Road To The 2014 Derby

SteveM said:
With Camelot for example it was very different he had already won a classic at a mile so had proved himself at trips below 12 furlongs before winning the Derby. He was one who had nothing to lose and everything to gain by attempting to emulate Nijinsky in the Triple Crown.
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1) Australia is at least as good a miler as Camelot was. The acid test will be when they take on their elders, but so far this year's Guineas field looks far better than the 2012 version.

2) There were plenty who thought that going for the Leger and the Triple Crown was the easier option for Camelot as it meant he would conveniently avoid being pulverised by Frankel.
 
I wouldn't take issue with either of these points. The point I'm making is that they claim all things for the latest in the production line in a cynical attempt to enhance market value. Most big yards do it, but Ballydoyle/Coolmore have taken it to another level.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I think Australia is a better miler than Camelot was.

All Guinesas are not of equal quality.
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I think that is probably right. It was certainly a better Guineas in depth this year and the front three look very good. It was also a good Derby. Australia did really well against specialist milers in the Guineas and Camelot wasn't a miler at all, but still good enough to win a classic at a mile.
 
Had Camelot gone the Ballysax/Derrinstown/Derby route before winning the Derby, and O'Brien and connections gave their honest opinion that the horse was good enough to win a Guineas over a mile, he would be roundly condemned for talking pure guff by those who wish to crab him/Coolmore.

Had Australia ran like a stayer (Kingston Hill) in the 2000 guineas and O'Brien came out and said he would win a Group 1 at a mile, you'd have to question it.

To label O'Brien as talking "pure guff" or predictable Coolmore hype when Australia was beaten less than a length in the guineas, with some circumstances arguably going against him is idiotic.

The July Cup thing....Hawk Wing may have been far more fondly remembered had O'Brien stuck with him as a sprinter. Instead of condemning O'Brien with more foundation for getting the horse wrong, and not getting the most from the horses talent, they go on about every middle distance horse having the speed for the July cup. 12 years later. Running him over 12f didnt do him any favours.

I wouldnt like Australia to run over 12f again. Not til next year anyway.
 
SteveM said:
You don’t get to win the Derby by beating two stamina horses without fully getting the trip. It’s got nothing to do with fitting a result to a theory, it’s to do with not being completely gullible and believing everything a young jockey working for his father and the most powerful breeding operation in the world has to tell you.
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We're all aware of the Ballydoyle hype-machine; however, even they would baulk at pretentious pap such as "perfectly calibrated mile-and-a-half horse" and "
his natural aptitude is bang on 12 furlongs". being presented as already scriven in stone.
Racecourse performance will always trump breeding theory as a measure of a horse's true ability, and it's a fairly safe bet that - somewhere in the none too distant future - Australia will produce a 10f performance better than his 12f win on Saturday..
 
Racecourse performance will always trump breeding theory as a measure of a horse's true ability
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Would still be a surprise if he was best or really top at a mile with that breeding though.

Didnt Nick Mordin have a theory that horses that are significantly stepped up find it very difficult to perform as before when dropped back
 
HawkWing said:
I wouldnt like Australia to run over 12f again. Not til next year anyway.
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It seems an odd thing to say about a high-class middle distance horse. But you may well get your wish. They may drop him back to 10 furlongs next (and in that instance may well argue he was unlucky in the Guineas). He should probably go for the Irish Derby, but then again I suppose those who see that race as a consolation for the Derby would say that proves nothing.
 
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I think it'll be the Sea The Stars scenario; Irish Derby unless its soft, keeping an entry in the Eclipse the following weekend as a backup. Assuming all is well, a break before the Irish Champion and Arc. I think he'll be their first Derby winner since Galileo to not stay in training at 4.
 
reet hard said:
Racecourse performance will always trump breeding theory as a measure of a horse's true ability, and it's a fairly safe bet that - somewhere in the none too distant future - Australia will produce a 10f performance better than his 12f win on Saturday..
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Of course it is true that racecourse performance takes precedence over theory. You theorise in the absence of form. There comes a point where form takes over from theory and at the moment he is a Group 1 winner at 12 furlongs and Group 1 placed at 8 furlongs. To suggest that he is better at distances short of 12 furlongs is pure conjecture. You are doing exactly what you accuse me of doing.
 
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Gareth Flynn said:
I think it'll be the Sea The Stars scenario; Irish Derby unless its soft, keeping an entry in the Eclipse the following weekend as a backup. Assuming all is well, a break before the Irish Champion and Arc.
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I hope so... the Irish Derby next would seem the right way to me.
 
SteveM said:
I hope so... the Irish Derby next would seem the right way to me.
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I hope not. Why would you want to see him beat a similar, or probably lessor, field over the same trip. Surely, from an enthusiasts viewpoint, you would at least want to test whether he might be better over 10.
 
Melendez said:
I hope not. Why would you want to see him beat a similar, or probably lessor, field over the same trip. Surely, from an enthusiasts viewpoint, you would at least want to test whether he might be better over 10.
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I think it will suit him better and therefore be better for the horse. Others think otherwise.
 
If O'Brien has learned any lessons from Camelot he will only race in the Irish Derby if its suits.

The reason it suits is that its against 3yos. Not that its over 12f.

Its great to think that the only reason why he would go ten furlong is to argue that he was unlucky in the guineas. Pure guff.
 
What amazes me in all this is APOB prefaces his Australia remarks with "for a Galileo..the horse shows amazing speed "etc.
Now I know he did not train Teofilo, New Approach, Frankel but he did train Rip Van Winkle , Kingbarns and a whole host of mile Group 1 winning fillies.
Having trained Galileo himself and indeed recommending him as a sire to Jim Bolger (with staggering results) you would imagine he would hold Galileo's stock in higher regard vis a vis speed !
I would love to hear Jim Bolger's take on this given he had earmarked Teofilo as a Triple Crown horse and New Approach nearly was one; the latter being the best recent Derby winner to compare Australia to at this stage.
 
Melendez said:
I think it would suit him better too. I'd still be far more interested to see him in an Eclipse. I doubt the horse really cares.
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I see what you mean.

The horse may not care, but connections will be thinking very hard about what looks best vs. what’s achievable for his CV.
 
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HawkWing said:
If O'Brien has learned any lessons from Camelot he will only race in the Irish Derby if its suits.

The reason it suits is that its against 3yos. Not that its over 12f.

Its great to think that the only reason why he would go ten furlong is to argue that he was unlucky in the guineas. Pure guff.
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Not sure I understand this post. If he ran at 10 furlongs that of course would not be the only reason. Remember they are also not averse to making claims for horses at distances they do not intend to run them at. He should be capable of winning a Group 1 at 10 furlongs. Whether this would make him a better 10 furlong horse than a 12 furlong horse is another question. (note previous edit)
 
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edgt said:
What amazes me in all this is APOB prefaces his Australia remarks with "for a Galileo..the horse shows amazing speed "etc.
Now I know he did not train Teofilo, New Approach, Frankel but he did train Rip Van Winkle , Kingbarns and a whole host of mile Group 1 winning fillies.
Having trained Galileo himself and indeed recommending him as a sire to Jim Bolger (with staggering results) you would imagine he would hold Galileo's stock in higher regard vis a vis speed !
I would love to hear Jim Bolger's take on this given he had earmarked Teofilo as a Triple Crown horse and New Approach nearly was one; the latter being the best recent Derby winner to compare Australia to at this stage.
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Yes I know what you mean. While, at the time, AOB emphasised Galileo’s speed (as he does when they have won a stamina test), he has subsequently developed a reputation for imparting stamina. What I think AOB is doing here is suggesting that Australia is a particularly sharp sort of Galileo in the same way that Camelot was a sharp sort of Montjeu. He is again emphasising that Australia is a middle distance option that is fast = market rate.
 
SteveM said:
Not sure I understand this post. If he ran at 10 furlongs that of course would not be the only reason. Remember they are also not averse to making claims for horses at distances they do not intend to run them at. He should be capable of winning a Group 1 at 10 furlongs. Whether this would make him a better 10 furlong horse than a 12 furlong horse is another question. (note previous edit)
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You edit your post and claim not to understand the point that I was making.

Nicely played.
 
HawkWing said:
You edit your post and claim not to understand the point that I was making.

Nicely played.
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I drew attention to the edit in my post. I was making it clearer. Not attempting to score points. What is it that you believe is guff?
 
Australia 'likely' for Irish Derby
Epsom Derby winner Australia's next target is likely to be the Irish Derby, says trainer Aidan O'Brien.
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From the link at the bottom of this page (Though I'm darned if I can open it, or find it on any of the major sites) :)
 
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no surprise. be 3 years in a row now coolmore have taken their derby winner straight there. they obviously want to support the race for ireland. if it comes up soft they might take him out though and head to sandown.
 
Gamla Stan said:
They didn't with Camelot and it was brutal ground that year.
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and i think they'll be mindful of that. it was a harder race then he needed.

they've said they want to avoid soft ground with him and i think, even with the pressure to run him to promote that race, they'd pull him out if it was truly soft ground.
 
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