Road To The 2014 Derby

SteveM said:
the winner is a proper 12 furlong horse. He's beaten another good 12 furlong horse in second and a fine St Leger Prospect in third. Of these three Australia is the likeliest to shine at 10 furlongs but is best at 12.
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His jockey thinks he'll be best at 10f, and the form entirely supports that view, imo.
 
reet hard said:
His jockey thinks he'll be best at 10f, and the form entirely supports that view, imo.
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Ballydoyle always say the same about their mile-and-a-half winners. Stud values dictate that they need to win a Group 1 at below 12 furlongs (as a mature horse), but Australia is a perfectly calibrated mile-and-a-half horse. He should also do well at 10 as he quickens up well, which is probably why they'll drop him back, but his natural aptitude is bang on 12 furlongs.
 
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He's pretty dam good at any trip. I personally think 10f will see him at his very best.
 
SteveM said:
Ballydoyle always say the same about their mile-and-a-half winners. Stud values dictate that they need to win a Group 1 at below 12 furlongs (as a mature horse), but Australia is a perfectly calibrated mile-and-a-half horse. He should also do well at 10 as he quickens up well, which is probably why they'll drop him back, but his natural aptitude is bang on 12 furlongs.
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Exactly - superb as he was yesterday all the " we would have dropped back to a mile and been confident of beating Kingman and NOT" is all guff for stallion purposes .
 
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Yeah, Kingman beat him a total of a head in the one time they raced over a mile. Kingman's main target, Australia's secondary one.

Pure guff indeed.
 
HawkWing said:
Yeah, Kingman beat him a total of a head in the one time they raced over a mile. Kingman's main target, Australia's secondary one.

Pure guff indeed.
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Total guff - the only surprise is that they have not said that Australia was quick enough to win the July Cup as they did with some of their past Derby winners.

Australia was significantly outpaced in the final furlong of the 2000 Guineas by the front two .
 
Significantly outpaced in the last furlong of the guineas??? to be beaten a head. You are saying that he was quicker earlier?? He was travelling quicker earlier than Kingman??? And saying that he has speed for a mile is pure guff.

I think its a fair sign that 10f will be his optimum given how well he looked to be travelling 2f out and ultimately didnt clear away from a good staying horse. Galileo won the Derby but best run over 10f.
 
Anyone able to guess the plan for Kingston Hill this season at this point?
I think he has run an absolute belter against a horse primed (like no other) for The Derby.
Would it be folly to suggest he could reverse form later in the season?
 
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Irish Derby for Kingston Hill, I think. Would be nice to see him representing the Derby form in the King George, wouldn't it? I'd worry about him on fast ground though.
 
SteveM said:
Ballydoyle always say the same about their mile-and-a-half winners. Stud values dictate that they need to win a Group 1 at below 12 furlongs (as a mature horse), but Australia is a perfectly calibrated mile-and-a-half horse. He should also do well at 10 as he quickens up well, which is probably why they'll drop him back, but his natural aptitude is bang on 12 furlongs.
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Not a case of him needing to fit your dosage theory, then? :rolleyes:
 
HawkWing said:
Significantly outpaced in the last furlong of the guineas??? to be beaten a head. You are saying that he was quicker earlier?? He was travelling quicker earlier than Kingman??? And saying that he has speed for a mile is pure guff.

I think its a fair sign that 10f will be his optimum given how well he looked to be travelling 2f out and ultimately didnt clear away from a good staying horse. Galileo won the Derby but best run over 10f.
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No I didn't say that it was pure guff that he has speed for a mile . It is pure guff to say that they are confident he would have beaten Kingman and NOT at Ascot . He is a proper middle distance horse who ran a blinder in the Guineas but the fact he was a middle distance horse found him out in the final furlong.

Everything said by Ballydoyle should be taken with a pitch of salt as it is all said with horse value in mind .
 
I'm fairly sure it was said about Hawk Wing (who actually was entered in the July Cup when he ran in the Derby).
 
Na, can't be that. What's so controversial about running a speedy Danehill miler like RoG in the July Cup that could possibly create a meme that's still being trotted out over a decade later? They were talking about having a shot at the Triple Crown with Hawk Wing, and also that he could be a sprinter; here's some quotes about the non-Derby-winning Hawk Wing:

Before the '02 Derby:

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/racing-obrien-in-two-minds-over-hawk-and-high-190243.html

"If a horse like Hawk Wing, who has tactical speed, can travel within himself through a race then the distance will be no problem. But then again he would have no problem in coming back to the July Cup and if you say that then you wonder if you are asking too much for him to get a mile and a half. "
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After the Derby:

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/The+D...hrough+lack+of+stamina,+insists...-a087044372

O'Brien said: "He has so much speed that we would not mind bringing him back to six furlongs. He is a horse you could run in the July Cup, so he could race over anything above six furlongs."
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After his '03 Lockinge win:

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/racing-majestic-hawk-in-full-flight-105172.html

"He's an amazing horse," O'Brien said. "With his pace, you'd almost think he could win a July Cup."
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/2983838.stm

"When he won his Group One over seven furlongs (the National Stakes) his time suggested that he would have won the Nunthorpe or the July Cup despite him just being a two-year-old," he said.
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I think he might have referenced the July Cup a couple of years back with So You Think, also, but that doesn't have anything to do with his Derby winners either.
 
reet hard said:
Not a case of him needing to fit your dosage theory, then? :rolleyes:
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You don’t get to win the Derby by beating two stamina horses without fully getting the trip. It’s got nothing to do with fitting a result to a theory, it’s to do with not being completely gullible and believing everything a young jockey working for his father and the most powerful breeding operation in the world has to tell you.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Irish Derby for Kingston Hill, I think. Would be nice to see him representing the Derby form in the King George, wouldn't it? I'd worry about him on fast ground though.
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It’s more a case of Kingston Hill coping better with soft ground than his opponents than not being effective on good (fast would be far from ideal even so). There’s no doubt that, in relation to others, he is advantaged by soft going. The Irish Derby and KG would certainly suit.
 
Ardross said:
No I didn't say that it was pure guff that he has speed for a mile . It is pure guff to say that they are confident he would have beaten Kingman and NOT at Ascot . He is a proper middle distance horse who ran a blinder in the Guineas but the fact he was a middle distance horse found him out in the final furlong.

Everything said by Ballydoyle should be taken with a pitch of salt as it is all said with horse value in mind .
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Yes, it’s a rehearsed tactic of theirs to say that a horse that has been brilliantly successful at one trip is just as good, if not even better, at another trip that suits their agenda. It supports the idea of the versatility of the horse. What better than to say of an impressive Derby winner that he is even better at a shorter trip. Whether the statement is true or not in an individual case it feeds the myth that the horse can do anything.

Having said that obviously a colt that ran so well in the Guineas that has also won the Derby will be able to do very well at 10 furlongs.
 
Yeah, stud values, yet they send their guineas winner to the Leger (for the glory) rather than protecting him. Also, went for the Irish Derby when they in hindsight shouldnt have.

I think Kevin Blake nails it here. http://www.theirishfield.ie/site/article.php?id=4313&cid=5#.U5VUhChcmJs

For every report over the weekend that O'Brien said that Australia is the best horse they ever had, I didnt see it once in print from him, or in an interview live. If he is asked "is Australia the best you've trained" and he replies "Listen, he might be". It seems that those who want to see it as hype, can. Best of luck to those who want to crab him, and their operation.

He has prepared the last three Derby winners - if Coolmore were consistently breeding for speed and 12f, the Derby would be falling even faster from the consciousness. This Derby winner is from a Derby Winner out of an Oaks winner.
 
No one is crabbing O’Brien’s ability to train horses. It is the hype machine at Ballydoyle that shoots itself in the foot, claiming virtually every season that they have one better than all of those before it. Coolmore in fact doesn’t breed for speed, it is one of the few operations that dares to breed for stamina. This doesn't stop them claiming the sort of versatility for their stars that can be anywhere on the scale from July Cup to Gold Cup. With Camelot for example it was very different he had already won a classic at a mile so had proved himself at trips below 12 furlongs before winning the Derby. He was one who had nothing to lose and everything to gain by attempting to emulate Nijinsky in the Triple Crown.
 
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