Order Of Merit

I defend him when I feel people are being unfair to him - which to be fair, people don't generally tend to be although you are vociferous in your dislike of him! One thing anyone who knows me well will tell you is that despite my numerous faults I am fiercely loyal and will always argue the corner for someone I feel is being unfairly maligned, even if in doing so I am in the minority (there you go fellas - I'll mention Brad before anyone can get it in!!!! :P )

What most people don't realise is that Edgy is actually quite shy which is a big reason why he doesn't come across well in public - in TV interviews and the like. He hates doing them which is why he does them so rarely.

Of course you are entitled to your opinion of him, even though I still am of the opinion that you don't really know him - you don't get to know someone through a few stable visits when one of a massive crowd!! Still, you are entitled to think what you like but don't expect me not to defend him against some of the vociferous comments you come out with! As I said, he is also widely very well liked in the industry, so I'm not the only one who thinks such of him! Many people are very fond of Edgy.

As for the record supporting me - I really can't have that in the slightest, then again, the formbook is in black and white if some people wish to interpret it in bizarre ways!!!
 
Having spent the first half of the season prowling around in search of some value in The Order Of Merit betting, I am now ready to pounce.

In terms of races, we are only about halfway through this season's OOM. However, as a large chunk of the remaining races are clumped together around the festivals, most of the decent horses will only be running upto 3 times more (typically - Cheltenham prep, Cheltenham and Aintree).

Consequently, it is now very difficult for anything to make-up ground on the leaders and it is now highly likely that the winner is already very high-up the leaderboard. That might sound like stating the obvious but the bookmakers don't seem to have realised just how few horses actually have a realistic chance of winning this (most still have Denman at about 10/1 - he's 42 points off the pace ffs!) and **foolishly** are still offering generous place terms (1/4 1-2-3).

As we stand, this is the leaderboard complete with my notes...

1 Kauto Star 52 - Being aimed at Ascot Chase/Gold Cup. Providing he avoids any injuries/mis-haps should get to 80+ points which might well be enough. Nicholls may be tempted to run him at Aintree too - if it means bagging the £200k?

2 Lough Derg 40 - Got enough points on the board and competes in a division that lacks strength in depth, but probably fluked the Long Walk and lacks class to get into the meaty end of the points in races like The World Hurdle or The Liverpool Hurdle so would probably have to run in The Cleeve and The Rendlesham as well, in search of points. Unlikely winner unless connections really go for it.

3 Exotic Dancer 38 - Almost certainly in the frame if staying sound and fair chance of reeling-in Kauto if running well in Letherby & Christopher, Gold Cup and Melling Chase. Jonjo said earlier in the season that this horse was being aimed at this competition, so it would be no surprise to see him run in The Faucets for Mira Showers race at Cheltenham at the end of the season too. Outstanding each way value at 10/1

4 Harchibald 36 - No chance unless running in England more than once, which is unlikely AFAIAA.

5 Hardy Eustace 31 - See Harchibald

5 Voy Por Ustedes 31 - Place chance if running well in Cheltenham prep (Game Spirit?) and Champion Chase but no obvious target at Aintree. Could go for Celebration Chase?

7 Monet's Garden 27 - No chance as only going to run twice more.

7 Black Jack Ketchum 27 - Unlikely to run often enough or well enough.

9 Racing Demon 25 - See Black Jack Ketchum

10 Straw Bear - Place chances if they really go for this, but indications are that his campaign will be fairly light from now on.

10 Katchit 24 - See Straw Bear

12 Osana 23 - See Straw Bear

12 Pablo Du Charmil 23 - Not classy enough to catch leaders

12 Pouvoir 23 - See Pablo Du Charmil

15 Penzance 22 - See Pablo Du Charmil

15 Hoo La Baloo 22 - See Pablo Du Charmil

15 Special Envoy 22 - See Pablo Du Charmil

18 Ollie Magern Nigel 21 See Pablo Du Charmil

19 Royal Shakespeare 20 - Order Of Merit legend, but no chance this year.

19 Twist Magic 20 - Place chance if running well in VC Chase and Champion Chase but no obvious target at Aintree. Could go for Celebration Chase?

19 Mister Quasimodo 20 - See Pablo Du Charmil

Conclusion: Very few horses can win this now. Kauto Star deserves to be long odds-on (something like 2/5 - 1/3 IMO), but Exotic Dancer (yes, despite his trainer!) is a cracking each way poke at 10/1. He only needs to stay sound and avoid falling to be in the frame and could just nick it!
 
Very good thinking Relkeel, except having v few bookies accounts I can't find how to put on a bet!
Who is offering this - can't find it on PP [and KS is currently 1.55 on Betfair]


On the other hand I did find this bet offered at 8/1

< Any trainer to train both the Cheltenham Gold Cup & Grand National winners in 2008 >


which seems to me good odds for these combinations:

Kauto Star/Denman with Mr Pointment

Exotic Dancer with Butlers Cabin
 
Sorry, Paddy Power, thought that was clear!
Look under 'horseracing' > exotic bets > national hunt

They have the same bet for jockeys and few others or more or less feasibility!
 
Excellent stuff Relkeel ~ have put a couple of colleagues on to it. I'm afraid that Headstrong's "value bet" with PP is nothing of the sort. Essentially this bet is about Nicholls winning the GN. The odds of that are about 10/1 in reality, so why would you back him at 8/1 in a double? It's easy to think that you have insurance with the Exotic Dancer/Butler's Cabin double but the chance of that happening is genuinely 250/1, so it adds virtually nothing by way of value.
 
It is reported in The RP today that Katchit will run in The Kingwell and The Champion, but then not again this season. Meanwhile, Straw Bear goes straight to Cheltenham.

This, effectively, rules both of them out of the OOM.
 
Originally posted by Relkeel@Dec 30 2007, 12:24 AM
2 Lough Derg 40 - Got enough points on the board and competes in a division that lacks strength in depth, but probably fluked the Long Walk and lacks class to get into the meaty end of the points in races like The World Hurdle or The Liverpool Hurdle so would probably have to run in The Cleeve and The Rendlesham as well, in search of points. Unlikely winner unless connections really go for it.
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Lough Derg is declared for a Grade 2 handicap hurdle at Ascot in which only he and Penzance are in the weights. He will go top of The OOM if he wins.

Obviously the meeting is in doubt but, even if he does not get the chance to run, this is a definite signal of intent from Team Pipe and he should be backed at 16/1 each way.
 
Looking good for Lough Derg after todays win in the National Spirit Hurdle.
Doesn't look like he'll be resting on his laurels either with Cheltenham,Aintree and Ayr (if needed) on the agenda before the seasons end.
 
Originally posted by uncle goober@Nov 1 2007, 08:13 PM
and we havent even got to Oscar P(ark) ....
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WE HAVE NOW :clap: :clap: :clap:

tho not in OM terms.

Well done to Lough Dergh, he shoudl win this now easy peasy,
and well done to those who backed him [I meant to but forgot :what: ]
 
For anyone interested:

Current leaderboard
Place Horse Trainer Points
1 Lough Derg David Pipe 86
2 Kauto Star Paul Nicholls 72
3 Voy Por Ustedes Alan King 43
3 Monet's Garden Nicky Richards 43
5 Katchit Alan King 39
6 Exotic Dancer Jonjo O'Neill 38
7 Racing Demon Henrietta Knight 37
8 Straw Bear Nick Gifford 36
8 Twist Magic Paul Nicholls 36
8 Harchibald Noel Meade 36
11 Ollie Magern Nigel Twiston-Davies 34
12 Kasbah Bliss Francois Douman 33
12 Afsoun N. J. Henderson 33
14 Hardy Eustace Dessie Hughes 31
15 Inglis Drever Howard Johnson 30
15 Hoo La Baloo Paul Nicholls 30
15 Tamarinbleu D. E. Pipe 30
18 Our Vic David Pipe 28
19 Black Jack Ketchum Jonjo O'Neill 27
20 Denman Paul Nicholls 25
21 Pouvoir Alan King 23
21 Osana D Pipe 23
23 Special Envoy Peter Bowen 22
23 Refinement Jonjo O'Neill 22
23 Penzance Alan King 22
23 Natal Paul Nicholls 22
27 Howle Hill Alan King 21
27 Pablo Du Charmil D E Pipe 21
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Feb 24 2008, 08:35 PM
[Well done to Lough Dergh, he shoudl win this now easy peasy]
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Not so sure myself as Kauto's likely to be heading to Aintree after next week, so could be hard to beat if things go his way
 
Lough Derg now runs at Ayr this weekend, if he manages to sneak fourth place he wins the Order Of Merit.

Question is should the horse be running, ran twice at Aintree and has had a very tough campaign. 2 miles is clearly not his trip and is "only" running here for 1 million.

I am all for running horses frequently, but there needs to be some perspective. Royal Shakespere won this in similar fashion previously but has not been the same horse since. Lough Derg has served his connections well and with honour this season. I fear there will not be much left of him by next season.
 
It is clearly a decision for betterment of connections rather than horses best interests. I agree chances are he could be bottomed out next season but with the prize at stake, is it wrong of connections to aim for it?
 
How hard a race would he have to have to get 4th? - that's the question...

It's hard to say given that horses are in training to win races and prize money, that he shouldn't take his chance, so long as the jockey exercises a sense of discretion in the race itself. Winning also 'immortalises' the horse in the annals.

I couldn't be too harsh in saying they are abusing thehorse in having a go *so long as* they don't abuse him on the day. If he had to win it might be a different story; and presumably he will have a very long rest after ti
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Apr 12 2008, 05:49 PM
Royal Shakespere won this in similar fashion previously but has not been the same horse since.
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Utter, utter b0ll0cks.

Apart from the fact that Royal Shakespeare ran just about as well as he ever has when he ran in The Scottish Champion Hurdle (the last run of his Order Of Merit winning campaign), he subsequently had a fantastic season as a novice chaser during which he was placed 4 times in graded company - including when a fine 2nd in a Grade 1 at Punchestown.

Sadly, injury has now probably ended his career, but he proved he was still as good as ever when 2nd on The Haldon Gold Cup earlier this season.

As for Lough Derg, I agree that his season end is starting to look a bit ugly but I can't really hold that against his connections. There's a lot of money at stake and I would do the same if he was mine. As long as the horse is fit and well, they have every right to run him.

I think the real issue is that The Order or Merit just isn't a very good idea. I support the aims of it, but nobody really gives a toss about who wins it (well, except me when I have had a bet on it) and it just seems to cause unwanted controversy and unrest among the cotton wool brigade.
 
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