QM Champion Chase betting

Tout Seul

Tout Seul

Senior Jockey
Joined
May 2, 2003
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In recent days there has been a significant contraction in the odds for Balder Success. Some of this can surely be attributed to the injury to SDG but the price for Sprinter Sacre is also moving out. I noticed the odd shape of the book a few days ago but having decided that Hills were out of line with their price of 14/1 for BS did not take some because I am of the opinion that BS and Cheltenham does not seem to work. His performance at the course is way below his best level. The betting movements indicate that a lot of people disagree with my view.

It may be simply that with questions about SS plus the SDG injury someone has seen a possible play. I can't see any horse that I feel would have a real chance of winning. Any thoughts?
 
One horse I would like to see tried over 2 miles is Don Cossack.
Taken to the front over 2m 4f at Down Royal lately he had his opponents beaten a long way from home.
One Man , Micko's Dream and Big Zeb are three top 2 milers that had run and won top staying chases from Hennesseys to Thystes Chases in the case of the first two before showing improved form over 2 miles. Don may fit this bill also with the big big guns absent .
 
Gawd forbid SS doesn't make it but if it is the case and SDG is also an absentee then step forward ??????

You wouldn't need to look too for the winner if Nicky Henderson were of the opinion Simonsig wouldn't get the Gold Cup trip. He would simply drop the grey back to 2 miles and bypass the less valuable Ryanair.

Failing that everything goes to plan and he keeps winning impressively without the big 3 the QMCC will be one very ordinary event and the 250K prize very tempting.


As far as Balder Succes goes he is dependant on the wheels falling off half the possibles and that is a bigger a risk as backing Sprinter Sacre who will be odds on if he runs at and wins at Sandown..........IMO a wait and see policy should be adopted.....If Sprinter Sacre is declared to run in the Tingle Creek grab all the QMCC 3/1 you can get because Nicky won't run him unless he is certain he will win..........then the worlds your oyster.....lay him off or sit and wait until March
 
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Balder took a while to get his jumping sorted out...so i wouldnt read too much into that form at Cheltenham. With the front two perhaps not going he was a stand out bet last week. Only fly could be if they decide to bring Vautour to this!
 
Tout Seul said:
In recent days there has been a significant contraction in the odds for Balder Success. Some of this can surely be attributed to the injury to SDG but the price for Sprinter Sacre is also moving out. I noticed the odd shape of the book a few days ago but having decided that Hills were out of line with their price of 14/1 for BS did not take some because I am of the opinion that BS and Cheltenham does not seem to work. His performance at the course is way below his best level. The betting movements indicate that a lot of people disagree with my view.

It may be simply that with questions about SS plus the SDG injury someone has seen a possible play. I can't see any horse that I feel would have a real chance of winning. Any thoughts?
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I am of similar opinion on Balder Success and believe he prefers flatter tracks thus Aintree will be his main target. King also has the Mcmanus yolk and I was quite impressed with him at the PPower meeting and with McManus having no other real options for the race I feel this is now going to be his target. I have him and Iam still hopeful of my old voucher on Champagne Fever(though a fading hope) . Now is the time to have a few quid e/way as it very much smoke and mirrors with Sprinter.
 
That's too many ifs Digger.

If Sprinter Sacre doesn't come back,

If Sire De Grugy doesn't get over his ailment in time.

If Simonsig doesn't fill in for Sprinter Sacre

If Vatour is not rerouted

Then there's the fact that with nothing to scare off the opposition around 15 to 20 will turn up.

Who knows what might turn up..Al Ferof? Champagne Fever? Somersby? SimplY Ned? etc Plus a couple of Irish challengers no doubt

I think he's a good horse but his Aintree win didn't exactly come in top class company and he has been beaten twice since.

If none of the top 4 possibles turn up any one of a dozen are capable of winning a very ordinary QMCC on their day.

To me there are no outstanding bets in the race and it's now a no bet race.

At least until we know for sure what likely to turn up because if SS does anyone else who has backed something else will have done their money.
 
I have heard of something going on with SS but the person that told us wouldn't elaborate, and I don't really want to break a confidence by repeating what he did actually say. But I'm not surprised to hear that his price is drifting; it makes more sense of what I assumed at the time.
 
NJH reluctance to commit Sprinter Sacre to the Tingle Creek makes me think all's not entirely well. Then again it might just be he doesn't want his comeback run to be on heavy ground. I for one hope he does turn up as the sport desperately needs its superstars. But I reckon the bet must be Vautour to win any race. He'd have a right chance in this without SS or SDG and a favourite's chance in either of the novice races
 
I backed Balder on 12th November when news of Grugy's injury came through.......got a few sheckels away between 16.5 and 15.0, so nothing particularly fancy, but I'm not convinced SS and/or SDG will make the Festival.....and if they do, it might not be in the kind of form we're used to seeing.
 
If I've heard it once, I heard it at least 10 times from Multiple sources on this Forum, that Balder Succes is a 'Flat Track Bully'.
I just can't be having that ! Since he has been chasing he has won on both flat and undulating tracks.
His chasing debut at Chepstow was extremely impressive over 2m 4f on an undulating track.
His 2nd chase start at Cheltenham over 2m, he traveled and jumped really well, until a novicey mistake brought him down 2 out.
But there was no question in my mind that he more than handled the undulating track here.
Yes, after that he has wins on flat tracks Warwick & Kempton but his final start of last season was in Punchestown.
Another undulating track... Watch that race again. He traveled, jumped and handled the track perfectly.
He was only beaten less than a length and I personally feel this was mainly due to the battle up front with Champagne Fever.
But look at the result... CF was a further 15 L behind at the finish. So he handled it better than CF that day anyway!
Now, his seasonal reappearance, Gods Own beat him again fair and square by 5 L at Exeter, a very undulating track.
While BS was 5 L 2nd to GO, he finished 5 L clear of 172 rated Cue Card and 30 L clear of 164 rated Somersby.
I'm highly aware this was first run of the season for almost all in this race and excuses could be made for all of them I'm sure.
And I'm not reading too much into this result, just highlighting that it was Not an undulating track that got Balder Succes beaten.
Maybe Gods Own is just a better horse full stop and will prove this again this season. That I'm not so sure about.
But what I am sure about is that an undulating track would not put me off backing Balder Succes in the future.
 
edgt said:
One horse I would like to see tried over 2 miles is Don Cossack.
Taken to the front over 2m 4f at Down Royal lately he had his opponents beaten a long way from home.
One Man , Micko's Dream and Big Zeb are three top 2 milers that had run and won top staying chases from Hennesseys to Thystes Chases in the case of the first two before showing improved form over 2 miles. Don may fit this bill also with the big big guns absent .
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Big Zeb never ran in a top staying chase. As a novice he swept to the front in the Moriarty before running out of steam up the run in and passed by J'y Vole. He was also outstayed in a Powers Gold Cup if I remember correctly.
 
Tout Seul said:
In recent days there has been a significant contraction in the odds for Balder Success.
Click to expand...

The Bettrends AntePost service put this up as a bet on Monday evening, so that would account for some of it I'd say
 
thehorsesmouth said:
Big Zeb never ran in a top staying chase. As a novice he swept to the front in the Moriarty before running out of steam up the run in and passed by J'y Vole. He was also outstayed in a Powers Gold Cup if I remember correctly.
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The Moriarty was the race I was thinking of thanks.
An odd race to run a novice in if you were sure he did not stay; not Colm Murphy's style by a long way .

Comment on Don Cossack though; am I barking up the wrong tree ?
 
Balder's record round Chelters is horrible. Reminds me of Twist Magic, but I wouldn't necessarily say he's a flat track bully though. He beat the Romford Pele at Chesptow, and that's a bloody rollercoast, and he's won a Kingmaker and come second in the Haldon Gold Cup. I think the stronger correlation is with field size. Ever since he fell in the Triumph (and fell badly too) he's looked nervous in bigger fields

8 runners or more = UR, 16, 8, UR, 5, 5, 4, 3 (some of these he was entitled to win) but for a prospective Champion Chaser to be 0-1-7 is shocking
7 runners or less = 3, 1, 3, 1, F, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 2 (the fifth place was in the Tingle Creek when AK's horses were badly out of sorts)

His course record alone though would be enough to put me off, and as a few of you have speculated, he's going to need the big guns to turn up in order to scare the cavalry away. If they do turn up, then he's beaten on class. I don't see that he has a hand to play on either scenario, and right now I'd be far from certain he's runner anyway
 
Here's one from left field... Croco Bay. It isn't in the betting but I would be tempted if it turned up. I could write an essay on why but no point in jumping the gun for now.
 
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Tout Seul said:
In recent days there has been a significant contraction in the odds for Balder Success. Some of this can surely be attributed to the injury to SDG but the price for Sprinter Sacre is also moving out. I noticed the odd shape of the book a few days ago but having decided that Hills were out of line with their price of 14/1 for BS did not take some because I am of the opinion that BS and Cheltenham does not seem to work. His performance at the course is way below his best level. The betting movements indicate that a lot of people disagree with my view.

It may be simply that with questions about SS plus the SDG injury someone has seen a possible play. I can't see any horse that I feel would have a real chance of winning. Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

There are two things are at play. Bookmakers are protecting themselves from the distinct possibility that Sprinter Sacre may not run this season and that Sire De Grugy might not run before Cheltenham. On the other hand punters are scrambling around grabbing any number they can get on horses they feel are likely to run and speculating on horses who on ability have the scope to go off very short if they were rerouted to the race. This is not a solid or fully formed market and bookmakers have little confidence in their prices. Personally I would take 16/1 Uxizandre and see what happens.

I have €1000/€120 Balder Success for the Tingle Creek but I also have €600/€400 Sprinter Sacre. I placed these bets when SDG went on a walk on Betfair.
 
Sprinter Sacre officially out of Tingle Creek.

NJH "Sprinter Sacre is just not ready. He's done two canters, do two tomorrow and something on Saturday."

NJH also Saying that Simonsig will miss the Peterborough and might miss the King George too. "He wouldn't be the most robust."
 
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