Paddy Power Gold Cup

SS is a superstar and happy to watch in awe with an empty glass...

For Non Stop was one of my PP picks (a lttle but matched at 20/1) but think the handicap mark has been blown now
 
Solix is surely interesting for anyone considering backing Champion Court - had a nice pipe opener over hurdles on Friday that resulted in an easy win and was beaten 1 3/4 lengths by CC at this meeting last year in a Novices Chase over course and distance, there should be an 8lb turn around at the weights in Solix's favour for the PP too.
 
Euro, i would say Williams has made an absolute balls of things as he had a horse probably 15+ pounds well in for the Paddy Power, and ruined its amrk giving it no chance for a much smaller prize.
 
Winning a 37k race is hardly an "absolute balls up" - around a c/d that would suit him better than the Paddy Power, anway.
 
I know Tizzard has more-or-less ruled the race out, but it would be verging on criminal not to let Cue Card take his chance, imo.

Connections might be comfortably categorised as "Please, anyone but that pair", but there is very little to dislike about Cue Card's overall form last season. He was as highly-tried as any novice chaser, and the list of horses he was beaten by is pretty impressive.

Accounting for a reasonable degree of progression, his OR of 160 might not be quite so harsh as it once looked, and with no problems on track, trip or ground front, I think he could go well in the race.

Connections won't find out much in the Haldon, and are planning to step him up anyway. Concerns about how 'hard' the race is are a bit bogus, imo - and a thoroughly genuine and consistent sort like Cue Card shouldn't have any problems giving his running.

I've had a small dash at 30 in the miniscule hope that connections reconsider.

I've also backed Al Ferof for similar form reasons; though given he's 120 on Betfair, I can only assume he is either OFS or a different target has been declared (I honestly don't know).
 
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Bar the Bull said:
Yes. Old Roan is a very big prize. I find your comment very puzzling, Hamm. Strike while the iron is hot.
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The PP is more prestigous and more valuable; He can't win both, and it seems Williams didn't really know what he had.

Regardless, glad to see the horse win. Some very interesting second season chasers from 2.5m up, FNS, Cue Card, SDC, Flemenstar, Menorah, Al Ferof, Bob's Worth, Grand Crus, etc
 
Hamm said:
Euro, i would say Williams has made an absolute balls of things as he had a horse probably 15+ pounds well in for the Paddy Power, and ruined its amrk giving it no chance for a much smaller prize.
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I think he knows he had a horse on a very attractive mark but you have to remember this is a small operation with not that many horses. It's easier to pick and choose if you have 100's of inmates in your care. So, do you go for a virtually certain win in a race like the Old Roan or take a risk and run him in a Paddy Power that might have another Imperial Commander in it running off 139?
 
I think FNS could really be a major player this season. I remember the last horse to destroy a decent Old Roan field back in 2006. He's obviously progressed massively from last season's form - there could be loads more to come.
 
Len Madeiros said:
I think FNS could really be a major player this season. I remember the last horse to destroy a decent Old Roan field back in 2006. He's obviously progressed massively from last season's form - there could be loads more to come.
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Whoa there! :)
Horses of For Non Stop's experience don't suddenly "progress massively", and though I was pleased to see him win, there's little doubt the result flatters him greatly.
He's a horse who invariably goes well fresh, and beat a bunch of what were probably half-fit horses. Should go up around double figures on the strength of this win, and will consequently struggle to replicate it.
 
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reet hard said:
Whoa there! :)
Horses of For Non Stop's experience don't suddenly "progress massively", and though I was pleased to see him win, there's little doubt the result flatters him greatly.
He's a horse who invariably goes well fresh, and beat a bunch of what were probably half-fit horses. Should go up around double figures on the strength of this win, and will consequently struggle to replicate it.
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Some horses do improve massively and keep on improving. Two that spring to mind in the last few years and produced performances that defied previous expectations were last year's GC winner Synchronised and the flat track specialist Madison de Berlais. Previously "exposed" horses do sometimes find something extra that had never been seen before.
 
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Len
Synchronised improved just 4lbs (RPR) to win his Gold Cup, and though Madison Du Berlais improved more to win his Hennessy and KG, that was undoubtedly for the addition of cheekpieces. For Non Stop had no such reason, yesterday.


EC
Nick Williams quote, yesterday:
I think the course, the ground, the trip and the strong pace were in his favour today. .
Add that to his probably being one of the fittest in the field, then you back him off his new mark. I won't.
 
Reet - Synchronised's GC performance was on a different planet to his Welsh National win but I do take your point that FNS had a great deal in his favour yesterday. Do you think he will get 3 miles? I think he will.
 
reet hard said:
Len
Synchronised improved just 4lbs (RPR) to win his Gold Cup, and though Madison Du Berlais improved more to win his Hennessy and KG, that was undoubtedly for the addition of cheekpieces. For Non Stop had no such reason, yesterday.


EC
Nick Williams quote, yesterday:
I think the course, the ground, the trip and the strong pace were in his favour today. .
Add that to his probably being one of the fittest in the field, then you back him off his new mark. I won't.
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i think 160 is a fair reflection of the run..just on the clock..i think he will go above 160 so won't be backing him in a handicap..which i doubt he will see again anyway once reassessed
 
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Len/Euro

Another Nick William's quote:
"He is a good two and a half mile handicapper in the long run. He is going for the Jewson at Cheltenham but that said each race takes a bit out of him so we´ll see how he takes this race." (after the Scilly Isles, February).
The only time he tried 3m, he burst, even around a sharp Aintree.
The Peterborough may be an option, depending on the level (and fitness) of the opposition.
 
Reet

If you were the handicapper..what rating would you put him up to for yesterdays win?

I've got to be honest re any trainer quotes..i'd rather p1ss in the wardrobe than listen to them tbh..they just not my cup of tea.
 
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EC
FNS might have found 3 or 4lb of improvement yesterday, the rest was down to circumstance. He's probably still just a handicapper, though unlikely to be winning one anytime soon.
Anyone who disregards trainer's comments completely is either a fool, or the 2nd coming.
 
Reet, whilst I have some sympathy with the view that the form should be treated with a degree of caution, I'd be surprised if the rate of improvement in FNS wasn't considerably more than the "3-4 lbs" you suggest.

The winning distance might be misleading, but the manner of the performance was not. It was pretty-much everything you could have asked for beforehand without getting greedy.
 
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reet hard said:
EC
FNS might have found 3 or 4lb of improvement yesterday, the rest was down to circumstance. He's probably still just a handicapper, though unlikely to be winning one anytime soon.
Anyone who disregards trainer's comments completely is either a fool, or the 2nd coming.
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you think the handicapper will raise FNS 4 lb for winning by 23 lengths?...be an interesting one

If you can prove that trainers comments can show a profit then start a thread like Gigilo's and prove it...just saying people are fools for taking no notice proves bugger all.

I'll look forward to you proving me wrong over the coming months.
 
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