Road To The 2014 Derby

Is it use the system if it throws up the favourite or near second favourite and don't if it doesn't? :p
 
Doesn't the below table suggest dosage has no part to play in helping find the winner?

Dosage of previous Derby winners

YEAR COLT DI
2013 RULER OF TYE WORLD 1.05
2012 CAMELOT 0.94
2011 POUR MOI 0.78
2010 WORKFORCE 1.44
2009 SEA THE STARS 3.00
2008 NEW APPROACH 0.89
2007 AUTHORIZED* 0.86 (from 1.00)
2006 SIR PERCY 0.54
2005 MOTIVATOR 1.43
2004 NORTH LIGHT* 1.13* (from 1.60)
2003 KRIS KIN* 1.05* (from 1.34)
2002 HIGH CHAPARRAL 0.82
2001 GALILEO 1.11
AVERAGE = 1.15
 
What about the pace of the race?

Will ballydoyle want a slow pace like they had in ríp van winkle year?

I think they this will be the case this year, Australia will be help es by a slow pace.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Red Galileo and Impulsive Moment look to be perfect fits on your system Steve, how come they haven't therefore figured in your top five?
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They are mentioned in the article with corresponding reasons.

The piece makes me think that Godolphin may well use a pacemaker to force the pace for True Story.
 
sunybay said:
What about the pace of the race?

Will ballydoyle want a slow pace like they had in ríp van winkle year?

I think they this will be the case this year, Australia will be help es by a slow pace.
Click to expand...

I was discussing this at lunch today. I think Ballydoyle may well try to engineer a slow pace. I'm more than happy to accept Steve's argument that he is pretty much blueprint bred for the Derby but if it is true that he can do four successive furlongs in 11s each then a sprint finish will suit him admirably. He'd only need to be within a half-dozen lengths of the lead to put that speed to use.

simmo said:
The piece makes me think that Godolphin may well use a pacemaker to force the pace for True Story.
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This is the obverse of the coin discussed. With the two Godolphin runners looking to need a proper stamina test their tactic might well be to do all they can to draw the finish out of Australia. It might not make any difference, mind, if Australia is indeed the ideal Derby horse. Kieren Fallon, however, insists that True Story is faster than his other Derby winners so it is shaping up into possibly the classiest Derby for many many years.
 
Weather Watch is the most critical factor from now until Saturday.
Hold all bets !
After the Dawn Approach debacle last year a decent pace is surely guaranteed.
If they go relatively too quick on soft ground who picks up the pieces ?
Will this be like the Cheltenham Gold Cup in reverse ?
The dosage indices for most of the runners seem much of a muchness, from what little I know about it.
That Oasis Dream, Fastnet Rock ,Mastercraftsman to mention just three are sires of fancied runners is something of note, given there are no apparent stamina doubts about any of them.
That racemares the calibre of Ouija Board and Luas Line can breed Derby contenders is also great for race and breeding fans.
A truly fascinating race in prospect.
I only hope and pray that rain does not spoil the race or the result.
Given that Saturday is the birth date of Dean Martin we should all be "praying for rain in California" and California alone !( once it wont rust the Chrome!)
 
Looks like there will be some give in the ground:

EPSOM DOWNS - Flat (Updated:04/06/2014 at 16:31:06)
Going
Good, Good to Soft in places
(GoingStick: 7.7 Overall . Home Straight Stands Side 7.5 Far
Side Oaks strip 7.2 on Wednesday at 07:30)

Stalls
1m 4f - Centre

Rails
Rail dolled out up to 6 yards from 1m to winning post, adding 17
yards (16 metres) to race distances.

Weather
6mm rain by 4pm Wednesday. Light rain likely to continue on
and off until late evening. Thursday dry. Friday warmer with risk
of showers put probably coming after racing.
Click to expand...
[From the BHA site]
 
Gamla Stan said:
Red Galileo and Impulsive Moment look to be perfect fits on your system Steve, how come they haven't therefore figured in your top five?
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Because I don't think they're good enough. Dosage tells you about stamina aptitude not ability. When the best horse is in the sweet spot for aptitude you have your bet. Unfortunately this year that horse is also the favourite. It's also why I went against the favourites last year and in 2011 with a more suitable alternative.
 
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Hamm said:
Is it use the system if it throws up the favourite or near second favourite and don't if it doesn't? :p
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More use the two together and come to a reasoned decision. Which is why I opposed Australia for the Guineas but want to be with him in this.
 
Hamm said:
Doesn't the below table suggest dosage has no part to play in helping find the winner?

Dosage of previous Derby winners

YEAR COLT DI
2013 RULER OF TYE WORLD 1.05
2012 CAMELOT 0.94
2011 POUR MOI 0.78
2010 WORKFORCE 1.44
2009 SEA THE STARS 3.00
2008 NEW APPROACH 0.89
2007 AUTHORIZED* 0.86 (from 1.00)
2006 SIR PERCY 0.54
2005 MOTIVATOR 1.43
2004 NORTH LIGHT* 1.13* (from 1.60)
2003 KRIS KIN* 1.05* (from 1.34)
2002 HIGH CHAPARRAL 0.82
2001 GALILEO 1.11
AVERAGE = 1.15
Click to expand...

It tells you that horses within a certain range, between about 1.4 and 0.8 (centring on 1, do better than those outside of the range).
 
SteveM said:
It tells you that horses within a certain range, between about 1.4 and 0.8 (centring on 1, do better than those outside of the range).
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the problem is that many fancied horses each year are within that range...which imo devalues using that data as a reducing tool. Your own selections each year in this and the 2000 guineas normally result in you mentioning most of the fancied runners as possible winners.

i'm not criticising..its just that its a bit like saying that runners priced 10/1 or less have a really good chance in the Derby

basically..its not really a reducing tool imo
 
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EC1 said:
the problem is that many fancied horses each year are within that range...which imo devalues using that data as a reducing tool. Your own selections each year in this and the 2000 guineas normally result in you mentioning most of the fancied runners as possible winners.

i'm not criticising..its just that its a bit like saying that runners priced 10/1 or less have a really good chance in the Derby

basically..its not really a reducing tool imo
Click to expand...

This is true. But this table offers only a simple rule of thumb. The analysis for selection is much more detailed.

It is a great reducing tool when the favourite, for example, is not suitable.
 
It does, however, allow us to have the "is dosage a crock of ****" argument every single year.

Personally, I fall into the "it's no more a crock of **** than any (and I mean any) type of form study" category.
 
simmo said:
It does, however, allow us to have the "is dosage a crock of ****" argument every single year.

Personally, I fall into the "it's no more a crock of **** than any (and I mean any) type of form study" category.
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It’s a tool to use as a supplement to other things. It comes into its own and offers real value when it tells what market-leading horses to oppose.

But I agree, it’s offered for the intelligence that it can shed. Simply that. It is limited as are all systems, but when used with others can give you an edge.

It’s disappointing that this becomes the focus rather than the event itself.
 
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its not really the focus for me..just saying....i just don't see how its that much help. most of the time the fav is in the selected group..but usually with 3 or 4 others

the whole point is that we all use different ways of forming our decisions....i just couldn't form a decision by using dosage as a starting point is all i'm saying as its not effective enough for me personally to reduce the task

also...i only usually back one horse in these big races...so i need something that narrows the field down

don't be too precious Steve about comments about it...i've put hours in posting stuff on here for it to be completely derided by people...thats why i don't bother much now with the nuts and bolts of how i work

people generally prefer to think they are in the know on forums...they like info...actual methods like the ones we use are looked down on generally anyway...nerdy anoraks etc.
 
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EC1 said:
don't be too precious Steve about comments about it...i've put hours in posting stuff on here for it to be completely derided by people...thats why i don't bother much now with the nuts and bolts of how i work
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Indeed so... but I wasn’t aware that I was being precious about it, merely endeavouring to explain what I take to be genuine queries.
 
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