Paddy Power Day 1 offer

Would rather bet 49 quid with Ladbrokes on something other than the jolly, and happily,, with pride intact, relinquish that money if my selection got beat.

This is nothing more than a free FOBT machine like bet, made for mugs who think bookies actually want to help us.

I'll try and beat the bastards in two weeks,, fair and square, through form anaylsis, judgement and experience.

I've had low days on betting, but the day I take part in one of these sad offers, is the day I'll need to have a long think..
Maybe I'm old fashioned...but i don't beleive in all this nostagic free bet bollox.

Maybe in ten years you'll think the same.....:) Who knows.

Not for me tho.
 
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I agree its shite Marble but when it was cash back it was literally printing money.
 
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Aye, fair do's. I respect the idea/initiative in a small way, but the principle of free bets still doesn't smell right...and it never will to me.
 
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This is about publicity of good will from corporate shiesters, thats the principle.

The jolly wil hack up here, no one will back it at those odds, not in a single. They (Paddy Power) won't lose that much.
 
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I'd argue that the 'mugs' are those that don't take advantage of these offers. If you think for one second that it's a level playing field between punter & bookie then you are sadly mistaken. I'll be trying to take every angle possible to try and maximise my profit. It's a 4 day dirty war, not a game of cricket. Do you think the bookies gave 2 sh1ts about pride?

I am perfectly aware that Paddy Power want my money to stay in their account for my next bet but if my bet on The Arkle goes to the wall I'd rather have that money back on Faugheen rather than fork out another £50. A 6 year old could figure that out.

It's not about pride or lack thereof, it's just common sense. When you go to the supermarket and it's BOGOF on Spam do you insist on paying for both so that when you tuck into your sandwich later you can eat it with pride?
 
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I guess i've always felt the idea was to beat the bookie, not work with the bookie to beat the bookie.

Each to their own.
 
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The problem with that statement Marb is that you started it with "I've always felt" :D

Objectively speaking, exploiting bookies offers is the right thing to do (if it suits the bets you want to have of course).
 
icebreaker said:
I would back the 2nd fav in the Arkle in 50 different shops , lay it 50 times on Betfair, and Lay UDS 50 times for 30 quid a time. :D
Guaranteed minimum 1.5 K, sewer-rat style.
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Sorry to spoil your party lads

Talking through a similar experience I won't bore you with I can tell you it's totally against the rules to place the same bet in multiple shops and if you do and they can prove it they simply won't pay you........Can't do you for fraud unless you actually except payment but if they wanted to they would allow you to pick up 3 or four bets then put the old bill on to you......How long would it take PP to pick up a pattern and check you out on camera?.........In this age of computers the times alone and the order of bets would set the alarm bells ringing and you'd be fluckeled.

As it means 50 free bets how far do you think you'd get before you were approached? Bookies may come across as being daft but everything you think of they fell out of bed laughing at it
 
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TheBear said:
Interesting that they've swerved Faugheen. Great offer though
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Even more interesting Ruby swerves him when he says 2 novices are his bet chance of winners...........Could it mean he doesn't fancy Faugheen as much as the punters seem to or does it mean he's going to ride Hurricane Fly?:blink:

Brave thing to say when there's no form line between Douvan and L'ami Serge.......unless of course he is as special as WPM says
 
Tanlic said:
Even more interesting Ruby swerves him when he says 2 novices are his bet chance of winners...........Could it mean he doesn't fancy Faugheen as much as the punters seem to or does it mean he's going to ride Hurricane Fly?:blink:

Brave thing to say when there's no form line between Douvan and L'ami Serge.......unless of course he is as special as WPM says
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Tbh I don't think this anything to do with Ruby at all. Paddy Power will have decided which two they're going to take on and then rung Walsh for a quote. What he says just makes good copy for their promotion. In fact they probably wrote it for him.
 
Walsh is on the Paddy Power payroll, Tanlic - in the loosest sense, at least.

The fact that PP don't have Faugheen in their Day One offer, is an indicator that they (via Walsh) don't want any part of taking him on.....or at least it's a stronger indicator than what Walsh says are his best chance of a winner on Day One.

Frankly, I wouldn't trust Ruby to confirm that the sky was up and the ground was down, and I will now be a bit gutted if something goes wrong with the jolly, he switches the The Fly, and denies Townend his shot.
 
Grasshopper said:
Walsh is on the Paddy Power payroll, Tanlic - in the loosest sense, at least.

The fact that PP don't have Faugheen in their Day One offer, is an indicator that they (via Walsh) don't want any part of taking him on......
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I interpret the offer differently to you then Grass.

When they take them on with this sort of offer then I assume it's the exact opposite, i.e. they want to lay everything else in the race and therefore are offering an incentive to back against the favorite.
 
I'd go along with Lee's rationale on this - PP are cornering much of the casual market, and there's enough juice in that to turn a profit, either way.
 
Good, sound commonsense spoken in your post, TheBear.


SlimChance said:
I agree its shite Marble but when it was cash back it was literally printing money.
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The replacement of cash-back with free bet is nothing more than a very minor complication.
You should still get around 90% of the free bet value as cash when you Back and Lay a horse above 5/1 using your free bet.
(e.g., Back a 12/1 horse £50; Lay same horse £46 @ 13.0 .............. £44 returned win or lose).
This Paddy offer is a good one, no argument.


Tanlic, the determined sharber maintains a modest wardrobe of camouflage accessories to exploit offers such as this -- false beard, dark glasses and blind-persons cane, wigs, etc etc. :D
(Personally, myself, I find Tranny and BDSM gear very effective for getting bets on in-shop).
 
wilsonl said:
I interpret the offer differently to you then Grass.

When they take them on with this sort of offer then I assume it's the exact opposite, i.e. they want to lay everything else in the race and therefore are offering an incentive to back against the favorite.
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Don't see that this is in conflict with what I said, Lee, given Faugheen isn't part of Powers Day One offer - I'm in total agreement with you, regarding Power's motivations.
 
Apologies if I sounded overly opinionated last night, I think the San Miguel may have got at me.:)
 
Just when you mentioned that the fact he wasn't in their offer was an indicator that they didn't want to take him on - when I would have thought that he would have been the (possibly sole) offer if that was strongly the case.

Anyhow, looks like we're both saying the same thing :cool:
 
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Let's look at this from a viewpoint that most punters will use this offer as intended, rather than as an arb opportunity.

If Douvan and/or UDS lose they are quids in. Everyone has come to them to back the outsiders and they only have to pay out on one whilst refunding sod all to the rest. Plus of course they keep all the money they've taken on the favs. Kerching

If Douvan/UDS win they're still golden. They'll have taken significantly less bets on the favs than other bookies and still has everyone else's money tied up with them.

I suppose the worst possible results in either scenario would be Faugheen winning after the other two won, because everyone will have ploughed their refunded bets into him. Willie will be on a roll and no one can see Faugheen getting beat. Even then though if either Douvan or UDS go in they'll definitely go shortest price Faugheen and will only be paying out on the profit only of a free bet. Essentially refunding the punters money or worse if Faugheen goes off shorter than evens.

In the Douvan/UDS losing scenario the worst results would be L'ami Serge & Vibrato Valtat winning as they'd have taken more bets on those two than anything else. However I'd still say they'd be well ahead, especially in the Supreme where there's quite a few alternatives to Douvan. Put simply the fav got beat. How can that possibly be bad for a bookie!

It's a brilliant piece of marketing which (Marble) does assist both the bookie and the mug punter ��. Bookmaking is currently a very competitive market which is always a good thing for the customer in any market place. They all want our money and they'll pull out all the stops to get it.

So in summary my view is that Paddy Power do want the favs beat but they're not overly arsed either way. Of course they'll portray anything but the sort in the media over the next week and a bit.
 
Tanlic said:
Sorry to spoil your party lads

Talking through a similar experience I won't bore you with I can tell you it's totally against the rules to place the same bet in multiple shops and if you do and they can prove it they simply won't pay you........Can't do you for fraud unless you actually except payment but if they wanted to they would allow you to pick up 3 or four bets then put the old bill on to you......How long would it take PP to pick up a pattern and check you out on camera?.........In this age of computers the times alone and the order of bets would set the alarm bells ringing and you'd be fluckeled.

As it means 50 free bets how far do you think you'd get before you were approached? Bookies may come across as being daft but everything you think of they fell out of bed laughing at it
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Well constructed essay but completely divorced from reality.
 
The essays on this this thread from both posters are absolute bollocks. Waste your energy working out things that you can profit from.
 
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