Road To The 2014 Derby

Re- quality of his winners, Kris Kin and North Light would disprove that theory. Both turned out to be average, both were primed for this race, both coincidently landed a few bets.
I reckon Australia will take a lot of beating, but I feel something from the slowing pack will come and challenge him at the business-end. Something like Snow Sky.
 
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If SMS had his say I doubt if Snow Sky who looks limited in the talent stakes would go within a hundred miles of the Derby. He's only there so the owner can say he has a runner.

If something does beat Australia and someone backs it then good on them but I just can't see it.

You really couldn't help but be impressed by Australia's run in the Guineas. He's easily won his race on the near side and more importantly he stayed perfectly balanced when put under pressure.

JOB highlighted the fact in a recent article that you need a well balanced horse round Epsom. Combine that with the right breeding undeniable class and a young man who's hungry to win and you better take your best game and more if you are going to even come close to giving him a race.

There's always the danger that one of O'Brien's own animal could upset the apple cart but if the likes of Geoffrey Chaucer were to turn him over I would imagine they would be gobsmacked.

I certainly won't be wasting my time clutching at straws trying find something to beat Australia who looks a stonking good bet at 11/8 when he clearly should be odds on.

The drift doesn't alarm me one bit that's simply a lot of punters placing ew bets on their fancies. They'll likely get a better price now than on the day when the bookies will make damn sure anything that looks likely to place is as short as possible,
 
I’ve backed Australia and Kingston Hill. As I see it the three who might upset a return are: Geoffrey Chaucer, True Story (neither of which I’m totally convinced by) and Ebanoran, who could be the fly in the ointment.

So the first five in the betting then!
 
Great to see Oisin Murphy getting a ride less than 12 months after riding his first winner. The last Kerryman to win an Epsom Derby was Bernard Dillon nearly 100 years ago so not before time for a Kerry jockey to try again.
Epsom Clerk Of the Course spoke of possibly watering if needs be; can you believe it ?
John Oxx not a man to needlessly send a horse to Epsom; Oasis Dream not a sire you consider as a source of St Leger winners usually !

Whilst the first part is something to bear in mind (but not read too much into), the second part is what makes me think he will be anything but a slow boat. I liked the acceleration he showed 2 out in the Derrinstown, and would think if his stamina isn't right for the Derby, he won't have enough rather than too much (Leger type).

I have watched the race several times now and still can't see how Geoffrey Chaucer has been taken to be the best horse in the race. Yes, you could say he was unlucky but it was a bad ride for me. Ebanoran won on merit and Oxx has never had his Derby horses primed in the trials. I really like him.
 
Isn't Chaucer really only the price he is because he allegedly beat Australia round Ballydoyle's Tattenham Corner in a piece of work?!
 
I know! I wonder who takes notice of these things.

Whatever happened to Aidan/Galileo from the forum? He would get very upset at even a hint of p*ss-taking of Coolmore.
 
In my opinion there is a chance that they won't run Australia if the going is soft.My weather app tells me that there is a chance of heavy rain at Epsom on Saturday-if that falls early enough in the day there is a chance he won't run.They left a lot behind when they ran Camelot in the Irish Derby.
I'm saying 10-15 per cent chance he doesn't run and if he runs on ground with soft in the description he will be bigger then 6/4.On genuinely good ground he would be an odds on shot for me.
 
It's going to absolutely tip it down on Saturday, yellow weather warning for whole of England including SE.
 
Which horses are suited and not by slow ground?

Obviously a huge negative for Australia and True Story.
 
The Derrinstown runners will be suited by it. I also think it was good to soft when Snow Sky won at Lingfield looking at the times.

Western Hymn whilst winning on horrible ground at Sandown, didn't look comfortable on it and he probably won't get away with it in such a strong field.
 
From the Irish Times:

Oxx confident ‘well bred’ Ebanoran capable of Derby glory
‘We can’t be sure about him staying the mile-and-a-half but that isn’t the worst complaint’

Ebanoran’s 16 to 1 Epsom Derby odds might suggest he faces an uphill task against Australia & Co in 10 days but the fact he will be only John Oxx’s fourth starter in racing’s blue-riband event is a statistic to be reckoned with.
Oxx’s record is one of the most remarkable in the Derby’s 234-year history with two winners: Sinndar (2000); Sea The Stars (2009); and a third from Alamshar in 2003 that the Curragh trainer still reckons was one that got away.
In comparison Ebanoran concedes experience and proven race-winning form to that illustrious trio. But despite that he is on course to take his chance.
First past the post in the Derrinstown Derby Trial earlier this month only to be placed behind Fascinating Rock by the stewards, the Aga Khan-owned colt plotted a somewhat wayward path up the Leopardstown straight but his trainer believes there could be valid reasons for that.
“It was just his third start and there was a slow pace. And sometimes when inexperienced horses sprint off a slow pace they can wobble a bit. It also probably wasn’t as bad as it looked,” said Oxx yesterday.
‘Tailor-made’ Australia “Declan [McDonogh] initially let him drift left and didn’t try to correct him because he wanted to get to the rail and make the others come round him. As for the second drift, it’s possible the horse ducked away from a photographer standing on a step
ladder near the post. He hadn’t done anything like that before and hopefully he will have learned from it.”
Oxx conceded the favourite Australia looks “tailor-made” for the Derby test but plenty will see significance in Ebanoran taking him on at all.
“It’s true the owner isn’t into running no-hopers and neither am I. We think this is a colt worth sending to Epsom. He’s . . . very well bred. We can’t be sure about him staying the mile-and-a-half but that isn’t the worst complaint. You would rather that than going there with an out-and-out stayer. Epsom is a test of stamina and speed,” he said.
Sinndar, Sea The Stars and Alamshar went to Epsom with four races under their belts while Ebanoran will have had only three, something that didn’t appear to overly concern the Curragh trainer.
Oxx’s Derby greats “Sinndar had won the Derrinstown and was about 10
to 1 on the day he won the Derby while Sea The Stars had won the Guineas and had an obvious favourite’s chance. Alamshar was surprising because he was the best horse in the race that year but didn’t win.
“It was a very big field and he wasn’t very big himself and we found out later he could get a little intimidated due to his lack of size. We held him up at Epsom and he never travelled. Afterwards he won the Irish Derby and the King George when he was up there and on the outside,” Oxx recalled, before outlining his take on the series of Derby trials this year.
“The Guineas is traditionally always the best trial and the favourite does look tailor-made for the job at Epsom. Apart from the Guineas, it’s hard to know which was the best trial, or if they were any good at all . . .
“But the two trials for a Derby horse in Ireland are the Ballysax and the Derrinstown and I think the Derrinstown was a good race this year. The connections of the first three obviously think their horses are good enough to go,” he added.
Declan McDonogh has ridden Ebanoran in all three of his starts to date and will maintain the partnership at Epsom.
 
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Which horses are suited and not by slow ground?

Obviously a huge negative for Australia and True Story.

On soft ground the race becomes a bit of a lottery. Just load up on ROTW in the preceding race and chill for the main event.
 
My bad. Should never back one of his ante-post, even if it was just a day or two before the decs. Be cheering on the none Ballydoyle horses in both the Oaks and the Derby.
 
So the first five in the betting then!

I'm saying that I've backed two (Australia and KH both before the Guineas) and the only dangers I see are the three mentioned (in answer to Hamm about Ebanoran's chances). I expect Australia to win, unless it becomes a slog when one of the St Leger types could come into it.

...Who do you fancy?
 
I'm saying that I've backed two (Australia and KH both before the Guineas) and the only dangers I see are the three mentioned (in answer to Hamm about Ebanoran's chances). I expect Australia to win, unless it becomes a slog when one of the St Leger types could come into it.

...Who do you fancy?

Wasn't being facetious just seemed odd to say the front five in the market were most likely winners!

I posted who I fancied yesterday but that might now look academic!
 
The 3 I have backed are Kingston Hill, True Story & Ebanoran.

I like KH as soon as I saw him and was impressed with the way he won the RP Trophy (not normally a race I like) and I think he won in spite of the ground not becauseif it. Hes a nice shape physically for Epsom too, and should be well-balanced enough.

TS I backed after the Dante as I thought he didn't handle the ground and I love Fallon esp round Epsom (not so sure if ground is on the softer side though now)

Ebanoran - well JO is a shrewd old boy and I thought he won on merit LTO. His 3rd the time before was a fair race too considering the ground he had to make up. I could make a big case for this horse. My one worry would be that he can be keen early on and he needs to relax, something that may be harder to do at Epsom. Physique-wise he is a well balanced, strong colt with a good turn of foot.

On breeding all 3 should stay with the latter being the only v slight doubt as hes by Oasis Dream but his dams side is stamina laden being out of top class racemare Ebadiyla who won the Irish Oaks and was Champion Irish 3yo filly.

I am not a huge Australia fan which means he'll probably go and win by 15 lengths and justify all the Coolmore hype. Physically he hasn't impressed me - he looked too lean and herring-gutted in the Guineas with nothing to work on at all. And as a 2yo he seemed to have no backside. Just not my type of horse. Mind you the last time I stuck my neck out and said I didn't like something for the Derby physically it was Commander in Chief!! :lol: (I said as he was "over at the knee" he wouldn't handle the descent! - kept my mouth shut after that!)
 
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