Queen Anne Stakes (group 1)

Originally posted by Charlie D+Jun 11 2008, 04:27 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Charlie D @ Jun 11 2008, 04:27 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Euronymous@Jun 11 2008, 02:58 PM

. He is favourite simply because of who his trainer is.
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He's fav because the majority are seeing what i am seeing, just like the majority saw what i saw before Lockinge, just like the majority saw what Suny saw with Getaway before Coronation


If you think we are interpreting what we see wrong then lay away imo [/b][/quote]
Thing is though, the majority usually lose. I wont lay Haradusun but i`m taking him as well as Tariq and Cesare on because they are shorter than they should be.
 
The majority do lose Euro, but as you know, the majority can also be bang on the money too a lot of the time
 
Anyone have any views on Linngari? I see the horse has been reunited with Sir Michael Stoute
 
Thanks Rory, I was looking for more of a debriefing on the characteristics of the horse as I know there are people who know lots and lots and I havn't seen anything of him in dubai.

What in particular makes him have no chance, can't travel, hasn't got a turn of foot, won't handle the ground?
 
Apologies Martin ~ I was being rather flippant! My impresion of Linngari is that he is a horse who is ideally suited by Nad Al Sheba as well as being utterly exposed; on top of that he's already been prepped for a UAE campaign and I believe that horses who are going to win at Royal Ascot should be prepped entirely for that.
 
I wouldn't be surprised to see him sneak a place, but at best price 9s he's hardly an e/w proposition.
 
I think the French will own this, it wouldn't surprise me if they got the 1-2-3 with Darjina and Sageburg in the line-up and the one that interests me is Spirito Del Vento, who looks huge at 20/1 for this. Ascot should suit him very well and he won a Group 3 last weekend in a very decent time.
 
Originally posted by martin@Jun 11 2008, 10:34 PM

What in particular makes him have no chance, can't travel, hasn't got a turn of foot, won't handle the ground?
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No reason he should beat Darjina based on last year`s Moulin.
 
Darjina is very ground dependent, anything slower than good then she gets beat. The faster it is, the further she wins by in my opinion.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous+Jun 11 2008, 10:14 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Euronymous @ Jun 11 2008, 10:14 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-martin@Jun 11 2008, 10:34 PM

What in particular makes him have no chance, can't travel, hasn't got a turn of foot, won't handle the ground?
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No reason he should beat Darjina based on last year`s Moulin. [/b][/quote]
Well she was getting 8 pound from Linngari that day and that was enough to get Ramonti and George Washington beat aswell. It'll only be 3 pound on Tuesday, and if I was sure she'd improved from three to four then I wouldn't be worried about her, but she couldn't put away Sageburg last time who I don't think is going to turn out to be a top class miler; How that one handles firm ground at Ascot is anyone's guess, and I'd probably be thinking the same about Darjina aswell. As for Cesare, well he clearly loves Ascot and i'd give him a place chance, but looking at his form just now it appears a group one might be beyond his reach (?) and he'll always find one too good on the day. Not a strong bet for me but at the prices (despite what that shrewdy Rory says) and depending what the vibes are I might back Linngari for interest's sake. When he won that handicap off 118 a couple of starts ago he put away a godolphin horse who went on to win a couple of valuable races and also good old Appalachian Trail who won a listed race at Haydock the other day. Don't get me wrong it was only a handicap and only probably good enough to win a group 3 contest in this country but it doesn't hurt to see another British horse like A.Trail come out and win. I'm not particulary taken with the form of Linngari, more trying to make a case for that legend Stoute not taking one back unless it was capable!

I'd take Linngari over Darjina in a match bet anyday!
 
Originally posted by betsmate@Jun 11 2008, 10:27 PM
Darjina is very ground dependent, anything slower than good then she gets beat. The faster it is, the further she wins by in my opinion.
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Betsmate, you say Darjina needs good ground, but what she is likely to encounter at Ascot could be firm? (sorry I havn't checked the latest goings) and she's never been on that before, and has already been beaten at short odds at the track before.
 
If ti's good to soft now then it will prob be good on the day
As someone mentioned above, hasn't Darjina only run ont he round course before, and isn't this on the straight mile? - They aren't really comparable tracks - something of which always to be wary with Ascot form
I've had a small interest in Spirito del Vento too, just because I think it's a very open race and he has as much chance as any of them at a better price!
 
Originally posted by martin@Jun 12 2008, 10:29 AM
and she's never been on that before, and has already been beaten at short odds at the track before.
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Darjna being beaten on this track before is totally irrelevent and a mistake people make most year`s with the Queen Anne. This race is run on the straight course and her defeats
last year were over the old mile.

I see all the mug money is coming for Sageburg. I`m almost tempted to do a Segal and say if that wins i`ll give up the game. The thing has never even run over a mile ffs.
 
The thing has never even run over a mile ffs.
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He's reminiscent of Valixir, who did run over a mile at 2 (Sageburg didn't get a chance at 2), but was then tried over middle distances before being brought back to win the d'Ispahan and Queen Anne.
 
Originally posted by martin@Jun 12 2008, 10:24 AM

As for Cesare, well he clearly loves Ascot and i'd give him a place chance, but looking at his form just now it appears a group one might be beyond his reach (?) and he'll always find one too good on the day.
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After viewing the Lockinge again i`ve change my mind about him. Like Tariq he came from the back in that race but whereas the latter came straight though the pack Cesare was switched and had to cover more ground. If he`s ever to win a Group1 it will be at his favourite course and i think the slow pace didn`t suit him last year. The front three are all such poor value for one reason or another that i`m gonna go in mob handed with FB, Darjina and Cesare.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Jun 12 2008, 10:51 PM
Subsequent Moulin & QEII winner back in third?
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Ah Starcraft. Point taken, but that was his first run over here and he did improve come late summer.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous+Jun 12 2008, 09:17 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Euronymous @ Jun 12 2008, 09:17 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-martin@Jun 12 2008, 10:29 AM
and she's never been on that before, and has already been beaten at short odds at the track before.
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Darjna being beaten on this track before is totally irrelevent [/b][/quote]
Actually Euro, it could be relevant

Coronation

tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong

QEII

held up, ridden over 2f out, no impression



Need to go and watch video's, but going by the above, it seems the straight is where Darjina falls apart


And if i remember correctly, It is the part of the track where FB fell apart too


Could this be why Ceasre seems to run so well there



Interesting innit??



Can't remember exactly what he stated, but R Hoiles has a theory that the straight track acts like a floating carpet and some horses just can't handle it
 
Originally posted by Euronymous+Jun 12 2008, 09:52 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Euronymous @ Jun 12 2008, 09:52 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-martin@Jun 12 2008, 10:24 AM

As for Cesare, well he clearly loves Ascot and i'd give him a place chance, but looking at his form just now it appears a group one might be beyond his reach (?) and he'll always find one too good on the day.
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After viewing the Lockinge again i`ve change my mind about him. Like Tariq he came from the back in that race but whereas the latter came straight though the pack Cesare was switched and had to cover more ground. If he`s ever to win a Group1 it will be at his favourite course and i think the slow pace didn`t suit him last year. The front three are all such poor value for one reason or another that i`m gonna go in mob handed with FB, Darjina and Cesare. [/b][/quote]
After viewing bits and pieces of his form (and I should have known this by heart by now) it's clear that if you give Cesare a moderate pace he's held up and puts his races to bed- Give him a strong pace especially in a group one and he can't make up the required ground. So for me everything to do with his chance will be determined by the pace, if it's moderate, and judging by the fact I can't see any front runners (despite the fact O Brien has 3 in with the 2 French horses likely to turn up aswell) then he would obviously have a massive chance, if something sets a decent gallop then the form book tells me he won't be able to cope and win a group one run at a group one pace.
 
Some very shrewd observations here guys - it's looking more and more like a 'no bet' race for me, though my strategy next week is to concentrate on Placepots so I'd better have some clue :dork:
 
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