P.I.G.S.
- Thread starter Soary Stars
- Start date
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Sheikh,
I have two issues with your post. One is you stating that the Greeks are going down. As Mel says, this is far from certain. The second is that you state that the Greeks are taking everybody down with them. If we go down, we will have nobody to blame but ourselves.
I have two issues with your post. One is you stating that the Greeks are going down. As Mel says, this is far from certain. The second is that you state that the Greeks are taking everybody down with them. If we go down, we will have nobody to blame but ourselves.
On The Bridle
At the Start
That type of sexual stereo-typing of a nation has no place on a forum like this!!:nono:
Sheikh
At the Start
Ah yes , I picked that up wrong I thought the Greek Government where rejecting the terms of the bail out I didn't realise they where rejecting the notion of the referendum. So not certain they're going down yet.
Like Mel I won't be taking any blame if we go down. I don't have any loans I can't repay etc and from what I gather from your posts you haven't been irresponsible either so i think It would be better if we blamed other people.
Like Mel I won't be taking any blame if we go down. I don't have any loans I can't repay etc and from what I gather from your posts you haven't been irresponsible either so i think It would be better if we blamed other people.
This Greek circus as I said before is just a charade hiding the disaster that is Italy. The bond yields this week have continually risen even with the insolvent ECB trying to stop this with large scale buying. They have reached records now and are at the point that the margin requirements to hold them will be increased which in turn means they will have to be sold further leading to a snowball effect. I personally think this is going to come to a head next week with the equity markets finally realising how overvalued they are.
The ECB isnt insolvent. Thats absolute rubbish. Either way, the markets have enough well informed sharp people trading to know what lies ahead and all the possible outcomes. this is factored into current prices. Markets are about predictions
There are some concerns about italy and their bond rates are currently very high but there havent been any serious suggestions that ive seen that it is a replica of Greece
Greece is 2% of the eu's gdp. It is (as was pointed out yesterday) the equivalent on Ohio being insolvent in the US market. Its not the end of the world.
Shares are at very low ratios at the moment which means that in isolation, they are cheap. I wouldnt be at all surprised to see the market heading back towards 6000 pretty quickly myself
There are some concerns about italy and their bond rates are currently very high but there havent been any serious suggestions that ive seen that it is a replica of Greece
Greece is 2% of the eu's gdp. It is (as was pointed out yesterday) the equivalent on Ohio being insolvent in the US market. Its not the end of the world.
Shares are at very low ratios at the moment which means that in isolation, they are cheap. I wouldnt be at all surprised to see the market heading back towards 6000 pretty quickly myself
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The ECB is insolvent It's holding so much sovereign debt that is worthless and in particular Greek debt. When Greece default they will have to have extra credit pumped in by the national governments. Why in the agreements for Greek haircuts was the ECB left out, for this exact reason.
Some concerns about Italy is an understatement! Why have the G20, IMF and ECB been running round like headless chickens this week putting in place strong monitoring in the country to make sure it carries out debt reduction? For this exact reason. It's a ticking time bomb.
Some concerns about Italy is an understatement! Why have the G20, IMF and ECB been running round like headless chickens this week putting in place strong monitoring in the country to make sure it carries out debt reduction? For this exact reason. It's a ticking time bomb.
Soary Stars
At the Start
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It (EU) is a house of cards that's served Germany & France well over the years.
All good things come to an end ... bad things do, too.
It'll probably break up under cover of some other dramatic events - a good day to publish bad news: that kind of 'day'.
And that's your cue, Mr Assad, unless we're much mistaken, isn't it?
Time to make your peace.
All good things come to an end ... bad things do, too.
It'll probably break up under cover of some other dramatic events - a good day to publish bad news: that kind of 'day'.
And that's your cue, Mr Assad, unless we're much mistaken, isn't it?
Time to make your peace.
Soary Stars
At the Start
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Berlusconi to quit ... spend time with family?
Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi today used Facebook to deny speculation he is set to quit, amid fears his country's struggling economy could spark a eurozone meltdown and drag Britain back into recession.
The 75-year-old was forced to intervene as the reports spread and the single currency's third-largest economy teetered on the brink of financial and political turmoil.
"Rumours of my resignation are baseless," he wrote after one ally said it was "a question of hours, some say of minutes" before he stood down.
The resignation rumours had boosted the country's stock market, which was left reeling when Rome's borrowing costs hit a 14-year high.
Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi today used Facebook to deny speculation he is set to quit, amid fears his country's struggling economy could spark a eurozone meltdown and drag Britain back into recession.
The 75-year-old was forced to intervene as the reports spread and the single currency's third-largest economy teetered on the brink of financial and political turmoil.
"Rumours of my resignation are baseless," he wrote after one ally said it was "a question of hours, some say of minutes" before he stood down.
The resignation rumours had boosted the country's stock market, which was left reeling when Rome's borrowing costs hit a 14-year high.
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Soary Stars
At the Start
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- 648
France cuts frantically as Italy nears debt spiral
France has unveiled the toughest austerity measures since World War Two despite the looming danger of a double-dip recession, vowing to slash borrowing by €65bn over the next five years in a last-ditch effort to save the country's AAA rating.
"We wish to protect the French against the grave problems facing other European countries. Bankruptcy is not an abstract word," said premier Francois Fillon.
The belt-tightening plan -- the second package since August, taking total cuts to €112bn -- include a 5pc super-tax on big firms, a rise in VAT on restaurants and construction, and cuts on pensions, schools, health, and welfare. It is the latest squeeze in a relentless campaign of fiscal tightening across the eurozone.
"It is like the 1930s: imposing austerity on countries already in recession is the way into a death spiral," said Danny Blanchflower, a former UK rate-setter.
Left-wing critics have evoked grim parallels with the "deflation decrees" of Pierre Laval in 1935 when France had to take ever harsher measures to preserve the country's viability on the Gold Standard, a gamble that ultimately set off violent street protests.
France's move came amid a further blizzard of grim data from Europe, confirming that most of the region is already on the cusp of recession. Growth has reached a "virtual standstill", said EU commissioner Olli Rehn.
The rest is at:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8875444/France-cuts-frantically-as-Italy-nears-debt-spiral.html
France has unveiled the toughest austerity measures since World War Two despite the looming danger of a double-dip recession, vowing to slash borrowing by €65bn over the next five years in a last-ditch effort to save the country's AAA rating.
"We wish to protect the French against the grave problems facing other European countries. Bankruptcy is not an abstract word," said premier Francois Fillon.
The belt-tightening plan -- the second package since August, taking total cuts to €112bn -- include a 5pc super-tax on big firms, a rise in VAT on restaurants and construction, and cuts on pensions, schools, health, and welfare. It is the latest squeeze in a relentless campaign of fiscal tightening across the eurozone.
"It is like the 1930s: imposing austerity on countries already in recession is the way into a death spiral," said Danny Blanchflower, a former UK rate-setter.
Left-wing critics have evoked grim parallels with the "deflation decrees" of Pierre Laval in 1935 when France had to take ever harsher measures to preserve the country's viability on the Gold Standard, a gamble that ultimately set off violent street protests.
France's move came amid a further blizzard of grim data from Europe, confirming that most of the region is already on the cusp of recession. Growth has reached a "virtual standstill", said EU commissioner Olli Rehn.
The rest is at:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8875444/France-cuts-frantically-as-Italy-nears-debt-spiral.html
Soary Stars
At the Start
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".... have been examining and re-examining the situation, trying to find the potential happy ending. It isn't there.
The euro zone is in a death spiral.
Markets are abandoning the periphery, including Italy, which is the world's eighth largest economy and third largest bond market. This is triggering margin calls and leading banks to pull credit from the European market. This, in turn, is damaging the European economy, which is already being squeezed by the austerity programmes adopted in every large euro-zone economy.
A weakening economy will damage revenues, undermining efforts at fiscal consolidation, further driving away investors and potentially triggering more austerity. The cycle will continue until something breaks.
Eventually, one economy or another will face a true bank run and severe capital flight and will be forced to adopt capital controls.
At that point, it will effectively be out of the euro area. What happens next isn't clear, but it's unlikely to be pretty."
The euro zone is in a death spiral.
Markets are abandoning the periphery, including Italy, which is the world's eighth largest economy and third largest bond market. This is triggering margin calls and leading banks to pull credit from the European market. This, in turn, is damaging the European economy, which is already being squeezed by the austerity programmes adopted in every large euro-zone economy.
A weakening economy will damage revenues, undermining efforts at fiscal consolidation, further driving away investors and potentially triggering more austerity. The cycle will continue until something breaks.
Eventually, one economy or another will face a true bank run and severe capital flight and will be forced to adopt capital controls.
At that point, it will effectively be out of the euro area. What happens next isn't clear, but it's unlikely to be pretty."
Soary Stars
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Here's the rest of it:
"Can this cycle be interrupted? I think so. I think that an ECB guarantee to backstop sovereign debt, coupled with massive purchases to establish credibility and a substantial easing in monetary policy, could change the dynamic, particularly if quickly followed up with a major fiscal commitment from core economies to support bail-out efforts and invest in peripheral economies while peripheral economies focus on substantial labour market, public-sector, and tax reforms. How likely does all of that sound? Could the ECB even commit to the above bold actions without facing debilitating criticism, and perhaps intervention, from national governments?
I hate to get this pessimistic about the situation. It feels panicky and overwrought. I can't believe that Europe would allow so damaging an outcome as a financial collapse and break-up to occur. And I still don't understand why, if this is all as obvious as it seems to me, equities aren't down 20% now, rather than 2% or 3%. But the window within which something could be done to prevent it is closing, and fast. I hope to be proven astoundingly wrong in my assessment, but I'm struggling to see alternative outcomes."
The by-line, if you can call it that, is:
Nov 9th 2011, 15:09 by R.A. | WASHINGTON
It's from this week's Economist, Grey.
"Can this cycle be interrupted? I think so. I think that an ECB guarantee to backstop sovereign debt, coupled with massive purchases to establish credibility and a substantial easing in monetary policy, could change the dynamic, particularly if quickly followed up with a major fiscal commitment from core economies to support bail-out efforts and invest in peripheral economies while peripheral economies focus on substantial labour market, public-sector, and tax reforms. How likely does all of that sound? Could the ECB even commit to the above bold actions without facing debilitating criticism, and perhaps intervention, from national governments?
I hate to get this pessimistic about the situation. It feels panicky and overwrought. I can't believe that Europe would allow so damaging an outcome as a financial collapse and break-up to occur. And I still don't understand why, if this is all as obvious as it seems to me, equities aren't down 20% now, rather than 2% or 3%. But the window within which something could be done to prevent it is closing, and fast. I hope to be proven astoundingly wrong in my assessment, but I'm struggling to see alternative outcomes."
The by-line, if you can call it that, is:
Nov 9th 2011, 15:09 by R.A. | WASHINGTON
It's from this week's Economist, Grey.
It seems a more than likely scenario to me. Already you have at least 4 countries who need to be pegged to a German hard currency like a hole in the head.
The hard part from ireland's perspective, is to manage our way out of it with the support of European allies and try and achieve a soft landing (where have we heard that before). I can't see Ireland getting out of this mess without growth. I can't see growth without a devalued currency relative to the euro.
The hard part from ireland's perspective, is to manage our way out of it with the support of European allies and try and achieve a soft landing (where have we heard that before). I can't see Ireland getting out of this mess without growth. I can't see growth without a devalued currency relative to the euro.
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I get the economist and its certainly no anti euro american mouthpiece.
Those of us who thought that not joining the euro would mean that we were somehow missing the boat (though not sure why) have been proved wrong. Simple as that. I like just about everyone in the Uk must be hugely relieved we didnt get dragged into this failed concept. the idea of bailing out arrogant lazy failed states is an too much to bear and given that the british have hardly ever been eu enthusiasts, membership and al the crap that would have come with it would have driven anti eu sentiment sky high. Rightly perhaps
Given whats occured its just so clear that greater political and fiscal union has to accompany currency union. Im not sure we would ever want that anyway
I recall that membership was pushed hard by Mandelson and fought against by Brown. For all his faults, GB called this one right (he was violently opposed) and we have to thank him for that. Goes without saying that the tories were largely against
Those of us who thought that not joining the euro would mean that we were somehow missing the boat (though not sure why) have been proved wrong. Simple as that. I like just about everyone in the Uk must be hugely relieved we didnt get dragged into this failed concept. the idea of bailing out arrogant lazy failed states is an too much to bear and given that the british have hardly ever been eu enthusiasts, membership and al the crap that would have come with it would have driven anti eu sentiment sky high. Rightly perhaps
Given whats occured its just so clear that greater political and fiscal union has to accompany currency union. Im not sure we would ever want that anyway
I recall that membership was pushed hard by Mandelson and fought against by Brown. For all his faults, GB called this one right (he was violently opposed) and we have to thank him for that. Goes without saying that the tories were largely against
walsworth
Journeyman
You don't think that we live in an arrogant, lazy, but not yet failed State?