Road To The 2014 QM Champion Chase

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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TWINLIGHT
6-y-o; bay gelding
Breeding: Muhtathir (UK) - Fairlight (GER)
Trained by W P Mullins
Form: 111241-1

Six-year-old who won at Punchestown Festival last season and went from 133 over hurdles to 153 over fences. ( Now 157 - will be 170 come Cheltenham imo)

W.P.Mullins says
“He’s another for our two-mile chasing division. In all his races last year he ran like that was as good as he is and yet he came out and ran against better opposition and seemed to improve and who knows… if he shows improvement this year he is going to be right up there with the best.”

Only btn twice in a 2m - 2m1f ch and that was by a hd on heavy and fell when challenging 3 out on first run over fences. Won all 5 of his other Chases over 2m-2m1f including 2 Grade 3's and a Grade 2. His latest readily drawing clear of Oscar Wells giving him 5lb at a time OscarS Well trainer was in great form. Oscars Well got close to Avrika Legionnaire at the Fairyhouse Christmas festival and btn 9L by A.L. at the Punchestown festival both off level weights. Twinlight bt O.W. comfortably 7L giving him 5lb on his latest run last month.
 
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clivex said:
I always took on board the advice of the great Alan Potts (the punter) who was very dismissive of ew betting. Good sound reasons . Not least because when you have a clear dominant horse who knows who will try and go with him and who will be burnt off. The one following in 20 lengths behind could be anything
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A valid point. The 4th in the first today was held up which made its place chances less likely. However the Betfair place market guided us all day to the 2nd and his price crashed before the off because people knew he was going to front run. He was still available at a value price e/w.
 
BennyB said:
Usually the case in this type of race though when there's a short priced favourite, no?
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Not necessarily. You could have three horses rated around the same and five no hopers or unexposed horses priced because of connections, the latter are the best oppurtunites to have it right off e/w.
 
fonz said:
It sounds like a grasp of maths is needed which is not my strong point but I get the general gist of it.

I'm guessing the GN would be a good example aswel.
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The Grand National is bad e/w but only because of the extra place terms offered by bookmakers.
 
SlimChance said:
Not necessarily. You could have three horses rated around the same and five no hopers or unexposed horses priced because of connections, the latter are the best oppurtunites to have it right off e/w.
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The race in question was the 3.10 at Leicester. I make the place book (at SP) 308%, so not overbroke. However I would still call it bad each way - the place book is still skewed by the short priced favourite and the 3-1 each way is better value than it should be.
 
I will never, ever back E/W in National Hunt (particularly Chases), and I would always advise anybody else no to do it, either.
Because there is one aspect of National Hunt which makes E/W betting on it a long-term losing exercise. FALLERS.
Up to 35% of runners in a race can fall ( novice chases at Aintree or Taunton for example). In effect you are taking Evens about a horse not falling when you could have had 5/1 Win bet against the same contingency for the same horse. The probability of a horse falling is the same whether you backed it to Win at 5/1 or put on a Place bet at 1/1. If it falls, you will of course lose both the Win and Place sides, but in the example above at least you are getting 5/1 against it happening by betting Win only as against 1/1.
You are getting no value for the Place part of your bet in Chases. You are burning half your stake when betting E/W in National Hunt.
 
Depends on the type of race and the jumping ability of the selection.

Novice chases perhaps, but if a horse has run 20 times and not fallen then the risk is obviously lower.
 
A "good" jumper can be brought down, Benny !
Case in point is Thomas Edison on Sunday. A horse with only one fall in 17 Nat Hunt races ............ but "brought down" in a further two races.
 
Didn't say it was without risk Icebreaker, just that it is lower with a good jumper.

Except for avoiding patently dodgy jumpers I tend to ignore 'jumping risk' when punting. You can't predict it and it works in your favour as often as it works against you - over time the net effect is zero.
 
Oh indeed, yes, we do tend to ignore jumping risk when betting ( even though we might subconsciously factor it in to the odds we back at).
But the fact is that the risk is there -- and the question remains why we should accept that risk at 1/5th the price rather than the full odds at Win only. There is a real and present risk of two out of five runners falling in a beginners chase; accepting that there is that 40% risk is it not more efficient to back against this eventuality happening to our selection at full odds rather than throwing the same amount again at it at one-fifth odds?
 
icebreaker said:
Oh indeed, yes, we do tend to ignore jumping risk when betting ( even though we might subconsciously factor it in to the odds we back at).
But the fact is that the risk is there -- and the question remains why we should accept that risk at 1/5th the price rather than the full odds at Win only. There is a real and present risk of two out of five runners falling in a beginners chase; accepting that there is that 40% risk is it not more efficient to back against this eventuality happening to our selection at full odds rather than throwing the same amount again at it at one-fifth odds?
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In novice chases, it's better to find an odds-on jolly to lay, and have the field running for you......imho, of course. Oscar Whisky would be a contemporary example (not that I laid him myself - no bet in the race).
 
Agree with that !
(And maybe even Place-lay that jolly instead coz it just might fall, don'tja know). :)
 
Mathematically the principle of ignoring jumping risk holds for place betting too.

If you've backed something each way in an 8 runner race and three of the others fall you are nailed on to place. Fallers will work in your favour as often as working against you.
 
icebreaker - the probability of a horse falling is already built into the place price on Betfair.
 
Others can Fall and help your horse to be placed

Also there is not so much trouble in racing and not so many unlucky horses with no place to run,
 
Let me educate a few of the clowns on here who wouldn't know maths if a calculator hopped off their forehead:

X-Factor

Nicholas McDonald 11/4
1/3 odds 1,2 Ladbrokes

Anyone like to tell me the 100% line on him finishing in the top 2?
 
SlimChance said:
Let me educate a few of the clowns on here who wouldn't know maths if a calculator hopped off their forehead:

X-Factor

Nicholas McDonald 11/4
1/3 odds 1,2 Ladbrokes

Anyone like to tell me the 100% line on him finishing in the top 2?
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Lads were still 3 places that market last week when 7 runners! I'd rather be on Rough Copy or Tamera EW to be honest but appreciate yours is a maths over opinion argument.

Some of you lot posting above should stop betting immediately if you can't understand the mathematics behind what Slim is telling you.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
Some of you lot posting above should stop betting immediately if you can't understand the mathematics behind what Slim is telling you.
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Oh for heaven's sake, give over with the glib assumptions.
Of course we understand the determining calculations of an E/W bet. (A reason that some of us didn't reply to his question was that it was framed in a belittling, insulting way, and we passed on dignifying it with a reply).

The arrogance of youth is sometimes staggering. Someone who has just been removed from his mammy's teat thinks he knows it all. Someone who secures a job with a bookmaking firm suddenly think they are the big-swinging-dicks of the gambling world.
If Slim Chance is still in-play in twenty years time which I strongly doubt , then I might be prepared to take lectures from him. In the meantime, I'll continue as I have done for the past thirty years, making a living from the sport in my own little way.
 
You clearly don't understand the mathematics behind EW betting if you don't realise the percentage chances of a horse falling is in the price!!!

Slim has pointed out a fantastic investment opportunity between now and March and if you can't see it, you should find a new hobby for your own financial health. There is no mathematical basis for opposing it whatsoever and if you can afford to have money tied up between now and March, you should be going all in EW on likely runners against Sprinter Sacre.
 
I understand the maths perfectly well. Do I win a prize?

Seriously though, this would be a good investment opportunity if we knew the runners. However the uncertainty around this is impossible to quantify.

All we can say is it's likely to be a good opportunity. Of course this changes if you have the inside track on what is intended to run.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Lads were still 3 places that market last week when 7 runners! I'd rather be on Rough Copy or Tamera EW to be honest but appreciate yours is a maths over opinion argument.

Some of you lot posting above should stop betting immediately if you can't understand the mathematics behind what Slim is telling you.
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I'm on him e/w at 7/2 and 11/4 1/4 1-3 with Sportingbet and Titanbet. My Titanbet account is hilarious. I'm around 3k in the hole but they're some of the best bets I've placed this year. They don't know how to spell each way never mind comprehend it!
 
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BennyB said:
Seriously though, this would be a good investment opportunity if we knew the runners. However the uncertainty around this is impossible to quantify.

All we can say is it's likely to be a good opportunity. Of course this changes if you have the inside track on what is intended to run.
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No, this is a fair point. If you can make an educated guess on the "more likely" ones you can take a hit on a couple being NRs if you back a few because of the value gained.

I appreciate most get it and the argument about guessing whats running is definitely valid but to suggest a horse might fall as a reason for not backing a bad EW bet is farcical at best!
 
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