Road To The 2014 QM Champion Chase

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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Gamla Stan said:
You clearly don't understand the mathematics behind EW betting if you don't realise the percentage chances of a horse falling is in the price!!!
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Again, please stop telling me what I do - and don't - understand. Stop making these lazy assumptions.
I did previously write about probability of falling as "we might subconsciously factor it in to the odds we back at".

Sir, I have intention whatsoever to go "all-in" E/W on all likely runners against Sprinter Sacre at this early stage. That kind of betting is not my style or strategy at all. But thanks for this wonderful piece of betting advice anyway. I'll let someone else capitalise on it, and wish them well.

Never mind betting E/W ante post, I just don't bet E/W on Chases, period. Call that stupid if you wish, but it's a rule-of-thumb that has served me well over the years.
 
icebreaker said:
Someone who secures a job with a bookmaking firm suddenly think they are the big-swinging-dicks of the gambling world.
If Slim Chance is still in-play in twenty years time which I strongly doubt , then I might be prepared to take lectures from him.
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Could you be any more condescending? So securing a job in the betting industry is why I know the angles?

So why was the Grand Slam Of Darts place market bet to 64% on the bottom half of the draw last week?

Why are cycling stages bad e/w?

Why was Australian Rules regular season this year bad e/w?

Why was the NBA divisions last year bad e/w?

Why are football cup competitions still 1/2 odds 1,2 with 8 teams remaining?

People working in the industry are some of the stupidest people I know, dont dislike me because I'm clever, I live far beyond my means. This thread is intended to use the intelligence of the forum (of which there is plenty) to work out the best angle of attack in the biggest betting oppurtunity of the year. But big swinging dicks like you would rather grind out twenty pence then have the guts to put the lot in with an edge of 40% and knock one out of the park.

I won't be in the game in twenty years time because all of these angles will be gone, not because I'll have gone broke.


.
 
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Sprinter Sacre wins this by 30+ lengths, you're guessing trying to find an edge in other horses and matching that with big prices. Alloy of people want to see things that are not there. They want to be the next clever dick who tries to fluke a big price place/win and claim it down to intense analysis from months ago. Lets put. This race under the carpet, Sprinter wins only an guessing eejit would think otherwise
 
FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
Sprinter Sacre wins this by 30+ lengths, you're guessing trying to find an edge in other horses and matching that with big prices. Alloy of people want to see things that are not there. They want to be the next clever dick who tries to fluke a big price place/win and claim it down to intense analysis from months ago. Lets put. This race under the carpet, Sprinter wins only an guessing eejit would think otherwise
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You're an idiot.
 
icebreaker said:
Never mind betting E/W ante post, I just don't bet E/W on Chases, period. Call that stupid if you wish, but it's a rule-of-thumb that has served me well over the years.
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I got a great piece of advice once. Get in while you can because there is someone younger than you and smarter than you on the way. The 18 year olds in betting shops now are using Betfair and the maths. Betting markets will be completely different in ten years time, mark my words.

You sir are a dinosaur.
 
The younger lads know the maths? The Math is a generic discipline that everyone can learn, there is no advantage, what math can you know that a trader at a bookmakers wouldn't? It's pretty common knowledge, computers are we're the difference in abilities arise not waking into a shop and waiting for 22% chance to move in to 25% on BF.

Betfair is overrated, anyone using it as a platform are deluded, it's like going to the desert ad trying to a 10 inch cactus on a 1 foot camel. The messages on there are so misleading, the money means nothing it's all put in play to swing the end users mentality, the race itself has no meaning, the money isn't shifted cause big bucks has a great chance of winning, it's the horse racing enthusiasts and form readers who have a better understanding of racing that belie the market is a chance indicator and you end up becoming easy food for the big fish
 
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FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
The younger lads know the maths? The Math is a generic discipline that everyone can learn, there is no advantage, what math can you know that a trader at a bookmakers wouldn't? It's pretty common knowledge, computers are we're the difference in abilities arise not waking into a shop and waiting for 22% chance to move in to 25% on BF.

Betfair is overrated, anyone using it as a platform are deluded, it's like going to the desert ad trying to a 10 inch cactus on a 1 foot camel. The messages on there are so misleading, the money means nothing it's all put in play to swing the end users mentality, the race itself has no meaning
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It's a massive misconception that the traders know the maths. Traders are some of the stupidest people I know.
 
They might be stupid but there software isn't, something you can't escape, computers are more powerful that man and you don't need to be clever any more to get the results you just need to kno how to use the equipment
 
FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
They might be stupid but there software isn't, something you can't escape, computers are more powerful that man and you don't need to be clever any more to get the results you just need to kno how to use the equipment
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You live in the world of the bookmaker always wins. Models throw up ricks. If they didnt bookmakers wouldn't close as many accounts as they do. Punters are getting smarter albeit a very small percentage of the overall pool but to think that traders are more intelligent is hilarious.
 
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At the end of th day, a bookmaker will be around a longtime after me and you have gone and its because their model ensures they can't lose. As long as a bookmaker stays the only means to being able to place a bet then you can't win in the long run, Betfair has tried to break this boundary but there's not enough losers out there willing to fork out the liability which means your playing devils advocate with smarter and more resourceful money and even playing against computers themselves which leaves you no chance.
 
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FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
At the end of th day, a bookmaker will be around a longtime after me and you have gone and its because their model ensures they can't lose. As long as a bookmaker stays the only means to being able to place a bet then you can't win in the long run, Betfair has tried to break this boundary but there's not enough losers out there willing to form out the liability which means your playing devils advocate with smarter and more resourceful money.
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Bookmakers win because the majority of their client base are idiots not because of their model. If it wasnt for Betfair they wouldn't know how to price a coin flip.
 
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FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
At the end of th day, a bookmaker will be around a longtime after me and you have gone and its because their model ensures they can't lose. As long as a bookmaker stays the only means to being able to place a bet then you can't win in the long run, Betfair has tried to break this boundary but there's not enough losers out there willing to fork out the liability which means your playing devils advocate with smarter and more resourceful money and even playing against computers themselves which leaves you no chance.
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Could you have missed the point any further? Seriously are you retarded?
 
Not really, you're telling me by knowing maths you can walk into a bookmakers and make a serious living because the people behind the screens have inferior maths and that Betfair can be used to exploit trader errors. Sounds like you're living in a dream world.
 
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FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
Not really, you're telling me by knowing maths you can walk into a bookmakers and make a serious living because the people behind the screens have inferior maths. Sounds like you're living in a dream world.
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All you need is an Iphone with Betfair and you could grind a living.
 
And all a bookmaker would have to do is issue a new policy that states if you're betting with other firms on any mobile devices we have the permission to have you removed. The cashiers can tell if you've been on your phone for long periods whilst doing nothing in the shop. (This is all theoretical they don't do this)
 
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FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
And all a bookmaker would have to do is issue a new policy that states if you're betting with other firms on any mobile devices we have the permission to have you removed. The cashiers can tell if you've been on your phone for long periods whilst doing nothing in the shop. (This is all theoretical they don't do this)
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You're boring me to death. You've done nothing to argue that all my points are not completely correct.
 
In 1966 Arkle won the Gold Cup for a 3rd time. The best of the rest around at the time What A Myth Stalbridge Colonist and Rondetto were no where to be found.

The job of trying to give Arkle a race was left to Dormant and the very ordinary Snaigow.

After slamming Mill House by 30 lengths the previous year it was hardly surprising nothing wanted to take him on.

Last year Sprinter Sacre was taken on by Sizing Europe one of the most consistent 2 milers you'd ever hope to come across. Sizing Europe would have held his own against any other 2 milers you would care to mention..Unlucky not to have won a Champion Hurdle he is pure class.

As good as he is/was Sprinter Sacre outpointed him hands down in pretty much the same way as Arkle exposed of Mill House in "65"

So who in their right mind is going to take Sprinter Sacre on if there's a possibility they can go elsewhere and win.

Most owners of top class chasers aren't so much interested in picking up place money as they are actually having a Cheltenham winner.

I think what we are looking for is something that has nowhere else to go.

Sizing Europe may well have another crack. Wouldn't surprise me if they did as their record of going places they shouldn't is there for all to see.

There's more chance of me running in the race than Simonsig. He's got a huge chance in the Ryanair and despite having won the Arkle he's no more a true 2 miler than flying in the air. Only 2 of his 9 wins have come at the minimum distance and he's too much of a fireball to be racing alongside the likes of Sprinter Sacre.

Cue Card will obviously go for the Ryanair again and Dyanaste could step up even further and be aimed at the Gold Cup should he win the Betfair Chase.

Nw Flemenstar is with a real trainer he could go anywhere. However I doubt if Tony Martin has any intentions of going the 2 mile route when the horse clearly gets 2m5f with ease.

Somersby on the other hand wouldn't get the Ryanair trip round Cheltenham in a horse box. Mich Channon did run him at Ascot over 2m5f but while he never got blow in against Cue Card and was well beaten, it was noticeable he had run out of stamina near the end.

I doubt if Mick Channon will have any chance of running him anywhere else other than in the QMCC and that's as good an excuse to bet him to follow Sprinter Sacre home than any.
 
icebreaker said:
Up to 35% of runners in a race can fall ( novice chases at Aintree or Taunton for example). In effect you are taking Evens about a horse not falling when you could have had 5/1 Win bet against the same contingency for the same horse. The probability of a horse falling is the same whether you backed it to Win at 5/1 or put on a Place bet at 1/1. If it falls, you will of course lose both the Win and Place sides, but in the example above at least you are getting 5/1 against it happening by betting Win only as against 1/1.
You are getting no value for the Place part of your bet in Chases. You are burning half your stake when betting E/W in National Hunt.
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The stats for horses falling in NH racing is about 5% overall..having 35% of a field fall obviously happens..but as has been stated NH racing has that built into all prices.

I would say you get a similar risk to a degree on the flat with horses not trying at all..which you seem to get a lot more of than over the sticks..more opportunities for another day etc...getting bad luck in running on the flat is also a hazard.

Either way..a NH horse falls..you lose..on the flat you back a total nontrier or unlucky horse..you lose

I'm not convinced there is a deal in it
 
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