Older Horses 2011

Good win for Cape Blanco. He deserved to win a race like that. Gio Ponti has lost a step and he has not the acceleration he once had.

Cape Blanco will probably head back to the States again for the Arlington Million and races like that this year.
 
Good for the owners too after plouging the money in but the story has to be that Spencer is back in the big time. He's had two very important Group 1 wins for the mafia and the man paying his bills. Onwards and upwards.
 
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I think that is 9 G1s for O'Brien so far this year

With the horses he has this could be the year he beats Bobby Frankel's record of G1 wins in a season.

He will obviously have to ship his horses all over the map to get it done.
 
Powerscourt said:
I think that is 9 G1s for O'Brien so far this year

With the horses he has this could be the year he beats Bobby Frankel's record of G1 wins in a season.

He will obviously have to ship his horses all over the map to get it done.
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No chance. 100/1. 3 yo are useless. Would need to win every 2yo Group 1 to have any chance.
 
I think he would have had to not get touched off in the PoW and the Prix Jean Prat to have a chance. It's a huge ask - basically everything has to go right.

BTW, if his 3yos are useless, he's making serious hay out of them - 4 of those 9 G1s, with big chances in the Irish Oaks and GP de Paris to come.
 
Gearoid said:
No chance. 100/1. 3 yo are useless. Would need to win every 2yo Group 1 to have any chance.
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Think he could go close all the same with the older horses he has and if he ships them overseas.

You never know with the two year olds but Power and the filly at Royal Ascot look decent and then there are the races later in the season for the Derby type horses.

Geroid, I think 100/1 is very generous. I could see it geting close but as Gareth said everything would have to go right.
 
I take all of your points and I realise my opinion is to the extreme but I've said since last season that the 3yo colts were useless, rather than the opposite sex. Regardless of that I still give him no chance. He will break the record but not this year.
 
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Gearoid said:
Good for the owners too after plouging the money in but the story has to be that Spencer is back in the big time. He's had two very important Group 1 wins for the mafia and the man paying his bills. Onwards and upwards.
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eh not really. He's won a Group 1 for slowboats and one that barely registers as a race for any serious horses.
 
Hamm said:
eh not really. He's won a Group 1 for slowboats and one that barely registers as a race for any serious horses.
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Secretariat, Daylami and Fantastic Light all won the Man o'War at Belmont. It has the unfortunate position in the calendar so it doesn't attract top class European turf horses but some serious horses have won it in the past.
 
Those horses are all some way back. It's a nothing race now and no very good horses are targeted at it.
 
Was only three years ago when a World Champion finished between two Breeders Cup Turf winners in it.

Like most US turf events, the quality is up and down over the years, particularly if you have a dim view of US turf runners in the first place.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Like most US turf events, the quality is up and down over the years, particularly if you have a dim view of US turf runners in the first place.
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Agree with that, the Arlington Million seems to vary greatly in quality every year. Obviously, European turf performers are better than US ones on the whole but there are occasions like this year when a good European horse will go over there.
 
Nick Mordin's thoughts:


SO YOU THINK TOUGH TO BEAT OVER 9-10 FURLONGS

SO YOU THINK (43) may not have a great turn of foot. But he can sustain a strong gallop all the way through a 9-10 furlong contest and this makes him tough to beat over that sort of distance.

In fact if that photo had gone his way at Royal Ascot So You Think would have won all ten times he's run 9-10 furlongs.

In last Saturday's Eclipse Stakes showed his durability once more, coming from off a strong pace to wear down the Derby and Arc winner Workforce in a lengthy duel up the straight. The uphill finish clearly helped him by slowing things up and making the race more a war of attrition than a speed duel in the closing stages. The final furlong took 12.8 seconds.

Trainer Aidan O'Brien looks to have the right idea about So You Think. The three possible targets he mentioned for the horse after Sandown were the Cox Plate, the Juddmonte International and the Irish Champion Stakes – all ten furlong contests.

I can understand why a lot of racing fans would like to see So You Think go up in distance to tackle the Arc. Indeed, after I saw his first European run I thought he'd be more effective over the mile and a half of that race. Now I think I was mistaken.

First of all let's not forget that So You Think is a very muscular, heavy horse. The heavier a horse is the shorter the distance it is likely to be suited to. In addition So You Think was bred in New Zealand, and although Kiwi horses do stay a bit better than their Australian counterparts results show that on average they're suited to shorter trips than European horses when running against foreign competition.

The real nail in the coffin for So You Think's potential Arc bid is the layout of the course at Longchamp. The downhill run from the home turn at Longchamp doesn't stop until they reach the furlong pole. So unless the ground is genuinely soft they invariably clock under 36 seconds for the last three furlongs in the Arc. Even if his stamina held out So You Think would surely find himself swamped for finishing speed by at least a couple of rivals.

Runner up WORKFORCE (43) is also not blessed with an electrifying turn of foot. But he stays really well. So if the ground turns up soft again for the Arc he would have a real shot of winning the race for a second year in a row.

The caveat I'd have about Workforce's chances of pulling off a second Arc win even on soft ground is the sheer number of top class rivals he'd be facing at Longchamp. This is an amazing year for older middle distance horses in France, and there look set to be at least a couple of potential three year old winners lining up at Longchamp too. As I see it Workforce would simply be one of six or eight horses with a similar sort of chance even if he got the cut in the ground he prefers.

On the plus side Workforce showed at Sandown that he can cope with a reasonably fast surface. Due to his heavy physique and a stride pattern that shows knee action he hits the ground hard. So he's always going to be in danger of getting jarred up and hanging on really fast ground as he did in the Dante and the King George last year.

Seeing that trainer Sir Michael Stoute pulled Workforce out of last year's Breeders' Cup Turf due to the firm ground I can understand why his connections would be cautious about any more overseas ventures other than the Arc. But it seems to me that the Caulfield Cup would be a very good alternative. He'd be meeting weaker opposition and the official policy in Australia is to water to produce dead ground.

SRI PUTRA (39) was once more rather 'colty' in the parade ring before the race. He's become decidedly quirky as he's gotten older in that he races with his head high and doesn't seem that keen on putting in a maximum effort. However he can come through late to pick up the pieces when his rivals tire and did so again to take third here.

Johnny Murtagh reported that disappointing fourth placed SNOW FAIRY (36) did not handle the track. This seems very likely to me.



The key to Snow Fairy seems to be the length of the homestraight. On tracks where the homestraight is five furlongs or more her amazing finishing burst seems to dissipate. Her form figures on such courses read 3243924. On tracks with shorter homestraights like today’s she’d won six times out of six before the Eclipse. (In this regard you should note her loss at Goodwood was around the top loop where the homestraight is five furlongs and her win was around the lower loop where it is four furlongs).

The homestraight at Sandown is four furlongs, but it is steeply uphill and this seemed to catch Snow Fairy out in the same way that slightly longer homestraights have in the past.

Snow Fairy has won Group 1’s in four different countries. She’s taken one of the world’s most valuable races against some of the top males on the planet. And, outside of her dislike of lengthy homestraights, she's remarkably versatile.

Last year in Japan Snow Fairy powered through off a searching early pace to kick clear and win the Grade 1 QEII Commemorative Cup from Japan’s best fillies by four lengths. Next time out in Hong Kong she produced an amazing finishing burst over the final two furlongs off a slow early gallop. She officially took 21.93 seconds to cover the last two furlongs but I made it 21.41 seconds off the video. Either way she was travelling astonishingly fast as she blasted through from twelfth place at the quarter mile pole to get up and win by a neck.

I don't think that Snow Fairy will have much trouble winning the Nassau Stakes next time out. From a punting perspective I rather hope she then goes for the Yorkshire Oaks where the long homestraight seems unlikely to suit her. A loss there would see her start at big odds for the Irish Champion Stakes. But on the dead flat track with a three furlong homestraight that it's run on I reckon her turn of foot would make her very hard to beat. In fact I'd gladly bet her to reverse Eclipse placing with So You Think in that race provided she got the fast surface she needs. This is a very under-rated filly.
 
I am not one who enjoys criticising Mordin, and I agree with those who think that he comes up with some genuine nuggets at times.

However, almost everything in that post is horseshit.

So You Think won't stay because he is muscular and from New Zealand.
So You Think won't win the Arc because he doesn't stay, and because he will be done for finishing speed.
Workforce should go for the Caulfield Cup instead of the Arc.
Snow Fairy should beat So You Think at Leopardstown because of the short home straight.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
I am not one who enjoys criticising Mordin, and I agree with those who think that he comes up with some genuine nuggets at times.

However, almost everything in that post is horseshit.

So You Think won't stay because he is muscular and from New Zealand.
So You Think won't win the Arc because he doesn't stay, and because he will be done for finishing speed.
Workforce should go for the Caulfield Cup instead of the Arc.
Snow Fairy should beat So You Think at Leopardstown because of the short home straight.
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I agree that he does turn up some nuggets (but in percentage terms it is almost certain that he will) and he is at least taking a view (no doubt a deliberately contentious one, as he is a contrarian)... but the logic of the above does looked decidedly flawed I would agree.
 
I have to say, I quite like his theories on whether certain horses' styles suit long or short straights. But the way he applies them, as if that's the only thing stopping a horse from winning regardless of the class of opposition is just strange.
 
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