Road To The 2014 QM Champion Chase

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SlimChance

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It is unprecedented for a betting w/o market to be available for the Cheltenham festival in early October. That can only mean one thing, the race is already horrific e/w! We have five months to build a formidable position compared to the place market on exchanges when the tapes go up.

I'm looking for the forum's wisdom on what we feel will definitely be aimed at the race as looking at the top of the betting I have question marks against all of them.

At the moment I would put Baily Green forward as a plausible runner but it's something serious punters should be looking very closely at. you don't get many opportunities to have this much time with bad e/w.
 
In large part it will depend on how winnable the Ryanair looks. If Cue Card and Simonsig have good seasons diverting your horse to that race wont seem such a strong option.

Arvika Legionnaire won't be coming over and Captain Conan I can see missing the Festival for Aintree although if the Ryanir does look easier than my first paragraph he may go there. Was too handy in the Jewson.

At the prices 50/1 Overturn looks the best value in the market. He didn't like the ground in the Arkle and was given an awful ride at Aintree. If it's fast on the Wednesday I would expect him to turn up.

Baily Green looks more of a Ryanair type to me, especially on good ground
 
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I know he getting on a bit , but Sizing Europe hasn't got too many miles on the clock , due in the most part to his back injury. It will probably be his swansong and the 33/1 has already tempted me to put him in e/way bets. As already implied this could be a 3-5 runner race
 
Careful with overturn. He chipped a bone in his last race...wont be back till early next year. What price is Tap Night? Sizing is a great price if they can get him there!
 
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Kid Cassidy winning today is excellent news for the e/w sewer rats. We now have until the Tingle Creek to put this 2nd or 3rd Queen Mother beast in e/w multis at an artificially inflated price before he gets kicked around the place my Sprinter Sacre in the Tingle Creek and Gods know maybe bigger after! The time to bet like a scumbag is now!

Is the Queen Mother it's aim? Yes
Is it good enough to place? Yes
Is it a 4/1 shot to place in the QM? No

Steve Preston, owner of Sire De Grugy: "He didn't quite get up the hill. There were no real excuses. He was beaten fair and square on the day however, we did carry 10lb more so we're still the best horse in the race. Hopefully it will be the Tingle Creek next."
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Kid Cassidy won today ???

Sire de Grugy ( if you are talking about him rather than KC ) - doesn't handle Cheltenham IMO - he didn't against Captain Conan and didn't today- the risk is he won't turn up and will go to Sandown , Punchestown and/or Aintree instead.
 
Ardross said:
Kid Cassidy won today ???

Sire de Grugy ( if you are talking about him rather than KC ) - doesn't handle Cheltenham IMO - he didn't against Captain Conan and didn't today- the risk is he won't turn up and will go to Sandown , Punchestown and/or Aintree instead.
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Thanks, I've edited the post. I take your comments on board but given the likely make up of the QM this year you really only need to back a horse who is 50/50 to run to be getting massive value on the place part of the bet. I would say SDG is 1/5 to run in the QM if he's fit and well.
 
SlimChance said:
given the likely make up of the QM this year you really only need to back a horse who is 50/50 to run to be getting massive value on the place part of the bet.
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That being the case I'd rather have 20s about Flemenstar than 25s on SDG. Part of the reason being that if something does happen to Sprinter Sacre you have a very possible winner.
 
Euronymous said:
That being the case I'd rather have 20s about Flemenstar than 25s on SDG. Part of the reason being that if something does happen to Sprinter Sacre you have a very possible winner.
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If anything happens to SS then it's wide open but that's not the correct way to view the market now. I'm just looking for something that will be at least 11/10 to place on the machine on the day. Potentially you could be on something thats long odds on to be in the 3 but that's the challenge I face now, finding it and being bold sticking it in e/w multis with every bad e/w race between now and March.
 
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Remind me about last year. Was he definitely going to run in the QM before the setback?
 
SlimChance said:
Convince me?
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He's a two mile championship horse...they cannot consider going 3 miles plus this year. The only danger is him going the Ryanair route or missing Cheltenham altogether. The owner is a miserable fecker....2nd place dough for the Queen Mother is not far off the winners pot for Ryanair.

On the other hand I'm not one for investing my dough in November to get paid at 2/1 in March....with bad ew you are almost 100% of the time burning your win stake......I find that difficult to swallow....
 
On The Bridle said:
He's a two mile championship horse...they cannot consider going 3 miles plus this year. The only danger is him going the Ryanair route or missing Cheltenham altogether. The owner is a miserable fecker....2nd place dough for the Queen Mother is not far off the winners pot for Ryanair.

On the other hand I'm not one for investing my dough in November to get paid at 2/1 in March....with bad ew you are almost 100% of the time burning your win stake......I find that difficult to swallow....
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I'm not suggesting singles. I'm suggesting putting it in as the las leg of bad e/w multis for the winter to give you a chunky payout if the beast places in March. I'm completely writing off the win part, it's immaterial to the value you're getting on the place part.

.
 
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SlimChance said:
I'm not suggesting singles. I'm suggesting putting it in as the las leg of bad e/w multis for the winter to give you a chunky payout if the beast places in March. I'm completely writing off the win part, it's immaterial to the value you're getting on the place part.

.
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Excuse my dimness Slim but what exactly is bad each way?
Can you give me an example of bad e/w multis from now until March or April.
Thanks.
 
I backed a horse each way today. 3-1 second fav in an 8 runner race. I thought it would win (and it did), but it was nailed on to be in the frame.

That's bad each way.
 
Look at today's results

12.50 Plumpton
3.40 Leicester
3.50 Plumpton

E/W trebles on the obvious placed horse payed around 8/1 for the place part of the bet this morning. A place accum on Betfair would have paid around 3/1.

.
 
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BennyB said:
I backed a horse each way today. 3-1 second fav in an 8 runner race. I thought it would win (and it did), but it was nailed on to be in the frame.

That's bad each way.
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Not quite. It's when the place book is betting overbroke rather than something being a certainty to be placed.
 
I always took on board the advice of the great Alan Potts (the punter) who was very dismissive of ew betting. Good sound reasons . Not least because when you have a clear dominant horse who knows who will try and go with him and who will be burnt off. The one following in 20 lengths behind could be anything
 
SlimChance said:
Not quite. It's when the place book is betting overbroke rather than something being a certainty to be placed.
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It sounds like a grasp of maths is needed which is not my strong point but I get the general gist of it.

I'm guessing the GN would be a good example aswel.
 
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