Road To The 2014 Derby

Euronymous said:
On soft ground the race becomes a bit of a lottery. Just load up on ROTW in the preceding race and chill for the main event.
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The weather forecasters on here have got me worried and if it does come up soft I suppose it could put paid to Australia's chances.

If Australia is to be beaten by the weather/soft ground the answer may lie in that article Hamm posted re Ebanoran.

I had a close look at the Derristown and can see why John Oxx gives his horse a chance.

However I thought Declan Mcdonogh rode a peach of a race that day to win albeit losing it in the stewards room.

Pat Smullen on the other hand had put Fascinating Rock to sleep and perhaps overdid it a bit. DMcd mount's engine was already going up the gears turning for home and when he took off looked like he was going to go well clear and hack up.

However when PS eventually got Fascinating Rock into full stride he was cutting back the deficit and over fist and would have most likely have beaten him easily with another 50 yds to go.

While the ground was yielding to soft that day you'd have to ask the question if Ebanoran would want it any softer.

There's no such question mark over Fascination who won at Navan on soft.

The extra distance if the Derristown is anything to go by should be a plus and if he is naturally a bit slow to get into top gear the run downhill from Tattenham corner may help him rather than hinder him.

If it does come up soft Fascination Rock looks a good EW bet to me and of it comes up good he's probably still the best EW bet in the field at 16/1.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Will be 2/1 about on Saturday morning before returning at 13/8 I reckon.
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If Cheltenham and Aintree are anything to go by there has to be a chance of one bookie going 3/1 or maybe even 4/1 for a short space of time to limited stakes in the morning.
 


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Hopefully Epsom misses the rain tomorrow.
Come on then, stick up your 1-2-3.

Mine,
1- Australia
2- Orchestra
3- Geoffrey Chaucer
 
hills going 5/2 australia from 8.30am online (9am shops). stakes limited but they've not said to what amount. £50 was rumoured.
 
1 Australia - the rest nowhere
A stand-out on form and time, looks likely to be a decent pace and will improve again for the trip.
Judged on today, it's going need rain of biblical proportions to mess the ground up, also.
 
Kingston hill
Australia
Arud

If it stays pretty dry then Australia to win but can't have the price at all
 
Bar the Bull said:
Is he really a standout on form?
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7lbs clear on RPR's, with the exception of Kingston Hill - the only horses in the race with gp1 form.
KH won the RP Trophy, but 2nd & 4th finished much further behind Australia in the Guineas (as was KH himself).
 
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Bar the Bull said:
Is he really a standout on form?
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John Gosden said today the race was all about one horse and the rest were running for the place money.

I actually rate KH's RP Trophy form a touch higher than Australia's Guineas form but obviously he wasn't able to run to it at Newmarket.
 
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