Paddy Power Gold Cup

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
18,955
Location
Leyland
I'm bored of Arc and Camelot talk now.

Best Prices and current BHA mark:

13/2 Grand Crus - 157
7/1 Hunt Ball - 157
8/1 Cue Card - 157
12/1 Menorah - 160
14/1 Aerial - 155
14/1 Champion Court - 156
14/1 Crystal Bonus - 152
14/1 Silvaniaco Conti - 155
14/1 Giant Bolster - 164
16/1 Divers - 140
16/1 For Non Stop - 151
16/1 Havingotascoobydo - 137
16/1 Michel Le Bon - 140
16/1 Roudoudou Ville - 152

20s Bar

Initial thoughts are that Champion Court and For Non Stop are the ones I'd want to be with and that the usual theme of the Jumps season is how horrendously priced most of Nicholls horses are. Aerial and Cristal Bonus are way too short.
 
Euronymous said:
I'm bored of Arc and Camelot talk now.
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:lol: Brilliant.

I think you would need to first understand how many of the above horses are likely runners. Anyone know?

You only mention 2 horses under 150. Does anyone have any stats on what the average rating of winner/placed horses is?
 
yeah Champion Court is something of a Cheltenham specialist isn't he?

anyway this race makes me wish Great Endeavour was still around to take part. RIP. :(
 
Hamm said:
I think you would need to first understand how many of the above horses are likely runners. Anyone know?

You only mention 2 horses under 150. Does anyone have any stats on what the average rating of winner/placed horses is?
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Last seven winners:

147
146
148
139
146
139
149
 
When connections indicated that TGB wasn't going to run again last season, there was no mention of the Paddy Power Gold Cup in this season's targets.

Owner Simon Hunt said:

"He's on his holiday now as he's got a big campaign coming up. We'll go into next season with the Betfair Chase, King George and Gold Cup in mind.

"Bridgy said he wouldn't be out of the first four [in the Gold Cup] and that Long Run wouldn't beat us again. He's come on so much. I don't think he's badly treated from his new mark of 164 but we don't want him lugging top weight in the Hennessy."
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I wonder will Menorah run. On the face of it, it would be a more suitable target than the Haldon Gold Cup.
 
Euronymous said:
Last seven winners:

147
146
148
139
146
139
149
Click to expand...

Thanks.

At the prices, very few of the above stand out unless others can be ruled out as not running.

A bit of work on this could lead to some nice prices on horses confirmed as targeting this race.
 
I would love to see Hunt Ball (a) run in, and (b) win this, through on the face of it he has a stiff mark and 7-1 is a terrible price. I just think he might resume the sharp improvement he showed last season.

Nicholls has a terrible record in this, and his are always overbet. I am still sad about the loss of Granit Jack - such a beautiful horse, lost just before he could fulfil his promise. Anyway, I digress. Put a line through the horses trained in Ditcheat. Does Pipe have anything lurking near the bottom of the weights?
 
@DavidPipeRacing
A lot of people have asked about Grands Crus - he will be entered in the P. Power and the Betfair, I will speak with owners before deciding
 
BennyB said:
I would love to see Hunt Ball (a) run in, and (b) win this, through on the face of it he has a stiff mark and 7-1 is a terrible price. I just think he might resume the sharp improvement he showed last season.

Nicholls has a terrible record in this, and his are always overbet. I am still sad about the loss of Granit Jack - such a beautiful horse, lost just before he could fulfil his promise. Anyway, I digress. Put a line through the horses trained in Ditcheat. Does Pipe have anything lurking near the bottom of the weights?
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Salut Flo :thumbsup:
 
Euronymous said:
Last seven winners:

147
146
148
139
146
139
149
Click to expand...


Think the third one in that list is 140 not 148

Previous winners of the Paddy Power since 2007 have been rated between 139-147 and carried below 11 stone and have all been 7 or 8.

2011: Great Endeavour = Age: 7 Weight: 10-3 Rated: 147
2010: Little Josh = Age: 8 Weight: 10-8 Rated: 146
2009: Tranquil Sea = Age: 7 Weight: 10-13 Rated: 140
2008: Imperial Commander = Age: 7 Weight: 10-7 Rated: 139
2007: L'Antartique = Age: 7 Weight: 10-13 Rated: 146
 
Paul Kealy makes an excellent case for Walkon in the Weekender today. Just unfortunate it seems connections want to go for a graduation chase.
 
davidjohnson said:
Paul Kealy makes an excellent case for Walkon in the Weekender today. Just unfortunate it seems connections want to go for a graduation chase.
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I have politely suggested that they might reconsider. ;)

I suggested either this or the Hennessy (unconvinced he wants 3m+) and apparently they are 'tempted'.
 
For Non Stop stands out. Apprently he is to be targeted at this - uncertainty at best around most above him in the market except Hunt Ball, who is too high anyway. 151 manageable if The Giant Bolster runs.

Looking at the others:
Hunt Ball - too high in weights
Grands Crus - uncertain runner
Cue Card - unlikely runner
Walkon - no idea why he is so short
Menorah - Haldon Gold Cup?
Salut Flo - out
Aeriel - too short
Silviniaco Conti - doesn't run here

When you look at the above, you would think For Non Stop could end up 6s on the day. Each way 1/4 odds first 4 could look a very good bet in a few weeks time.
 
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