

He's a wow horse, and I've been watching racing for long enough to know that when one of those show up (and there have been two in the last six months) you just ******* back them
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I have no problems at all with people going with their gut on horses as I do it myself

If your full argument was form, i'd have some question marks

I like CH myself by the way but the betfair gave me some thinking regarding UK novices

Pretty sure that no matter what, he ends up over fences next season
 
Entries for Newmarket not out yet and wow for me was both runs honestly. Best end it there though, the jumps only brigade will not like 2000 Guineas talk three weeks before the Festival.
 
The more I look at it, the more I like DD's chance. Previous winners were hammered out of sight in Punchestown, and the third in that race (beaten 49L) has since won a novice by 9L (now rated 130).

OK, it's not always that linear, but this yoke has never been out of a trot to win two bumpers and two novice hurdles, and appears to have it all. I think it's also a race where front-running is a help rather than a hindrance.

There's almost nothing not to like about his profile, and the 100/30 available is starting to appeal to me greatly - especially given that the market might just be over-estimating the strength of the English form.

I think I'm going to have to take my chance.
 
Grasshopper said:
The more I look at it, the more I like DD's chance. Previous winners were hammered out of sight in Punchestown, and the third in that race (beaten 49L) has since won a novice by 9L (now rated 130).

OK, it's not always that linear, but this yoke has never been out of a trot to win two bumpers and two novice hurdles, and appears to have it all. I think it's also a race where front-running is a help rather than a hindrance.

There's almost nothing not to like about his profile, and the 100/30 available is starting to appeal to me greatly - especially given that the market might just be over-estimating the strength of the English form.

I think I'm going to have to take my chance.
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Can’t fault any of that, grassy. DD has been taken to deeper waters than the other two. Comes down to potential (hope) vs form so far, I guess. I can’t wait to watch it pan out and I doubt I’ll have more than pennies down to worry about.
 
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Constitution Hill definitely had a wow about him at Sandown, especially up the hill.

For me, DD had a wow about him from before halfway in his race.
 
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