ho ho. It's not my argument though, just an aspect of it. Great to have you back btw. I hope they eat you in Paris!
Road to the 1000 Guineas
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
ho ho. It's not my argument though, just an aspect of it. Great to have you back btw. I hope they eat you in Paris!
I appreciate the advice Grey. I was wondering where to start...
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
In a sample size of 17?! Come on Steve, you know full well that it could purely be coincidence.
Regarding the times, look who ran the fastest 3 final sections in the 1000 Guineas, not to mention the first fastest sectional....
http://www.newmarketracecourses.co.uk/uploaded_files/sun_race_3.pdf
B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
Thanks for that Gamla Stan!
Do you have the 2000 Version?
Looks like Ryan Moore went off quick and gave the impression he was going to go act as pacemaker but cheekily he's given his horse a breather throughout the middle part of the race whilst the others were heavily restraint under the impression she would fold instead she was filling up her lungs and she's sprinted for home with the others unable to do anything - you simply can't do anything the way Ryan has rode her!
Hats of to Ryan there, would be interesting if he's gone against tactics from Aidan there - he's seen an opportunity to win a race after a nice feel throughout the early sections and given his current position with Stoute he hasn't got many Classic opportunities and took advantage here.
Lets not forget she's a well hardened race fit mare on the day.
EC1
On a break
Homecoming Queen has run remarkably similar sectionals [ground corrected] to Attraction when she won
so what people have to ask themselves is if the principles had run to their best could they have beaten a OHR 120 horse on the day?
i think most have run below their form which has exggerated the winning distance..but..its that very winning distance that has thrown a ? mark over the winner
ignore her superiority on the day and just judge her on her performance..which imo is 120...could another filly have run a 121 does anyone thinlk?
so what people have to ask themselves is if the principles had run to their best could they have beaten a OHR 120 horse on the day?
i think most have run below their form which has exggerated the winning distance..but..its that very winning distance that has thrown a ? mark over the winner
ignore her superiority on the day and just judge her on her performance..which imo is 120...could another filly have run a 121 does anyone thinlk?
I agree with this reply to an interesting question from EC1.
But I also think there is a chance that at least Maybe will go above a 121 rating at some stage this season.
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EC1
On a break
HQ as has been pointed out is that nasty..run too many times..horse
we have a mentality engrained in us that really good horses do not run many times at 2...and the ideal super horse wins every time etc
as has been pointed out on this thread..some very good horses have taken off big time after numerous runs already on the board
we have a mentality engrained in us that really good horses do not run many times at 2...and the ideal super horse wins every time etc
as has been pointed out on this thread..some very good horses have taken off big time after numerous runs already on the board
EC1
On a break
i think you are probably right
i don't think HQ is super special..but i do feel she is a solid 120 horse
On The Bridle
At the Start
I have a leg in one particular horse that has run 82 times and won twice....we are seriously expecting dramatic improvement anytime now....
Again perfectly put EC1 - in a nutshell - where were you for the last 24 pages of shite??
Again perfectly put EC1 - in a nutshell - where were you for the last 24 pages of shite??
EC1
On a break
:lol:
i find it quite interesting that we have two guineas that in different ways were not the great races we expected ..but have generated more discussion than if they had been perfect races
two very interesting races in their own ways
i find it quite interesting that we have two guineas that in different ways were not the great races we expected ..but have generated more discussion than if they had been perfect races
two very interesting races in their own ways
I don't see any reason to doubt that HQ performed to at least a low 120s rating, and she dominated the race on merit.
The talking point now is how often will she be able to reproduce that level of performance. I think the chances are she will only be able to do it if given a quite narrow set of conditions.
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HQ as has been pointed out is that nasty..run too many times..horse
we have a mentality engrained in us that really good horses do not run many times at 2...and the ideal super horse wins every time etc
as has been pointed out on this thread..some very good horses have taken off big time after numerous runs already on the board
I think really good horses can run a lot at two. Usually they win a good amount of thoses races. There are many examples of that. Horses that run 11 times at two winning twice and then running twice more as a 3yo before a classic only to then obliterate any sort of form level before are very rare. Those "some really good horses" you quote are rather rare exceptions as well. I'll be happy to be proved wrong but if their was an evens betting market whether she could duplicate that form I'd be all over the no.
Ryan Moore does not give much away during interviews, but after the guineas he was verging on the side apologetic.
Phrases like: "She was very fit" .
"It's not the fairest track in the country".
Imagine how you'd feel if you owned the filly ?
He is being bluntly honest and being a little modest with regards to the ride he gave her.
The last three home were at the front end of the market, which makes it tough to weigh up, irrespective of the track issue.
Phrases like: "She was very fit" .
"It's not the fairest track in the country".
Imagine how you'd feel if you owned the filly ?
He is being bluntly honest and being a little modest with regards to the ride he gave her.
The last three home were at the front end of the market, which makes it tough to weigh up, irrespective of the track issue.
EC1
On a break
I'm not sure they are that narrow tbh
if you look at HQ's 2yo runs they seem bizarre
didn't have the toe for 6f..remove those races
the horse was also turned out ridiculously quickly a number of times..remove thsoe quick turn outs
remove the first 7f defeat as had run only 9 days previously
remove dirt race..did it not like it
remove fto this year..probably needed it
form then reads 1111
only a small amount of backfitting was done here
if you look at HQ's 2yo runs they seem bizarre
didn't have the toe for 6f..remove those races
the horse was also turned out ridiculously quickly a number of times..remove thsoe quick turn outs
remove the first 7f defeat as had run only 9 days previously
remove dirt race..did it not like it
remove fto this year..probably needed it
form then reads 1111
only a small amount of backfitting was done here
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S
SlimChance
Guest
You could back fit the form of any horse and come up with similar. The fact remains that if HQ ran close to form on her previous run at Leopardstown than Maybe was below her best at Newmarket on a line through Fire Lily. I find it exrtradionary that anyone can present a case for HQ without addressing the form of the Leopardstown race where she had a draw and pace advantage.
I'm not sure they are that narrow tbh
if you look at HQ's 2yo runs they seem bizarre
didn't have the toe for 6f..remove those races
the horse was also turned out ridiculously quickly a number of times..remove thsoe quick turn outs
remove the first 7f defeat as had run only 9 days previously
remove dirt race..did it not like it
remove fto this year..probably needed it
form then reads 1111
only a small amount of backfitting was done here
When do you take over from Nick Mordin?
EC1
On a break
i don't doubt for one minute that Maybe is better than shown
i would also be confident that HQ will still be a OHR 120 horse at end of season..just based on the sectionals..on other runs i don't know.
but she was certainly campaigned oddly at two..some of those turn outs are silly
S
SlimChance
Guest
There is no formline that justifies HQ being a 120 horse. Had this result happened in September in similar ground I know exactly what most people would be saying. The ground on Sunday was not normal Guineas going and we got an abnormal Guineas result. I look forward to taking on this supposed 120 beast when she shows up at the Curragh for the Irish equivalent.
When do you take over from Nick Mordin?
:lol:
If I didn't know better I'd think EC was poking fun!
Good to have you back EC and once again talking horses generates some really interesting and insightful debate. I think this forum is getting better, despite its resident troll.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
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- 24,844
Because of the circumstances surrounding the start, I've gone very conservative with Homecoming Queen, rating her purely on her time, which strikes me as the true indicator of her ability, which I'm pegging at 117.
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uncle goober
At the Start
- Joined
- Oct 10, 2005
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- 1,277
Maybe certainly was better than she showed on Sunday. Whether she is now, or will be again, is another matter. I liked her last year, but when I saw her at Newmarket she did not look close to being the same filly.