Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Capri the Arc? you gotta be having a laugh.

Nothing about his form stands up to scrutiny..

His close races against Cracksman and Wings of Eagle puts him firmly in the 2nd division.

John Gosden reckoned Cracksman was never 100% that season and the Derby winner was packed off to stud before his rep went don the drain.

His best performance came at Donnie but no one took his challenge in the Arc seriously and he trailed in near the rear at 20/1.

Now after along absence he put up a performance that had do not for for the Arc written all over it.

He may well end up a cup horse but he wouldn't win an Arc with a rocket tied to his ass.

He must be odds on not to run
 
Tanlic said:
Capri the Arc? you gotta be having a laugh.

Nothing about his form stands up to scrutiny..

His close races against Cracksman and Wings of Eagle puts him firmly in the 2nd division.

John Gosden reckoned Cracksman was never 100% that season and the Derby winner was packed off to stud before his rep went don the drain.

His best performance came at Donnie but no one took his challenge in the Arc seriously and he trailed in near the rear at 20/1.

Now after along absence he put up a performance that had do not for for the Arc written all over it.

He may well end up a cup horse but he wouldn't win an Arc with a rocket tied to his ass.

He must be odds on not to run
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On the wind up again I take it ?
Generally a horse that runs in a legitimate Arc trial wouldn't be odds on not to run in the race itself.
And id rather be holding a 40/1 E/W docket on Capri than
11/10 on Enable but each to there own I suppose.
 
Capri was coming off a five-months-plus break and was rated 120 going into this season.

Assuming one of his G1 entries is a serious target, I reckon it is fair to assume someone as meticulous as AOB would not wish to leave that target behind last weekend by having a hard race. He was beaten 6.5 lengths which can be called around 10lbs so that's all he'll need to improve to be alongside Waldgeist. Waldgeist will probably come on for the run as well but perhaps not by as much.

It's all personal interpretation but I imagine AOB would have been more than satisfied with Capri's run after such a long break. He wasn't given a hard time of it so shouldn't bounce. I don't think it's unreal to suggest they should be closer to each other in the betting than 9/1 and 40/1.

I'm not saying Capri will win. It's more about whether his odds are a true reflection of his chances. If he's really a 10/1 shot it's still 1/10 that he won't win so to insist that he won't/can't win is no more than stating the obvious.
 
Looks a very ordinary Group 3 but he is also entered on Sunday over 2 miles which should give an indication on what they are considering doing.
 
fonz said:
On the wind up again I take it ?
Generally a horse that runs in a legitimate Arc trial wouldn't be odds on not to run in the race itself.
And id rather be holding a 40/1 E/W docket on Capri than
11/10 on Enable but each to there own I suppose.
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As I just said he may be aimed at 2 mile races and that trial would have most thinking he doesn't have the speed for an Arc. He was off the bridle 5 furlongs from home and couldn't stay with them. That's too far from home to be blaming lack of fitness.

As for a 40/1 docket to me it's a 7/2 docket at best as he can't possibly win. I would much rather be holding a 200 bet with 888 at 2/1 on Enable offerrd after her comeback You have 100 ew 1/5th the odds you get 900 back if he's in the first 3. More chance of Enable winning than Capri placing let alone winning and if you disagree why didn't you take 74/1 on the machine instead of 40/1 and ask around 8/1 a place?
 
She didn't have much to prove tbf. Only that she'd that she still had 4 legs, and could run a reasonable race after 11 month's absence. That she ran within 4lbs of her best RPR speaks volumes for her chances, though I wouldn't be rushing to back her at current prices.
 
I will be at Longchamp on Sunday with the fragrant Mrs An Capall if anybody wants a hello. I plan to buy a finish line ticket for €75. I notice there is a €15 Euro ticket which should do her nicely. If anybody is knocking around I normally land the exacta in the last and will be happy to share the numbers.
 
an capall said:
I will be at Longchamp on Sunday with the fragrant Mrs An Capall if anybody wants a hello. I plan to buy a finish line ticket for €75. I notice there is a €15 Euro ticket which should do her nicely. If anybody is knocking around I normally land the exacta in the last and will be happy to share the numbers.
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is a bumper the last race?
 
an capall said:
I will be at Longchamp on Sunday with the fragrant Mrs An Capall if anybody wants a hello. I plan to buy a finish line ticket for €75. I notice there is a €15 Euro ticket which should do her nicely. If anybody is knocking around I normally land the exacta in the last and will be happy to share the numbers.
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I’ll be in the finish line stand with the missus and another couple of couples AC. I’ll PM you my phone number should you wish to come say hello.
 
wilsonl said:
I’ll be in the finish line stand with the missus and another couple of couples AC. I’ll PM you my phone number should you wish to come say hello.
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Thanks W. I look like Colin Farrell so I should be easy to spot. Actually, we both do.
 
The draw

1 - Clincher 2 - Patsacoy 3 - Nelson 4 - Capri 5 - Tiberian 6 - Enable 7 - Salouen 8 - Talismanic 9 - Cloth Of Stars 10 - Way To Paris 11 - Neufbosc 12 - Hunting Horn 13 - Waldgeist 14 - Kew Gardens 15 - Sea Of Class
 
No surprise to see Cracksman miss the race. No way he was ever going to run I reckon unless Enable missed the race.
 
I reckon Ryan is on the right one in Kew Garden but if John Gosden didn't think Enable was spot on like Cracksman she wouldn't be going.

The very fact that Sea of Class is 2nd fav makes me think Enable is already past the post barring accidents.....Also Kew Gardens at around 6/4 to be in the first 4 looks a good bet to me

I would say there must be less taxing even money bets out there but there is only one Arc
 
The Japanese have the best 'long shot', 'each way', or back-to-lay in running horse, in the shape of Clincher. His best runs abroad have tended to be in valuable Group 1's, as opposed to Group Two's and Three's. He can place on firm or soft ground, so conditions somewhere in the middle, like good or good to soft should be perfect. I'd forgive and forget the last run, as it was unlike his usual consistent self. He made most of the running before stopping a furlong or so out. However, I fancy he will run a storming race tomorrow at Longchamp and out run odds of around 66/1.
 
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Possibly not up to the standard of last year's Arc, and it's unlikely any of these will trouble Enable. Bound to be plenty of pace though, with the Coolmore clan trying to set the race up for Kew Gardens - who has a more than reasonable chance of placing,imo.
 
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