Lets see how this fares after todays bloodbath.... I've not been fashionable with this preview...
3.45 Ascot – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes
Estejo (Rated NA)
German raider who has won an Italian Group One, that is miles below what is required here and he’ll be trailing in long last.
Never On Sunday (Rated 91)
Hails from the on-fire Jean Claude-Rouget yard who seem to be winning every major race in France going at the moment. Won the Prix D’Ispahan last time on soft ground which represents his best form and speed figure and that sets a very high standard here. Also earned a rating of 90 infront of Russian Cross and Trincot last year but that form probably not as strong as the Ispahan.
Tartan Bearer (Rated 92)
Very talented colt who finished second in the Derby before going on to finish 3rd in the Irish equivalent. Made his seasonal debut at Sandown where he just got up to beat Pipedreamer in a very quick time but the times on that card were a bit topsy turvey and I suspect a figure of 92 could flatter him. Also, the second Pipedreamer went on to be put in his place in the Brigadier Gerard over the same course and distance and I think his price is more to do with his connections and his proximity to New Approach in the Derby, take that away and he has a moderate look to him.
Tazeez (Rated 91)
I’ll freely admit I have a soft spot for this horse but he has talent in bucket loads and has improved constantly over the past 12 months (if you excuse his latest run which I’ll explain in due course). Progressive handicapper last season culminating in the Cambridgeshire when he won at 25/1 in a frankly scintillating time (Rated 90). Made his reappearance over the same C&D in the Earl of Sefton at the Craven where he was 2nd favourite to Twice Over, again was very impressive in winning after being given a cracking ride by Richard Hills and showed that the horse is tactically versatile, that performance earned another big rating of 91. He then went to run in the Ispahan at Longchamp over 1m1f, the ground was very soft that day and he was never going a yard and eased right down when beat early in the straight. He is a lot better than that showing and his fast ground form is exceptional and I have no doubt he can make his mark in Group Ones at some point. That said, it is worth mentioning that all his wins have come at Newmarket and Yarmouth which suggests he isn’t a great traveler.
Trincot (Rated 91)
Posted a great figure when beating the Bogberry in a Longchamp Group Two in April but was beat easily by Never On Sunday and Vision D’Etat last season and can see no reason why he’ll get closer this year. Has joined Godolphin since his win in April and finished 2nd at the San Siro last month and that form looks below whats required here too.
Twice Over (Rated 89)
Winner of last years Craven and that is his best showing on the clock and was talked of future Guineas and Derby winner, never went on from that though and only won a weak French Group Two since then. His figures are well below whats required and whilst he posted a decent effort in the Lockinge on easy ground, he just doesn’t have the form required to be effective against Europe’s top 1m2f colts, especially on fast ground. How he’s shorter than Tazeez in the betting is a mystery.
Virtual (Rated 84)
Best performances have come over a mile in soft ground (Highlight being the Lockinge but not his best rating due to slow pace) and all his ratings are in those conditions. Steepped up to 1m2f here and is far from certain to get the trip, especially against this lot on fast ground. Even if the rain does come, he’ll still never get near Never On Sunday if there’s cut. Easily dismissed.
Vision D’etat (Rated 92)
Winner of the French Derby (88) and the Niel (91) before going on to post a decent 5th place in a good Arc (86). Made his debut this year behind Trincot in the Harcourt (88) at Longchamp where he never settled or looked comfortable and ran quite flat, bounced back from that to win the Ganay (92) which was a pretty messy and weak renewal and the proximity of Loup Breton and Thewayyouare worries me slightly. That was also over a further furlong and I wonder whether he perhaps needs a stiffer test than 1m2f now. Mendizabal replaced by Peslier here.
Conclusion
The front 3 in the market are there on merit and I think there are reasons to back all of them, that said there are reasons to oppose them all. They are all colts worthy of a place in this event and they have aspirations to be great middle distance colts but I think there are chinks in all their armour. Of the front three, I think Never On Sunday has the best chance as he has the best form and you oppose Jean Claude-Rouget at your peril at present but I think the horse possibly would like a bit more rain and he’s never ran with the word firm in the description (I appreciate this never happens in France). However whilst Never On Sunday is value against Tartan Bearer (A ridiculous 15/8) at 9/2, I simply can’t get away from Tazeez here. His record on fast ground is exceptional and he looked to be progressing all the time before the Ispahan which can be completely excused, whilst I recognise he doesn’t have the Group 1 form in the book and it’s a risk he won’t act away from Newmarket, he has posted times consistently which suggest he can be a player at this level and 25/1 is just a massive price for a horse of his potential.
Prediction
1st – Tazeez
2nd – Never On Sunday
3rd – Tartan Bearer
