Prix Jacques le Marois

How can a horse be 'on the downgrade' when she still beats everything she competes against, bar CANFORD CLIFFS and IMMORTAL VERSE? She hasn't slipped out of graded company, which would signify a downgrade (like THE TATLING!). She hasn't beaten beach donkeys, she's beaten serious contenders with fine personal records. Maths doesn't do it for me. Results do. But we all have our different ways of looking at upgrades, plateauing, and downgrading, I guess.
 
At her very best she'd have beaten both those two horses. It's not a slight on her by any means - Denman has been on the downgrade for a couple of years - but he still manages to get second in Gold Cup's.
 
Errrmm - Denman's almost twice the age of Goldikova, and entitled to be on the downgrade, They are both horses, aren't they?
Immortal Verse joins an illustrious list of horses to finish in front of Goldikova over 1m at the top level - just her, Zarkava, Makfi and Canford Cliffs in 17 races - which may point more to IV's improvement, rather than G's regression.
 
6yo filly on the flat - 11yo staying chaser. I'd say they were equally entitled to be a bit past it in the context of the radically different spheres they operate in.

I wouldn't be putting IV in the same class as the other animals you mentioned just yet. Sahpresa holds the form down for me.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
Surely the proximity of Sahpresa in her two most recent starts prove she is on the downgrade?

Sahpresa was only a 119/120 horse last year and most on here agree that Goldikova was a high 120s horse last year. Unless Sahpresa has improved from 5 to 6 then the evidence surely suggests that Goldikova is on the downgrade given her proximity to horses who have been rated lower than here in the past?

The ground is a total red herring too, it was officially Good to Soft (times today suggest it was this description at absolute worst) and she won the Marois in 2009 (possibly one of the greatest performances by a miler of all time) on soft ground then.

It's always hard to accept these legends are regressing (look at Kauto Star over jumps) but in my opinion, she is slightly. Not to say I don't think she can't win another BC Mile though where conditions and opposition will be very much in her favour.
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I am afraid your post is inaccurate re the ground - in 2009 the ground was good and she won in 1.33.50 according to the RP
 
The 2009 Jacques le Marois was the fastest ever running.

The 2008 Moulin was the third fastest running in the past twenty years. All of Goldikova's great performances seem to have been on fast ground. Such as the two mentioned above, and the Queen Anne in 2010 which was over a second below standard. And of course the three Breeders' Cup miles on firm ground.

The times of this year's race suggest that the ground was on the slow side of good to soft, I reckon. It was the 17th fastest running in the last 30 years.

I think that the ground was a bit too slow for Goldikova. But I also believe that she would have won the race a few years ago. She is on the downgrade in my opinion. This is not surprising, as she is a six year old mare, in her fifth season, and with 25 races under her belt, 21 of these Group or Grade 1 races.

Quite why the belief that she would need to slip out of graded compnay to be on the downgrade is unclear to me. People found it very hard to believe that Kauto and Denman were on the downgrade back in the day. Moscow Flyer was a similar story, as was Rooster Booster.

We don't see it on the flat so often, because connections are usually keen to move their asset to stud before the cracks start to show. The only top class six-year-old mare that I rememeber in training as a 6yo was Soviet Song, and she was a stone below her best in her final year. Peeress connections only gave her one race as a 6yo. Sahpresa I suppose is holding her form, but she is on the go a lot less than Goldi.
 
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Quite why the belief that she would need to slip out of graded compnay to be on the downgrade is unclear to me.
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Downgrade = dropping down to a lower grade. She is certainly not at that stage where she needs to do that, therefore downgrade is not the right term.

Is she at the start of a decline? Maybe
 
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Bar the Bull said:
The 2009 Jacques le Marois was the fastest ever running.

The 2008 Moulin was the third fastest running in the past twenty years. All of Goldikova's great performances seem to have been on fast ground. Such as the two mentioned above, and the Queen Anne in 2010 which was over a second below standard. And of course the three Breeders' Cup miles on firm ground.

The times of this year's race suggest that the ground was on the slow side of good to soft, I reckon. It was the 17th fastest running in the last 30 years.

I think that the ground was a bit too slow for Goldikova. But I also believe that she would have won the race a few years ago. She is on the downgrade in my opinion. This is not surprising, as she is a six year old mare, in her fifth season, and with 25 races under her belt, 21 of these Group or Grade 1 races.

Quite why the belief that she would need to slip out of graded compnay to be on the downgrade is unclear to me. People found it very hard to believe that Kauto and Denman were on the downgrade back in the day. Moscow Flyer was a similar story, as was Rooster Booster.

We don't see it on the flat so often, because connections are usually keen to move their asset to stud before the cracks start to show. The only top class six-year-old mare that I rememeber in training as a 6yo was Soviet Song, and she was a stone below her best in her final year. Peeress connections only gave her one race as a 6yo. Sahpresa I suppose is holding her form, but she is on the go a lot less than Goldi.
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I think this post together with Greys sums it up, she is on the decline and the form suggests so. She would have battered yesterdays field two years ago on any ground.

Apologies for getting my times muddled up with the 2009 Marois but the fact is that all French ground descriptions are given out softer than the official going 90% of the time. One only needs to look at the Arc times over the past ten years to see how ridiculous French going descriptions are. I've yet to calculate the ground through my formula for yesterday but a brief glance suggests it was Good to Soft at worst, she has dispatched fields as good as yesterdays on Good to Soft ground with ease in the past.
 
Is Kauto still capable of winning at Grade 1 level? Probably not.

Is Goldikova still capable of winning another Gr 1? Without a doubt
 
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