Road To The 2014 Derby

I would say running Camelot on that ground is high up on the list of decisions AOB wishes he could change.
 
SteveM said:
I drew attention to the edit in my post. I was making it clearer. Not attempting to score points. What is it that you believe is guff?
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That the reason Coolmore are likely to run Australia over 10f is to prove something that he was arguably unlucky in the Guineas. It was words to that effect to which I responded. You changed them subsequently.

Implied in this is that it wouldnt be in the best interests of the horse to run over 10f. That, in your mind, his optimum trip is 12f.

He may well run in the Irish Derby. His presence will not prove that 12f is his optimum trip. There are several other reasons for his decision - support of the race is important to Coolmore as proven 2 years ago, 3yo field still relatively early in his 3 year old career, and proven ability to beat those likely to take part.

If they go 10f with him it will not be to prove he was unlucky in the guineas. Change whatever text you want to retrofit your argument.
 
HawkWing said:
That the reason Coolmore are likely to run Australia over 10f is to prove something that he was arguably unlucky in the Guineas. It was words to that effect to which I responded. You changed them subsequently.

Implied in this is that it wouldnt be in the best interests of the horse to run over 10f. That, in your mind, his optimum trip is 12f.

He may well run in the Irish Derby. His presence will not prove that 12f is his optimum trip. There are several other reasons for his decision - support of the race is important to Coolmore as proven 2 years ago, 3yo field still relatively early in his 3 year old career, and proven ability to beat those likely to take part.

If they go 10f with him it will not be to prove he was unlucky in the guineas. Change whatever text you want to retrofit your argument.
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Thanks Hawk Wing. But first of all I did not change text to “retrofit” my argument. My words got into a bit of a tangle but I did not change what I said I was simply making myself clearer and drew attention to my edit in my subsequent post. I agree that they would not run Australia at 10 furlongs simply to claim he was unlucky in the Guineas (that would be absurd, although I bet they raise it again when he does win at 10). They would only run Australia at 10 if they thought he could win and I also believe he would be well up to doing this. I nevertheless believe that he will prove to be a better horse at 12 furlongs (something I’ve been saying since before the Guineas). And since he has achieved his highest rating to date in the Derby that still to me does not appear to be an outlandish claim. It seems to support what I had thought all along. Anyway that’s where I am with it.

For what it’s worth I thought that Hawk Wing was unlucky in the Guineas and a much superior colt at 8-10 to Australia. I thought that Hawk Wing should not have run in the Derby before the race, but as it was he was perhaps in the form of his life at the time and beaten only by an excellent 12 furlong stablemate. I think that Australia can take high rank (above Hawk Wing) at 12 furlongs and while the Eclipse might look tempting believe the Irish Derby is the way to go.
 
reet hard said:
... it's a fairly safe bet that - somewhere in the none too distant future - Australia will produce a 10f performance better than his 12f win on Saturday..
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I think so too but only because it's as much to do with natural development as suitability to the shorter trip. I think it's an equally safe bet that Australia will in the not too distant future also produce a 12f performance better than Saturday's.
 
A horse that can take a field apart between 3 out and 2 out like he does is going to be very good at 10f.

Watch the race between those two points and then watch the last furlong..a bit of a difference

I think he will better the big rating he got Saturday if he gets a 10f go.

sectionals tell me that he is a very good horse at 12f...could be even better at 10

a bit like Sea The Stars
 
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SteveM said:
I wouldn't take issue with either of these points. The point I'm making is that they claim all things for the latest in the production line in a cynical attempt to enhance market value. Most big yards do it, but Ballydoyle/Coolmore have taken it to another level.
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So that's how breeders make their choices? They google APOB qoutes after they finish the port and "I say Hyacinth, let's send the old gal to Hawkwing, what? That O'Brien chap says he could have won the July Cup and The Leger, sounds like that's the jolly old versatility we've been looking for, eh?"

Always wondered how that worked.
 
I think sea the stars run his best race when dropping to 10f in the eclipse,

I think Australia will be at 10 f on his best distance, so eclipse , irish champion and champion stakes are the 3 ideal races for him, it would be great to see him there against night of thunder and Just A Way.
 
SteveM said:
Thanks Hawk Wing. But first of all I did not change text to “retrofit” my argument. My words got into a bit of a tangle but I did not change what I said I was simply making myself clearer and drew attention to my edit in my subsequent post. I agree that they would not run Australia at 10 furlongs simply to claim he was unlucky in the Guineas (that would be absurd, although I bet they raise it again when he does win at 10). They would only run Australia at 10 if they thought he could win and I also believe he would be well up to doing this. I nevertheless believe that he will prove to be a better horse at 12 furlongs (something I’ve been saying since before the Guineas). And since he has achieved his highest rating to date in the Derby that still to me does not appear to be an outlandish claim. It seems to support what I had thought all along. Anyway that’s where I am with it.

For what it’s worth I thought that Hawk Wing was unlucky in the Guineas and a much superior colt at 8-10 to Australia. I thought that Hawk Wing should not have run in the Derby before the race, but as it was he was perhaps in the form of his life at the time and beaten only by an excellent 12 furlong stablemate. I think that Australia can take high rank (above Hawk Wing) at 12 furlongs and while the Eclipse might look tempting believe the Irish Derby is the way to go.
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Thats well and good. Some might call it obvious. Yes, they can go for the Irish Derby or the Eclipse.

Just as in a face to face conversation, Id have more respect for someone who just admitted they misspoke or rushed without thinking and attempted to clarify what they wanted to say in the flow of the conversation rather than going back to remove it as if it never happened. As if it was the listener who was the cause of confusion. No one expects anyone to be perfect.

I wouldnt go congratulating yourself too much on predicting that a Galileo by Ouija Board would be better in excess of a mile. How long was he favourite for the Derby?
 
Thanks Luke. Im perfectly happy. You are better than that advice. Your Taghrooda suggestion was top notch.
 
HawkWing said:
Thats well and good. Some might call it obvious. Yes, they can go for the Irish Derby or the Eclipse.

Just as in a face to face conversation, Id have more respect for someone who just admitted they misspoke or rushed without thinking and attempted to clarify what they wanted to say in the flow of the conversation rather than going back to remove it as if it never happened. As if it was the listener who was the cause of confusion. No one expects anyone to be perfect.

I wouldnt go congratulating yourself too much on predicting that a Galileo by Ouija Board would be better in excess of a mile. How long was he favourite for the Derby?
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get over yourself old son...
 
an capall said:
So that's how breeders make their choices? They google APOB qoutes after they finish the port and "I say Hyacinth, let's send the old gal to Hawkwing, what? That O'Brien chap says he could have won the July Cup and The Leger, sounds like that's the jolly old versatility we've been looking for, eh?"

Always wondered how that worked.
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...delighted to have been of help.:p
 
sunybay said:
I think sea the stars run his best race when dropping to 10f in the eclipse,
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I agree, but I don't think its coincidence that that race was run at a cracking pace whereas both his 12f wins (Derby & Arc) weren't so strongly run and didn't allow him to show his full superiority despite winning both easily (STS not being one to do too much in front).
 
I wonder if they will ,contrary to previous post Galileo practice , in light of Australia's apparent aversion to soft ground , look to make hay in the summer . As Treve is going for the King George it would be great to see Australia there and then he could step back to 10f later in the year .
 
sunybay said:
I think Australia will be at 10 f on his best distance, so eclipse , irish champion and champion stakes are the 3 ideal races for him, it would be great to see him there against night of thunder and Just A Way.
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That would be something else. Just A Way connections talking the Arc now, seems silly to me, his best form is at 1m2f. I suspect they'll have a change of heart and stick to the Tenno Sho myself but Leopardstown could still be an option beforehand but would seem an odd race to come over for on it's own.
 
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Ardross said:
I wonder if they will ,contrary to previous post Galileo practice , in light of Australia's apparent aversion to soft ground , look to make hay in the summer . As Treve is going for the King George it would be great to see Australia there and then he could step back to 10f later in the year .
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That would be ideal. KG, B&H, Irish Champ, ARC.
 
Arc a doubt owing to possible softer ground plus it is late in the season.
The horse would need a mid summer break which would rule out July and August.
BHA rating of 123 on the conservative side imo .

Nice article in Irish Examiner last Sat Colm ; I enjoyed it.
 
I've just done Friday's card at epsom. I'm getting a going allowance of -0.42spf.

That is fast ground in anyone's book.

About to get my teeth in Saturday's.
 
thats very high DO.....i only got 0.16 pf fast..only just into good/firm on my calcs

one other quick way of gauging is it to take the last 10 times a race was run on officially Good ground....only use the 7 fastest to remove false pace ones..then take an average

the Diomed Stakes for instance

2012 103.37
2010 103.03
2009 103.61
2008 105.50
2007 103.36
2005 104.73
2004 102.40
2003 101.37
2000 104.15
1999 103.73

Average time (7 fastest) for the Diomed on Good = 102.98

this year its 101.71

1.27 sec faster than middle good

going correction = 0.16 pf

which i'm relieved about as it confirms the allowance i got from just calculating the days allowance my normal way

its a decent double check i tend to use anyway
 
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I'm looking at a going allowance for Saturday of -0.24spf for the round course and -0.29spf for the straight course.

This gives Australia a time rating of 126 (after wfa). I can see where the handicapper is coming from in going as low as 123. The ones that finished 3rd to 6th respectively were on ORs of 107, 108, 95 and 104. Those are the ratings you'd expect of good handicappers and would be reasonable grounds for pegging back the form, something I might have been inclined to go along with had we ended up with a moderate time (as we did in Oath's year).

As you know, I'm fond of (and ridiculed regularly on here for) the 'take X out' approach. Take Australia out and Kingston Hill would have looked a decent winner. Take KH out and Australia would have been a wide margin winner. As it is, he was over eight lengths clear of the fourth. If I get time I might trawl back through recent years to see how often that has happened and how it reflected on the winner.

It was unfortunate that those with ratings in excess of 110 appear not to have run their race for various reasons.

True Story (114) did not fire, according to Fallon.

Fascinating Rock (113) tried to come from the rear, was then trapped wide and got involved in a running scrimmage with a couple of others from the top of the hill, which wouldn't have helped.

Ebanoran (113) reportedly didn't stay. Orchestra (110) had a nightmare of a race as did Geoffrey Chaucer (112).

So, it could be that the race rather fell into the hands of the front two but the time suggests it was at least a proper G1 (ie 126) winner.
 
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